The mark of true greatness in Australian racing is not only to dominate the top level but do it by beating the handicapper.
Australia’s big handicap winners are littered with our greatest horses and you only have to look to Black Caviar winning a Newmarket and Winx an Epsom and a Doncaster.
Generally, the handicap wins come as they emerge, where they are challenged to show their superiority.
Tentyris and Autumn Glow could face that challenge in the next month or so.
They could have different answers to the challenge.
Autumn Glow will be given her mark in the Doncaster this week.
What would be the number to tempt Chris Waller to set her the Winx’s task.
Winx lumped 56.5kg to Doncaster victory, Autumn Glow could get less, which would have James McDonald watching the weight as well.
It is hard to assess what her weight she could get at the moment, because Racing NSW’s handicapper still hadn’t updated her benchmark from the Apollo Stakes, even a week after it was run. A problem that trainers constantly complain about.
It appears Godolphin are less likely to test Tentyris in the Newmarket on March 7, with a big weight.
Tentyris is an even-money chance in the Newmarket, so tread cautiously betting on futures.
There are suggestions he could be in Sydney on the first weekend in March for the Challenge Stakes or wait for the William Reid Stakes at weight-for-age before the TJ Smith at The Championships.
But his biggest challenge will be Royal Ascot in the middle of the year, where Godolphin Australia has rarely had a runner.
That could be in the thinking when it comes to the Newmarket.
Tentyris still has a long year of racing left.
Slipper doesn’t fit for Hard Kick
When David Hayes was back in Australia to lift The Everest with Ka Ying Rising last year, he made a ready-to-run purchase, which has hit the jackpot.
He parted with $140,000 for a two-year-old, which is now known as Talindert Stakes winner Hard Kick.
“I got beaten on another two at that sale and end up with him,” Hayes said. “It was one of two winners I had on the trip.
“The boys said he was pretty good, and he showed that at Flemington last week.
“He was not in the Blue Diamond or Golden Slipper, so we are going to take our time with him, instead paying late entry fees.”
While Hard Kick was in Saturday’s Blue Diamond his stocks grew, so where next?
Hayes denied rumours Hard Kick had been sold to Hong Kong, but admitted it was the natural progression for his career.
“Being a gelding and an All Too Hard, he is the right horse for up here, particularly with what he is doing,” Hayes said.
“I can see that happening, but for now, the family still owns him and we might look at a couple of big races in the spring, like the Danehill and the Coolmore.
“He is having a short break at the moment, while the boys decide where his next run will be.”
Coolmore Super Seth coup
Coolmore pulled off a $50 million masterstroke when they bought sensational stallion Super Seth from Waikato Stud.
The deal values Super Seth at $70 million as Coolmore now own an almost 80 per cent of him.
In the competitive bloodstock market, Tom Magnier swooped over to New Zealand last week and within a couple of days had secured the stallion, who stood $NZ75,000 with competitors having a clue.
In the Hunter, his price will soar to $120,000 to $140,000 a serve and he will mate with Coolmore’s elite band of mares.
Coolmore have only bought Encosta De Lago and Wootton Bassett as proven producers, so he big shoes to fit.
The reason is Super Seth’s first couple of crops, which have numbers comparable to Redoute’s Choice.
He has produced mile group 1 winner and a Derby winner, but with a more precocious group of mares, he will get a star two-year-old in the next couple of years.
Rain brings Group 1 value
Tempted and Autumn Glow are odds-on favourites for the first Sydney Group 1 races for 2026, but the possibility of heavy rain looms large.
There is more than 40mm of rain expected on Thursday and Friday, which could make wet-tracker’s good value in the futures.
Light Fingers Stakes winner Savvy Hallie has a win on the heavy, so $11 is worth a ticket in the Surround Stakes, while Ceolwulf, the Champion Mile winner on a bog, is $11 chance in the Verry Elleegant Stakes.
Even on a dry track I think both will figure in the finish and they will start shorter with track conditions in their favour.
