Race 1
Provided (7) Hello Mistress jumps cleanly I can get her pretty short in this market. She has always shown enough talent to be winning at least a maiden. Blew the kick first up this track and trip but got home strongly in a race where the three that finished in front of her all won their next starts. She then jumped much better at Ballarat and sat on a good tempo when beaten a length. Third horse won yesterday at Ballarat and the winner ran well up in grade. 975m ideal and now they’ve hopefully sorted her barrier manners she is going to be awfully hard to beat.
At odds, (4) Carlow Rose can run a race. She knocked up late on debut but it was in a very strong race and in the mid-stages she was climbing over heels looking for a run. Look, she may be an 800m horse that can’t let down on raceday, but I liked her recent Wodonga trial and she may even lead them up over the 975m.
The other hope is Cicconi Rain. Comes through a slowly run 1100m where her and Australian Legacy dominated an average group of rivals from the top. Not sure the drop back to 975m suits but still on the improve.
Suggested bet: Keen Hello Mistress. Just having something small on Carlow Rose at $26 to win on the race if she wins.
Race 2
The three 2yos seeking a late-season win look the key to the race.
Reckon (7) Inside Word should be shorter. than the $4 + on offer. He’s had several jump-outs across his career and shown good ability. Of his three jump-outs this time in, the one poor effort was on what looked a very choppy/heavy Werribee track. He showed good toe in his latest synthetic track hit-out, running the fastest time of the morning in winning. Interesting that his last two trials have been in blinkers but doesn’t sport them on debut. From gate two he can probably lead and control the race. Like the 975m for him.
(8) Ride Like Michelle is the main danger. Interesting a daughter of Russian Camelot kicking off at 975m, but she has looked sharp in her jump-outs. She was given a soft time in a very slow St Arnaud jump-out before winning her latest at Seymour against an unraced stablemate. It was hard to see all of that jump-out at sun glare was blinding, but she looked to move well throughout. Despite the fact she has looked sharp in jump-outs still think she will be better over further in time.
That said, she has the ability to win what looks a weak maiden on debut. (9) What Once Was trialled up much better last campaign than this time in. Showed very good speed in belting Vellasglory in a sharp piece of work last preparation. Looked a little more one-paced in his recent Caulfield Heath 1000m trial.
Suggested bet: Think Inside Word and Ride Like Michelle should be much closer in the market. Backing Inside Word. Quinella 7,8.
Race 3
(2) Bozza looks a great E/W bet at $10. Home the best last 200m split of the meeting on debut at Ballarat, finishing not far behind stablemate Bohemian Star who was able to win yesterday. Can settle closer from gate six up to 1300m (drew out and copped a bump at the start on debut).
(12) Aurum Star looks a big price at $34. He has been well held together in recent jump-outs at Ballarat and Donald, but moved well in each. Probably settles second-half here but will be strong late.
Over the odds. Can certainly understand why the money has come for (7) Budjik Queen. She has moved nicely in her jump-outs, draws a good gate on debut and looks perfectly suited to 1300m at her first outing. Short enough now, but goes in all exotics.
Suggested bet: Backing Bozza 1×3 EW, something small on Aurum Star at a big price. Quinella 2,7,12.
Race 6
(9) Tesoro Mio should get a lovely camp on the back of the speed, which looks to be set by (6) Morning Ralph and (5) Codename. This filly got down in the weights at Cranbourne last time out and ran well up near a good speed. Stays down in the weights with Zac Moore’s claim and 900-1000m is her go, don’t think she gets 1100m at all. With a soft run, think she can be winning.
(4) Les Garcons is the best horse in the race but he’s only had one run in 13 months, and it was a poor one. Trials have been OK. Thought Morning Ralph won well last time out. First and second cleared out from the rest and they ran reasonable time.
Suggested bet: Something on Tesoro Mio.
Race 7
Like the setup for (3) National Code. Drawn out, but they have a reasonable run down the back straight before the home bend, so plenty of time to find a spot. Suspect they might be more positive on her out to 1200m with the blinkers on the first time. She was only 1.75L off Tennessee Bound at Caulfield Heath two back and then wanted to lay in late but was strong to the post at Bendigo last start. Like a left-handed rider in Will Gordon taking over as she has wanted to lay in quite badly in recent starts and he would’ve come in handy at Bendigo last time.
(6) Bonfire Jimmy had no luck at Ballarat last time out. Drawn gate one and can use that to sit on speed provided he jumps cleanly. Step to 1200m is ideal.
Suggested bet: Keen National Code.
