Turf Talk:
- Rail right out in the 11m position
- Forecast calls for rain every day between now and Saturday, including on raceday – track is clearly going to be rain affected.
- Think they will be using plenty of the track in the straight.
Key Stats:
- The Maher stable is going at 25% (48% PoT) from their last 100 runners which is impressive for a barn of their size.
- Patrick Payne continues to find the winner’s circle in winter – 24% SR last 100 (PoT 29.9%).
- Jabez Johnstone has several key rides on Saturday, he has ridden 7 winners from his last 15 rides.
- Luke Nolen is below the normal standard he sets having ridden 6 winners form his past 100 (-44.5% PoT).
- Billy Egan continues to feature in this segment, his success largely tied to that of Patrick Payne (22% SR/17.4% PoT).
Race 1
The speed map is an interesting one. (3) Running Rich looks the likely leader, while the tactics on (2) Portarlington and (9) Satono’s Shout could shape the race. My inclination is that both will be content to take a sit rather than force the issue. With Jordan Childs aboard, (14) South Yarra Miss may be the one to roll forward after showing intent in a recent jump-out. Overall, it looks an even tempo.
(4) Star Of Macedon was heavily supported at Caulfield last start but effectively lost his chance when missing the start. Despite that, the run still had plenty of merit. The wider draw looks a positive here, as does the bigger track. He’ll likely appreciate a mile in time, but the rise to 1400m looks ideal at this stage of his preparation. I also like that the stable has spaced his runs with three weeks between starts after a busy period around his debut.
(1) Fontein Jewel produced an excellent closing effort in the Elvstroem Classic at Swan Hill after breaking his maiden in dominant fashion on a heavy track at Pakenham the run before. The wet ground holds no fears and the way he found the line last start suggests he’s ready to be competitive again.
(2) Portarlington should give a good sight near the speed. He was strong through the line in Adelaide last start and has built a solid fitness base for the rise to 1400m. If he gets control of the race at any stage, he’ll take catching.
(8) Make ‘Em All appeals as a debutant capable of running well. He hit the line strongly in a recent Werribee jump-out and looks like a horse that will appreciate getting out to 1400m straight away. The profile suggests he can measure up first-up.
Selections:
(4) Star Of Macedon
(1) Fontein Jewel
(2) Portarlington
(10) Youmzain Express
Suggested bet: Happy to watch.
Race 2
The Maher-trained (1) Decalogue looks the horse to beat. He was competitive enough to contest the Group 2 Tulloch Stakes earlier in the campaign and has continued to improve with racing. While he’s been up for a long preparation, few stables manage their stayers better than Maher’s. He remains well treated at the weights, carrying the same 56kg after Jabez Johnstone’s claim, and comes off a dominant last-start victory.
(4) Harbour Town caught the eye at Sale, sticking to his task despite having runners around him and needing to work through traffic to find clear running. The field he beat may not have been particularly strong, but it was against older horses and this three-year-old staying crop doesn’t look especially deep. He profiles as one of the main dangers.
(13) She’s Got The Cash should enjoy a soft run from barrier one, settling around midfield with cover. She’ll need some luck at the right time, but if the gaps appear in the straight she has the turn of foot to make her presence felt late.
Selections:
(1) Decalogue
(4) Harbour Town
(13) She’s Got The Cash
(3) Our Chief
Suggested bet: Decalogue the horse to beat
Race 3
(6) Tajanis can give a really good sight on speed. He was tough to the line in the Sandown Cup when narrowly beaten by (5) The Western Front. That was his first run for Charlotte Littlefield and was seven weeks between runs, so should have good benefit to come. Gets a little weight turnaround on The Western Front.
(1) Bold Soul looks ready now third-up and his last few at Flemington around this distance mark last winter were super, including this race last year. Just kept running into backsides when trying to make ground last start having been strong late over 1700m at Warrnambool.
(3) Virtuous Circle looks ready now fourth-up. Ran well in this race last year with 58.5kg and now drops in weight. Thought he was good to the line in the same race as Bold Soul.
(2) Tempesti could well get his preferred heavy going on Saturday.
Selections:
(1) Bold Soul
(3) Virtuous Circle
(6) Tajanis
(5) The Western Front
Suggested bet: Tough race.
Race 4
Race has really changed complexion with Ice Kool coming out.
Don’t think (2) Blethyn quite got the 1200m last start and is better suited back in trip. Did have the right run last start but brings as good a rating as anything to this race and is drawn well out wide.
(5) Recuperato has drawn awkwardly down low but sheesh, not sure she could have trialled much better! She’s a straight-track winner as a 2yo and think she’s in for a good campaign.
(8) Jenni The Ninja has trialled up nicely. Had a lot of favours (cover from wind) the day she won down the straight, but her debut win proved it was no fluke. Drawn well.
(4) Choir Point copped a brilliant ride from Dakotah Keane when winning at Caulfield last start. It was a dominant win, but think it needs to be tempered a touch as she got into the absolute fast lane. Has a turn of foot that lends itself to straight-track racing and heavy no issue.
(11) Tatakai Uta won narrowly last time out but he cost himself by laying in badly. Concern here is drawn low he may want to lay back to the inside, which could be an issue unless they come up the fence. Think he’s got talent.
Selections:
(2) Blethyn
(5) Recuperato
(8) Jenni The Ninja
(4) Choir Point
Suggested bet: Small bets Blethyn and Recuperato.
Race 5
They don’t trial much better than (8) Ten Commandments did leading into this his first campaign for the Maher stable. He then backed that up with an exceptional win at Sandown, covering ground, before winning by 4.5L hard held. Key to this bloke is wet ground as he doesn’t go a yard on good decks, which won’t be a concern Saturday. Up in grade but gets down to 54kg and maps for a sweet run.
