With the Magic Millions fields drawn on Monday, it appears two-year-old Classic favourite Warwoven and market leader Ninja for the three-year-old Guineas are to move in different directions.
Both have been around the even-money for the past week, but before Tuesday’s barrier draw, the unbeaten Warwoven is out to $2.20, while Ninja has been wounded in $1.75.
It is a trend that should continue through to Saturday.
Racing in the MyRacehorse silks, Ninja was devastating in the Vo Rogue Stakes last time out and appears to have a significant class edge on his rivals. It would be amazing if he doesn’t start a lot shorter than $1.75 on Saturday,
The Vo Rogue could prove Ninja’s Super Impose moment, where he got back in the field for the first time and delivered a booming finish.
Tommy Berry will be comfortable riding him from any barrier because he knows the motor to win when he changes into overdrive.
The next group in betting, Icarian Dream, O’Ole and Memo have consistent form but appear to have found their level, where Ninja is still on the way up.
The back-up three-year-olds from Magic Millions Gold night might provide the value.
Maiden winner Spanish Treasure seems good at $34 and $7 the place after finding the front from a wide gate and leading throughout last Saturday. He ran fourth behind Grafterburners and Sylph, who shared the main end of the Sunlight money, at its previous start and showed 1400m wasn’t a problem in breaking his maiden.
The market for the two-year-old swung behind Warwoven after his stablemate Paradoxium was ruled out.
He has been impressive, winning both his appearances. He ran over the top of Gimcrack Stakes and Pearl winner Shiki on debut, and then did what was expected of him in Brisbane a fortnight ago.
But $2.20 is a Storm Boy or Capitalist like quote, and he is not in that class. It should continue to drift, especially if he draws poorly.
Second favourite Zip Lock has put a gap in his rivals twice, beating impressive Gold Nugget winner Itchintogo on debut before taking care of highly-touted Victoria Tornado Valley in the Bruce McLachlan Stakes.
He is certainly underrated being a Queenslander, and the $8 is over the odds.
Itchintogo did what was expected at short quotes in the Gold Nugget and Phelan Ready Stakes should be respected, but real value might be in Unit Five.
He won the Magic Millions race at Caulfield at his only start and has had a barrier trial at the Gold Coast since. History says it is very hard for Victorians to win the Magic Millions, but with a good gate, he will start in single figures, not the $15 available on Monday.
Betting strategy pre barrier draw:
Magic Millions Classic
Back Zip Lock and Unit Five each way and hope for a good draw.
Magic Millions Guineas
Ninja looks the winner but if your not into playing odds-on, take the $7 the place Spanish Treasure.
