Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet – Race 3 (7) Milos Filos
Best Value – Race 4 (8) Singapore Splash
Best Roughie – Race 6 (11) Whiskey And Beer
Turf Talk
- Kyneton is a tricky track with a short home straight and it is rarely a disadvantage to be on speed.
- The surface has played reasonably well of late, although it has had a fair amount of racing.
- Momentum is key. You need to be building before the home bend, no matter where you settle.
- With firm ground expected today, runners settling in the first four should have an advantage.
Key stats
- Grahame Begg is the king of Kyneton, operating at a 36.4% strike rate at the track. His stable has had a lean patch but the horses are starting to find form again.
- Lloyd Kennewell is striking at 22.1% from his last 100 runners.
- Anthony and Sam Freedman have a 23.1% strike rate when bringing runners to Kyneton.
- Danny O’Brien has been riding in good form for a while, striking at 20% from his last 100 rides and beating market expectation.
- Not many in-form jockeys head to the meeting. John Allen has ridden 18 winners from his last 100 rides and has a 17% strike rate at Kyneton. Zac Spain (5%), Patrick Moloney (4%) and Dan Stackhouse (9%) are all below their usual strike rates from their past 100 rides.
Race 2
(2) Egyptian Thorn is the horse to beat. He was sent out big odds on debut at Seymour where he drifted back from a wide gate before smashing the line to run second. The third horse from that race has since won. He draws better today and shouldn’t need to settle far off the speed, having jumped well in earlier jump-outs.
Suggested Bet: Egyptian Thorn WIN – the $2.10+ on offer appeals.
Race 3
(7) Milos Filos is clearly the horse to beat. Her two runs this preparation have been very good. She hit the line strongly at Geelong before finishing behind the handy Gold Coast Belle at Seymour, who has since run second in town, with impressive Sandown winner Dirty Look back in third. It looks a strong form race and the rise to 1200m suits. She’s drawn to get a nice run.
(5) Head Capitalist has trialled like she has improved this preparation. She maps well and can figure in the finish.
(3) Chloe First draws a little awkwardly but will appreciate the rise to 1200m and should be strong late.
Suggested Bet: (7) Milos Filos WIN – $3.20 looks a good price.
Race 4
Love the jump-outs of (8) Singapore Splash. He showed ability last preparation without making it to the races, and both jump-outs this time in have been strong. He was given a quiet time but moved well at Colac before winning his latest piece of work impressively at Bendigo. The time was only fair but he kept going strongly through the line. Mitch Aitken rides on debut after sitting on him in that latest jump-out. Drawn well to press forward and make his own luck in what looks a very winnable race.
Not sure where to look for dangers as it’s not an overly strong race. (10) Zousouth has a crossover noseband going on and has been given six weeks between runs, so can improve.
(13) Playful As has jumped out OK and can use the pole draw.
Suggested Bet: (8) Singapore Splash WIN – $8.50 looks good shopping.
Race 6
(11) Whiskey And Beer looks the best roughie on the card. Drawn wide and will get back, but he’s a big horse who seems to need galloping room. He showed a degree of talent early in his career but hasn’t had continuity of racing, possibly due to issues. He was held up at a crucial stage first-up over this track and trip but I thought he worked home well. With a good tempo likely here he can get back and hammer the line.
(7) Star Territory will also settle back with Whiskey And Beer but can close strongly. Winkers go on and he should be at peak fitness third-up.
Suggested Bet: (11) Whiskey And Beer EACH-WAY – opened $23 and still looks value around $15.
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