Matt Welsh’s Echuca Tips: Best bets, value plays and a few exotics for your Friday

Race 4

Looks reasonable speed which should suit (2) I’lberiding’shotgun. Liked this bloke last start at Donald and he was unlucky not to win there, getting a mile back and charging late. He has been a bit slot out in all starts, which is costly, but with a long run from the 1400m start before they turn hoping Johnny Allen can be a bit more positive. I think he’s got the most upside in the race and you can draw a form reference to the favourite, Iberian Lynx, through Tsavo who I’lberidingshotgun was able to beat home last start.

(6) Prestige Zerprise looks a massive price at $34. He was only getting warm late first up over 1200m at Pakenham, home the 2nd best last 200m split of the meeting. If you keep watching that race past the post he quickly charges through most of the field. Already been winning form out of that and the step to 1400m is ideal. First time on genuinely wet ground but we don’t yet know he won’t handle it.

(13) You Said What was narrowly beaten at Wodonga last start with a big gap back to third. Was five-weeks between runs there. Will give a sight up on speed.

(10) Azulita looks the other key chance. Ran well on debut at Ballarat then got back on a day you needed to be on speed at Bendigo last start – ran well considering. 1400m suits.

Suggested bet: Backing I’lberidin’shotgun. Something on Prestige Zerprise at a big price. Playing a 2,6,13 quinella and 2,6,10,13 trifecta.

Race 6

Assuming the Heavy 9 rating is correct then (5) Tel Aviv looks clearly the horse to beat in this race. She has been relishing wet tracks this campaign and there are plenty of question marks around her opposition in the going. He should control the tempo with Lachie King jumping back in the saddle and the drop back from 1746m to a more suitable mile is perfect. No star, but this is a great setup for her.

(6) Pick Wisely is suited back up to a mile. Handled a very wet Kilmore two back, so heavy deck no issues.

(3) Mickio is 41-days between runs and strikes a heavy deck for the first time, but he’s got a bit of class on his side in a moderate race.

Suggested bet: Backing Tel Aviv. Quinella 5,6.

Race 7

(2) Gina’s A Star is absolutely the horse to beat. Dominant maiden win two back and was far from disgrace at Bendigo up to 1100m. Dropping back to the 1000m suits and Zac Moore rides frontrunners well. That said, she’s $1.85 and that looks under the odds, in my humblest.

Give (6) Needawinna an E/W hope at double-figure odds. She can mis her form a bit but she goes well for apprentice Ella Bent, who comes to Echuca for the one ride. This mares win here at Echuca back in March produced a rating strong enough to win this and she has no issues with heavy decks. She can lay out a bit the NSW way of going so having the rail on the other side suits. No moral, but think she runs well at a price.

(1) Per Ivy was good in a stronger race at Sale last start. Is a genuine 1000m mare who likes wet decks. She’s in the game.

(4) Lack Of Restraint is a mare I’ve always had some time for. She comes into this off a long spell and probably wants further, but has jumped-out nicely.

Suggested bet: Think the race is a little deeper than the market suggests. Something 1×3 EW Needawinna. Taking 1,2,4,6 in the quaddie.

Give (16) Toyz In Zouland a chance at odds. Seems a different horse this campaign – her second preparation for Craig Widfison. Beat home subsequent impressive winner Risky Whisky first up at Albury before being forced to make her run in the inferior ground at Goulburn last start. Draws ideally to camp off a hot tempo and get to the middle/outside of the track late. $15 seems overs.

Hate the gate for (6) Shelly’s Legacy, but think he’s going well. The 1200m always looked beyond him early in his career but he got the 1170m at Wangaratta on a bog track last start. Has had six weeks between runs but liked his jump-out in that time. The knock is gate two which is shocking for him as he will drift back and need luck trying to find the right part of the track.

(3) Sub Gauge is airborne. Bolted in last start at Bairnsdale and Steph Hateley knows the horse well.

He won’t run a bad race. (2) Tapo has the pads coming off here and third-up is ready to try 1200m again. Pushes forward and makes her own luck. Loves this track.

Suggested bet: Something small on Shelly’s Legacy and Toyz In Zouland to round out the day.