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Matt Welsh thinks Astari can run well on Monday. (Credit: Racing Photos)

Matt Welsh thinks Astari can run well on Monday. (Credit: Racing Photos)

Matt Welsh with a couple of early plays for Pakenham Monday

Plenty of racing action in Victoria on Monday and Matt Welsh has found a couple he's keen to back in early markets

Matt Welsh by Matt Welsh
July 5, 2026
in Breaking, Tips, VIC Tips
Reading Time: 1 min read
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Race 7 No.3 Astari ($7 @ TAB)

This gelding trialled just ‘OK’ leading into the campaign before missing the kick first up over 1000m. His race was all over before the home bend but he ratteled home the best last 400/200m splits of the meeting. Ideally suited up to 1200m and provided he jumps cleanly I’d expect him to settle more forward in the run. Has a 4kg claimer on, which is a risk, but provided he jumps OK he maps for a really soft run and it gets him well away from his maiden danger in (1) Godtfred Kirk at the weights. Think he’s a good bet at $7 and can see him starting shorter.

 

Race 9 No.6 Mr Crafty ($15 @ TAB), smaller on No.5 Express Guard ($11 TAB)

Wide open race to finish. Have always had some time for (6) Mr Crafty. He trialled up well leading into the campaign and just got too far out of his ground first up this track over 1200m. He was strong to, and through, the line, and the step to 1400m here is ideal. Like a senior rider taking over as he can get quite keen. Think he’s a big price at $14.

(5) Express Guard had no luck this track and trip last start. This is his first campaign for Brad Cunningham who trains locally here at Pakenham and he clearly enjoyed the surface. Drawn out, but he’s a horse that will get back anyway, so not worried about that. Think he will be strong late.

Tags: Best betsBetsyHorse Racing TipsMatt WelshMonday racingPakenhamPakenham TipsVictorian Racing
Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh is the founder of Betsy and one of Australia’s most respected form analysts. A former executive at Racing.com and Racing Victoria, Matt has built a reputation for market-leading analysis, clear communication, and a deep understanding of both racing and wagering. With Betsy, he has assembled a team of trusted, high-quality form analysts dedicated to delivering expert analysis that will arm Betsy punters for a winning day at the races.

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