The Melbourne Cup is one of the toughest betting puzzles of the year, with a capacity field of stayers tackling the famous 3200m at Flemington. The 2026 edition looks typically open and with several international raiders there’s a stack of replay-watching to take in!
Matt Welsh breaks down the likely tempo, assesses the key chances and identifies the runners he wants to be backing in the race that stops a nation.
The track:
The forecast is for rain on Monday.: anywhere between 4mm and 20mm. Speaking with Flemington track manager Liam O’Keffee on Sunday morning it’s unlikely he is going to water ahead of that forecast rain, which is the ideal scenario for punters. The track was in remarkably good condition at the end of Derby Day, especially given it was the second meeting un successive weeks in the true. Will walk the track Monday, but a best guess would be horses may be easing away form the fence with the rail out 3m on Tuesday. The main thing is, every horse should get their chance and it will come down to talent.
Speed map:
There is no clear-cut leader in this year’s Cup, but with plenty of go-forward horses drawn wide, I expect a good tempo early. Of Joseph O’Brien’s crew, (19) Kizlyar looks the one they’ll put into the race. (7) Royal Supremacy is drawn wide, so their hand is probably forced, and the same goes for (8) Wine Dark Sea. (6) Enfjaar and So You Are are drawn ideally and should settle on speed, while (20) Point Of Law should get a good trail. Ultimately, I think one of Kizlyar, Royal Supremacy or So You Are leads.
The leading contenders:
Huge fan of (2) Trustyourinstinct. Legendary Irish owner J.P. McManus nearly won the race last year with Goodie Two Shoes and I think he can go one better with this bloke. Not concerned by the wide draw as he’ll get back anyway and it should ensure a clear passage in the straight. This flashy chestnut has a brilliant turn of foot and his Curragh Cup win over Happy Pharoah and Al Riffa (second favourite in last year’s Cup) reads well. His St Leger run before boarding the plane was the perfect Cup lead-up. Handles wet and dry, and has J-Mac aboard. The only concern is the pre-race earmuffs, suggesting he can get unsettled in the parade. In front of 100,000 people, that’s worth watching.
Gee, I reckon (4) Middle Earth is primed to run a massive race. He’s been poking along at the back in each of his five runs this campaign, building towards a massive peak on Tuesday. His work through the line in last week’s Cox Plate was excellent. He ran a bottler in the Cup last year and there’s every reason to think he’s going better now. The one knock is gate one, as he’ll need luck, but Mark Zahra (along with J-Mac) is as good a big-race rider as we have. I can see him settling in a similar position to Without A Fight in 2023, in the back third on the rails, and hopefully Zahra can produce a similar steer through traffic.
Earlier this century, the Geelong Cup became the pre-eminent Melbourne Cup lead-up. Media Puzzle, Americain and Dunaden all completed the double. The race had gone off the boil, but the lure of the Golden Ticket attracted a quality field this year. (20) Point Of Law rode a hot speed and was too good at Geelong, and I suspect that form will hold up. He’s tackling the Cup at just his sixth start and still does plenty wrong, both pre-race and in the run. That’s his biggest challenge. But he has a quality hoop in Ethan Brown and should get a super run in transit. The parade is vital. If he handles the chaos of Cup Day, he’s a leading contender.
(11) Juja Kibo continues to improve. He’s performed well in both slowly and strongly run races this campaign. He can grind it out off a hot tempo but also has a turn of foot, as evidenced by his Moonee Valley Cup win, where he clocked the fourth-best last 200m split of the meeting. Sammy Clipperton has got the best out of him this campaign. There’s still a query at 3200m, but I don’t think he’s ever gone better.
The best roughie might be (19) Kizlyar. He snuck into the field after stablemate Defiantly was withdrawn on Saturday morning. He was backed off the map in the Moonee Valley Cup but copped a farcically slow tempo that didn't suit his racing style. A winner over 4000m at Royal Ascot, he’ll stay all day.
(24) Shockletz put in a lovely Melbourne Cup trial in the Tesio on Cox Plate Day. It’s an unusual path to the Cup, but who could doubt anything Ciaron Maher does? The blinkers went on last start and only helped. She’s had an ideal campaign, gets in with a very winnable weight and loves Flemington.
The toppy (1) Sons And Lovers is a good gate horse and should jump well and capitalise on barrier three. He got quite keen when posted deep in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and wouldn't want to repeat that over 3200m. He led and won a three-horse war in the Prix Maurice de Nieuil at Longchamp. Tough effort, but I'm not convinced it was the strongest race, with a little Presage Nocturne form tied in through one of the placegetters. He comes here off a second in the Kiltertan Stakes, where (10) Goodie Two Shoes and (18) James J Braddock finished back in the ruck. One thing he will do, provided he doesn't over-race, is stay the trip.
Can tie (12) Hopewell Rock’s form in with (20) Point Of Law through Geelong Cup runner-up Small Fry, who Hopewell Rock beat home two starts back at Goodwood. He looks the type to settle just beyond midfield and work into the race from the home bend. Narrowly beaten in the Ebor in a driving three-horse finish. A great chance for Zac Lloyd to win the Cup.
(10) Goodie Two Shoes won the Lillie Langtry two starts back, the same race she ran third in last year before finishing second in the Cup. The concern is she was very plain at her final start before boarding the plane. This is at least as strong a Cup as last year and she has an extra 3.5kg.
As always, there are so many angles to this year’s Cup. But if you asked me to describe the finish, I can see two of the world’s best jockeys, James McDonald and Mark Zahra, drawing clear over the final furlong to fight out a stirring battle, much like they did in Saturday’s Coolmore. Trustyourinstinct and Middle Earth on top for me; Kizlyar the best of the bolters.
Selections
(2) Trustyourinstinct
(4) Middle Earth
(19) Kizlyar
(20) Point Of Law
Suggested bets: Main bets on Trustyourinstinct and Middle Earth, with something on Kizlyar at a huge price.
