The team at Racelab has run the numbers on Map Of Stars, putting the French galloper through a ratings and form prism to work out whether he’s a genuine Cox Plate contender or simply arriving with a big reputation. With the horse looking increasingly likely to line up in Australasia’s greatest weight-for-age race this spring, we’ve dug into what his figures actually say – and whether they stack up against what’s required to win at Flemington in October.
Map Of Stars – Contender or Pretender for the Spring Carnival?
French galloper Map Of Stars has emerged as a potential Spring Carnival raider, with the Cox Plate both reportedly under consideration.
But what do the numbers say? Can he measure up in Australasia’s greatest WFA race?
Map Of Stars was most recently seen at Royal Ascot, winning the Wolferton Stakes, steaming home from the tail under James McDonald.
From a Racelab perspective, the answer isn’t quite as straightforward as his Royal Ascot victory might suggest.
Maps OF Stars’ peak rating commands respect
Strip everything back and there’s one performance doing most of the heavy lifting here: the Prix Ganay at Longchamp in April 2025. Sent out favourite, Map Of Stars ran down to a quarter-length of Sosie and comfortably held out Al Riffa – a name Australian fans know well. Racelab clocked that run at 110, his career-best by some margin.
And that form has held up beautifully. Sosie went on to add two more Group 1s to his CV, including the Hong Kong Vase. This isn’t soft form propped up by a lucky day – it’s genuine, elite-level racing that proves Map Of Stars has the ability to mix it at the very top when the stars align (pun very much intended).
But he’s a hose that runs hot and cold
Here’s where it gets complicated. Off the back of that career-high, he flopped at Royal Ascot, then bounced back in Germany with a 109 when runner-up to Tornado Alert – promising, except Tornado Alert hasn’t raced since, so there’s no way to really pressure-test that figure. His next start over 2400m at Longchamp was a dud, and he was spelled shortly after.
Sound like a pattern? It should. This horse blows hot and cold, and the numbers back it up.
This Preparation
Fast forward to his current campaign, and the puzzle continues. He resumed at odds of 2/1 in Listed company and could only manage third for a 102, then followed up with another performance that undersold him.
Connections made two changes: they gave him 44 days between runs and dropped him back in trip for the Wolferton. It worked – McDonald rode him to perfection and Map Of Stars was back in the winner’s circle. But the Racelab figure tells the real story: 105. Solid, not spectacular, in what looked like a moderate renewal. For context, one of the horses he beat, Adelaide River, has had three preparations to win in Australia, and to date has come up empty.
None of that rules out improvement on our shores. It just means the Wolferton win didn’t exactly scream “Cox Plate contender.”
McDonald and Graffard on Map Of Stars
McDonald, for his part, couldn’t speak highly enough of the horse afterwards.
“He’s an absolutely beautiful horse,” he said. “Mr Graffard is the Chris Waller of France. It’s an amazing opportunity. He gave me a fantastic feel. He’s obviously a very good horse.”
Trainer Francis-Henri Graffard was even more telling in his assessment: “The horse travelled really relaxed and, when he’s like that, he has an amazing turn of foot. This horse has let us down a few times, but when he’s on one of his good days, he is a great horse.”
That’s really the crux of it. Even his own trainer knows this horse is capable of both brilliance and disappointment – the trick is knowing which one shows up.
His best is undoubtedly good enough to be competitive internationally.
The challenge is working out which version turns up on race day.
Cox Plate?
History suggests he’d likely need to produce something in the 111–113 Racelab rating range to seriously threaten in a Cox Plate.
The problem?
We’ve only seen him reach that level once, back in April 2025, and he hasn’t looked particularly close to reproducing it since.
Racelab Verdict
Nobody’s arguing about the talent. The Prix Ganay proves it’s there. But Australian racing has seen this movie before – European imports rolling in with glittering resumes, only to find the Spring Carnival asks a very different question.
Right now, Map Of Stars is a horse who could win big if everything clicks, or just as easily produce a number that leaves him nowhere near the placings. Until he shows he can hit that Prix Ganay peak more than once, that uncertainty is the whole story.
For what it’s worth, if James McDonald has a choice to make, Birdman looks the safer play – proven on Australian tracks, multiple preps in the Waller stable, and form already at the level this race demands. Both are currently $15, but there’s an argument Birdman is the value pick at that price while Map Of Stars looks decidedly skinny.
Contender? Yes.
Pretender? Not quite.
But he’s still got something to prove.
