Race 1
Keen on (1) I’lberiding’shotgun. He was given no hope the way the race was run at Ballarat first up but come home the second best last splits of the entire meeting. Has since trialled very well and the step to 1200m is ideal. Draws wide, but wider lanes have been the G-O at Donald recently and don’t expect it to be any different with the rail out three on a rain-affected track.
The unknown is (2) Pappa Ritch who comes from the astute Shane Jackson yard. Has trialled nicely for this and there was plenty of early support.
(8) Cute Girl beat I’lberiding’shotgun home when they met at Terang last campaign but the latter has fitness on his side and Cute Girl has had just one jump-out. Is also unknown on wet ground.
That said, is a key hope. (7) Tasvo is consistent and ran well last start, but did have a big pattern in his favour. Not sure on the drop back to 1200m, but will be thereabouts.
Suggested bet: Keen E/W 1×3 I’lberiding’shotgun. Has tightened up since first posted but still think ~$7 is value.
Race 2
Backing (5) The Judge Ruled E/W here. Jump-outs either side of his debut have been strong. Big, loping gelding that looks like he will get further in time. Thought his debut run at Kilmore had merit, too, got back around a tricky track but worked home OK in a race that featured plenty of subsequent winners. Drawn for a perfect run and think 1350m here suits much better than the 1100m of his debut.
(8) Full Display looks the horse to beat. Has run well in both starts to date. Drawn out which does mean she’s probably ridden pretty quietly, but those wider lanes have been in play at recent meetings.
Suggested bet: Something E/W The Judge Ruled.
Race 6
Throw at the stumps here on (5) Grumpoldcol who is having his first start for Rachel Samsonenko. On his form, you’d mark him a billion to one. The only race he’s won was a non-TAB four horse race at Moranbah! His form is utterly putrid. However, there is a flicker of hope in his one jump-out since coming down south where he sat on speed and pulled away to win well under his own steam. He also resumes with bandages off, which can only be a plus. Hopefully they let him rip with the 4kg claim and give the field something to catch. Going to go around a huge price, but will do so with a few of my dollars on.
The old boy (3) Raging Monkey looks hard to beat. Think the claim is valuable for Olivia East, who is riding well. This bloke is racing in great heart and only needs to hold his form to prove awfully hard to beat.
(1) Cool Jakey will be strong late. (2) Rockliff was good first up.
Suggested bet: Something 1×3 E/W Grumpyoldcol and a win bet on Raging Monkey.
