Turf Talk:
- Patterns have varied this winter. The winners came from back and wide for a couple of successive meetings but part of that was wind related.
- Key has been to get free of the significant kickback and build momentum.
- Horses for courses track and there are plenty of synthetic stars going around today.
Key stats:
- Small sample size, but apprentice Olivia East has ridden four winners from ten rides at this track (two on Cumboogle). She’s a naturally positive rider and think synthetic tracks suit her style.
- John Allen has had a good season here at Ballarat and goes at 23% across his career on the surface.
- Tony and Calvin McEvoy are always hard to beat here, going at 34.7% across their career, slightly higher than market expectation.
- Ann-Jeanette Tindale has had four winners from nine runners at this track in 2026.
Race 2
Good maiden. (5) Commandeur has had plenty of chances but Frankie Stockdale looks to have him flying. Got a mile back and covered ground at Narrandera first up but was clearly the best of the backmarkers despite laying in badly. Was huge in a strong maiden at Pakenham last start when stepping to a more suitable 1200m and form gate two here should get a lovely run on speed. If he can hold his rating then the $10 is huge overs.
Loved how strong (12) Fine Sierra was through the line in her recent jump-out at Pakenham. Harry Coffey on a plus. Debut run at Pakenham was terrific before running well in a handy Geelong Diamond. Gets the 2yo weight allowance here and with a good ride can be winning first up.
(9) Vegas Missile has acquitted himself well in two runs to date. Thought he had every chance despite covering ground (four-wide horse wasn’t beaten far) in a pretty moderate maiden last start. Strips fitter again and gets a gun run.
(2) Bohemian Star didn’t get mobile until he got clear of the kickback on debut but was strong late once he did. Johnny Allen sticks. Will be strong late.
Suggested bet: Good race. I am 1×3 E/W on Commandeur. Playing a few exotics outlined in the quinella/trifecta tab.
Race 3
Concede (2) Done My Job is deserving of favouritism. Big run on a leaders track at Casterton two back before narrowly missing this track and trip last start. Johnny Allen sticks and he should be a pair closer today from a soft draw. That said, we are being asked to take $2.40, which looks rock bottom.
Having something small E/W (9) Star Of Tennyson who comes through a very weak maiden last start but I think he’s ready now third up. Forgive the fresh run at Donald where he got too far back. Trials on this track prior to his first up run were good.
Suggested bet: Something small E/W Star Of Tennyson. Done My Job a deserving favourite.
Keen on (1) Ashina. Best run of her first campaign was first up over 1500m at Cranbourne when second to Hotatius, who went on to win again at its next start before going to HK. Her jump-outs on the Cranbourne synthetic leading in have been good and like Johnny Allen form wide draws over these middle distance trips here on the Ballarat Synthetic.
Always have added respect for the Begg runners and that’s the case with (7) Outsidethesquare who gets blinkers on after a pretty plain debut at Bendigo. This is weaker and the step in trip from a good gate are positives.
(2) Crafty Queen relished getting to this track last start but that was a very moderate race she ran in – she can win, but seems short enough as favourite.
Suggested bet: Keen Ashina and at the price can back her 1×3 EW
Race 5
Couple of real synthetic specialists engaged here. (2) Life Sentence will either lead or sit outside the leader. He is airborne. Huge run last time out when setting a cracking tempo before being nabbed right on the line by Join The Queue, with a big fab back to third which was (1) Dramaticus. Meets the toppy under the same weight conditions, draws ideally and whilst the end of 1500m might look a concern, his Qld form would suggest it isn’t. Isolate his synthetic/poly form in Vic and Qld and it’s outstanding.
(7) Tolpuddle is a good roughie. Total forgive at Caulfield last time out. Had no luck at Cranbourne the start prior. Must have some issues as they keep giving him 7 weeks between runs but the best of him is very good. If they wider lanes are again a plus or they go mad up front, he will charge late. Raceday form on this track is terrible form his days with Andrew Noblet, but the horse simply wasn’t going well full stop and his trials on the track have been OK.
(11) King Alla is up in grade here but he should have won last start, his first go on the surface. Ann Tindale’s horses are flying here at Ballarat and this bloke can run well at a big price. Dramaticus again has a hope and he has won here on the Ballarat synth were as Surreal I Am comes to the surface for the first time.
Suggested bet: Keen on Surreal I am. Having a few coins on Tolpuddle as well.
Race 7
(1) Cumboogle is a great E/W bet at double figures. Had the measure of a handy synthetic horse El Pibe De Oro twice at this track and trip His run here last start was far better than the 4th or 7 would suggest – it was a day leaders had no hope and he sat three wide, outside the speed, with the other two leaders being beaten 8L and 16L respectively. Olivia East has been on board for both his wins and I think he will come across and sit outside
(2) Mafee and prove mighty hard to beat. Speaking of Mafee, the form around him is strong. Beaten by a flying Lake Forest in track record time and then posted a strong win at the Pakenham Synthetic last time when holding on grimly late after setting a strong tempo.
(12) Whitson strikes a much stronger race bit he will be closing hard late.
Suggested bet: Backing Cumboogle 1×3 E/W at the $11 and having something on Mafee, as well. Keen that one of the two wins.