(14) Thebelmontgangster is on the quick back-up and is racing well. Maps for a perfect run from gate four and gets down in weight rising in grade.
Selections:
(8) Ten Commandments
(14) Thebelmontgangster
(3) Madero
(9) Capper Thirtynine
Suggested bet: If Ten Commandments holds his form of last start he’s the horse to beat.
Race 6
(3) Miss Aria got back off a slow tempo behind (2) Duchess Zou and had no hope with that race shape. Was home the best last 600m split of the meeting. Blinkers and Craig Williams on are a big plus. She has had excuses in all three runs this campaign and is going better than the form suggests. Maybe Willo puts her into the race with the shades on.
Thought (4) It’s A Knockout ran very well first-up this track and trip. Had to change course to get clean air in the straight and hit the line stronger than Spione, who was a well backed fave. Never won second-up but all four runs have had merit and maps nicely for an in-form apprentice.
Third week in a row (8) First Chorus has been entered – scratched the last two with a significant foot abscess. The wetter the better for her and now drops in weight rising in grade. Clearly right in the game.
(10) Changing Colours has trialled nicely for the new stable. Was saved from last week for this.
Selections:
(4) It’s A Knockout
(3) Miss Aria
(8) First Chorus
(10) Changing Colours
Suggested bet: Good dutch (backing both to win the same amount) Miss Aria/It’s A Knockout.
Race 7
Cracking race.
(4) Losesomewinmore is a genuine Flemington straight-track specialist. He’s won from different parts of the track, whether charging down the outside fence or closer to the inside, and possesses a sharp turn of foot. His best ratings have all come at this course and the draw in gate 12 looks ideal. Lachie Neindorf takes the ride and, while he’s had five weeks between runs, he tends to perform well when kept fresh. The break looks a deliberate move to target this race.
(14) Moby Dick is another who thrives down the straight, particularly on rain-affected ground, conditions he’s likely to get here. The inside draw isn’t ideal compared to the wider alley he enjoyed last start, but his overall profile keeps him right in the mix and the double-figure price appeals.
(2) New York Lustre has been given a freshen-up since the Goodwood and her recent trial suggests she’s come through that run in good order.
(6) De Bergerac is a capable straight-track performer and meets Losesomewinmore 2.5kg better at the weights. He’ll appreciate that advantage, although he still needs to bridge a reasonable ratings gap.
Selections:
(4) Losesomewinmore
(14) Moby Dick
(2) New York Lustre
(6) De Bergerac
Suggested bet: Backing both Losesomewinmore and Moby Dick – keen to bet.
Race 8
Like (3) Saint George. He was enormous first-up over a mile in the Seymour Cup last preparation and has looked in good order at the trials leading into this return. He maps to settle closer than he did in that mile run and gets in very well at the weights with the 3kg claim for the in-form Jabez Johnstone. Extremely wet ground would be a concern, but otherwise he looks the one they have to beat.
(4) Punch Lane backs up quickly from last weekend where he was solid enough after enjoying a soft lead at Sandown. His record on a quick turnaround is excellent, winning three of four attempts, with the lone defeat coming in a Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap. Those three quick-back-up victories all rate among the best performances of his career.
(2) Jimmy The Bear had conditions to suit last start, but he’s a proven winter performer and always demands respect at this time of year. Holly Durnan has now had a couple of rides on him, making the claim a valuable asset. The inside draw isn’t ideal and he’ll need some luck from there, but he did win this race 12 months ago.
(5) Al Duca was racing consistently before being caught wide throughout in the Bendigo Golden Mile. He’s been freshened since and should roll forward with Craig Williams taking the ride. The trial between runs was only fair, but if he can rediscover the form that saw him chase home Taken on multiple occasions during the autumn, he’ll be very hard to run down.
Selections:
(3) Saint George
(4) Punch Lane
(5) Al Duca
(2) Jimmy The Bear
Suggested bet: Backing Saint George
Race 9
Loved the run of (10) Obvious at Caulfield. He raced in the inferior ground yet stuck on strongly to finish second behind Clevor Trever, which looks solid form for a race of this nature. I don’t think that performance came out of nowhere either. He had trialled well beforehand and had genuine excuses in a couple of runs prior. If he reproduces that effort, he’s right in the finish.
I’ve been a big fan of (8) Paddypie since his jump-outs this preparation and he has lived up to the hype with impressive wins at Seymour and Donald. The form from his debut victory has worked out particularly well and he overcame a less-than-ideal run to score convincingly last start. The inside draw is the key variable. It could help if he continues to lay in, but it becomes a negative if runners are looking to get away from the rail later in the day.
A number of these clash again after meeting at Flemington last start.
(4) Dirnaseer and (2) Kaleo dead-heated in that race and there may not be much separating them again. Dirnaseer is likely to settle a long way back, so he’ll need the race shape and pattern to suit. Both horses are racing in terrific form and are aided by useful apprentice claims from riders who know them well.
The race shape and track conditions didn’t suit (3) Flying Done last time and he’s capable of bouncing back, provided the ground doesn’t become too heavy and leaders aren’t heavily disadvantaged. The same can be said for (13) Lucky Lucky Boom, who raced in the inferior ground and should improve third-up. He maps to settle closer to the speed and can be much more competitive.
(11) Palladium looks a massive price based on his sixth placing in that same Flemington race. He settled near the rear from a wide draw after being a touch slow away but worked home well late. From gate three he should settle much closer and his current odds look far longer than they should be.
Selections:
(8) Paddypie
(10) Obvious
(11) Palladium
(4) Dirnaseer
Suggested bet: Would want to see the inside is OK before backing Paddypie, but he’s got the upside. Can have something small Palladium at 60/1.
