Race 3
This looks a super race for (7) Just Desserts to kick off his career. Clearly not the most straightforward horse making his debut as a 4yo with ear-muffs (pre race), lugging bit and a tongue tie for his debut, but sheesh he looks suited to synthetic tracks. Trialled well on a firm turf deck last year but he’s looked a different horse in two synthetic track trials here at Pakenham. Has a lovely change-up speed when asked for an effort and think 1400m will be ideal on debut. Akira Sugawara couldn’t pull him up past the post in one of the fastest 1000m jump-outs of the morning on July 21. W
ouldn’t shock to see (9) Vallo run well. Poor first up but maybe didn’t love having the blinkers on, which come off here. Only had one jump-out leading into the campaign, too, so may have been wanting for fitness. Think he’s has ability and maps for a lovely run.
Suggested bet: Backing Just Desserts
Race 4
Thought (2) Cosmic Shower was very good first up off a long spell, riding a hot tempo and stick on well in a hot maiden. Went back last start which wasn’t the right play (was half slow, but also seemed a tactic). Despite being beaten 2L, thought she would’ve challenged the winner with even luck. Draws perfectly today and looks ready to win now third up.
(4) Mahrajan was terrific riding a strong tempo this track and trip first up. Was beaten by what looked a handy debutant there and set a cracking tempo out in front. She looked to relish the synthetic and being ridden positively.
Wouldn’t shock if (15) Kung Fu Panda ran better than the 20/1 price tag would suggest. Has trialled up quite well on this surface.
Suggested bet: Like Cosmic Shower.
Race 5
Cracking race with plenty of early speed. (1) Mafee, (2) Margin Call, (5) Bold Print, (9) Australian Call, (13) Jack The Judge and (14) It’s Gnarly all like to roll forward, so the tempo should be genuine.
That sets the race up nicely for the closers, with (7) Stormburg and (8) Astari looking the two capable of charging over the top late. They clashed two starts ago over 1000m when both settled well back and had little luck. Stormburg repeatedly searched for runs before finally getting clear late to storm into second, while Astari didn’t see daylight until the final 150m but still produced the quickest last 200m of the meeting.
Astari was ridden much closer when stepping to 1200m last start, worked hard through the middle stages and was only fair late. The race shape didn’t suit, and the booking of experienced senior rider Daniel Stackhouse looks a significant positive.
Stormburg again finished runner-up last start over 1000m, charging home behind Shocap. It was another strong performance and, while all of his best form has come at 1000m, he looks ready for 1100m. From a wide draw, he should be able to settle back off the hot speed, find clear air and be launching late.
(3) Duel Venture is another that will get back and close late. He has a big peak rating on the Pakenham Synthetic from the winter of 2024 and he was good late in a fast 1200m event last start.
Suggested bet: Backing Stormburg and Astari with a bit of confidence.
Race 6
Not 100% sure who ends up leading but there is good speed here with (8) Isdell, (9) Military Base likely to compete for the top. (10) Outside The Square, (15) Stella Cadente also roll forward.
Convinced (4) Tolpuddle is going better than the form card suggests. Since joining the Ryan yard he has had a most interrupted preparation, with the only run that wasn’t off a seven-week gap being a luckless effort at Cranbourne on April 10. He was in the backwash at Ballarat last start, coming back covered in sand, but ran well behind a smart one in Surreal I Am. He now finally gets a bit of continuity with his racing, backing up within 20 days, and like both the wide draw and genuine tempo. Declan Bates hasn’t ridden him on raceday but has in a trial. He will get back and charge late – looks over the odds.
(11) Queen Beira is flying since joining the Goodwin stable, and getting onto the Pakenham Synthetic. Up in grade today but was a dominant win last start (Iluvcoffee was luckless in behind). Sticky map today, but has jumped-out nicely between runs.
Blake Shinn rides for family here aboard (7) Iluvcoffee. He had absolutely no luck this track and trip last start and looks ready to win now. (1) Hiulkster has relished getting away from wet ground and onto this surface – his last two runs have him right in the finish of this.
Suggested bet: Decent bet 1×3 E/W Tolpuddle at $15, also sending Iluvcoffee around a winner, looks value at $8.
Race 7
Deep race. Favourite, (10) Savannah Chill, looks very short. Yes, she was quite dominant this track over 1400m last start but she had a lot of favours, getting back off a strong tempo in a race dominated by the swoopers. Was also $26 there. Happy to work around her at the short odds.
(3) Kagemusha has plenty of upside and he has trialled well on the Ballarat Synthetic since joining the Taige Weir yard. Go back to his run on Ballarat Cup Day and he wasn’t far off Harry’s Yacht, which is great form for a race like this. Taige is doing a great job with these tried horses early in their careers and think she has this horse in good order ahead of today’s assignment. It’s such a plus for the stable that her partner, Will Gordon, is riding all these horses in work, trials and on raceday. He can run a big race at odds.
Think another roughie in (11) Queen Of Tuscany is over the odds at 40/1. Formerly trained by Robbie Griffths, she had a good winter last year, including running second this track and trip to Reset The Jazz in a BM70. Form went off the boil over summer but think Rachael Cunningham has her going better than the formguide would suggest. She didn’t have the best of luck here last time out and the step to a mile is ideal. Nolen jumping in the saddle is an added bonus.
(1) His Finest Hour can run well fresh while (2) Banknote Hustler was riding a hot speed in the race won by Savannah Chill last start and the run was much better than it looked.
Suggested bet: Backing Kagemusha/Queen Of Tuscany. Having a quinella: 1,2,3,11.
