Barriers have now been drawn for the 2025 Melbourne Cup; a few of the internationals have certainly drawn the visitor’s gate while the favourite Half Yours firmed after drawing ideally in eight.
But, what does it all mean for the speed map? Matt Welsh has outlined how he thinks they will settle as they pass the winning post the first time in the 2025 Melbourne Cup.
The Flemington 3200m:
- They have a long run down the home straight before they hit the sharp bottom bend. So whilst barriers are important, they aren’t the be-all and end-all.
- Looking back at past Melbourne Cups, there is generally a three-wide line, which in recent times has been horses in the second-half of the field.
- Noteworthy that those who are positive out of the gates, are generally able to find themselves either on the rail or one off, with the first half of the field tending to spread more.
- Recent winners have settled 17th, 15th, 14th, 9th, 1st, 4th, 20th, 9th, 14th, 8th at the 800m mark.
- Barriers 5 and 11 have been the most successful with eight wins each. There have been six winners from each of barriers 14 and 19.
Matt Welsh’s speed map for the 2025 Melbourne Cup (blue = advantaged, pink = disadvantaged)
Key points:
- On paper it looks to be an even speed, with Changingoftheguard slowly working across from the widest draw to lead.
- Suspect the one horse that may significantly alter on the above speed map is Goodie Two Shoes, she’s not the best beginner but can muster the first furlong, do they roll more forward and ensure a genuine tempo for Al Riffa?
- River of Stars, Half Yours, Presage Nocturne and Buckaroo all look to get perfect runs in the race.
- Meydaan is a neutral beginner, James McDonald could look to follow Torranzino across and try and slot in just forward of midfield.
- Neither Parchment Party nor Flatten The Curve seem to have much speed, suspect they end up in the back third of the field.
- The well-backed Valiant King is out the back, but he’d be there if he drew gate 1 or 24, so that’s no issue for him.
Current bet365 market (prices correct as at 11am, 02/11/23):
| Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Bet365 Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| AL RIFFA (FR) | Joseph O’Brien | Mark Zahra | $9 |
| BUCKAROO (GB) | Chris Waller | Craig Williams | $9 |
| ARAPAHO (FR) | Bjorn Baker | Ms Rachel King | $51 |
| VAUBAN (FR) | Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | Blake Shinn | $26 |
| CHEVALIER ROSE (JPN) | Hisashi Shimizu | Damian Lane | $41 |
| PRESAGE NOCTURNE (IRE) | Alessandro Botti | Stephane Pasquier | $8.50 |
| MIDDLE EARTH (GB) | Ciaron Maher | Ethan Brown | $41 |
| MEYDAAN (IRE) | Simon & Ed Crisford | James McDonald | $17 |
| ABSURDE (FR) | Willie Mullins | Kerrin McEvoy | $23 |
| FLATTEN THE CURVE (FR) | Henk Grewe | Thore Hammer Hansen | $26 |
| LAND LEGEND (FR) | Chris Waller | Joao Moreira | $101 |
| SMOKIN’ ROMANS (NZ) | Ciaron Maher | Ben Melham | $101 |
| CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (IRE) | Kris Lees | Tim Clark | $101 |
| HALF YOURS | Tony & Calvin McEvoy | Ms Jamie Melham | $7 |
| MORE FELONS (IRE) | Chris Waller | Tommy Berry | $51 |
| ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (USA) | Brian Ellison | Harry Coffey | $19 |
| FURTHUR (IRE) | Andrew Balding | Michael Dee | $23 |
| PARCHMENT PARTY (USA) | William Mott | John Velazquez | $51 |
| ATHABASCAN (FR) | John O’Shea & Tom Charlton | Declan Bates | $81 |
| GOODIE TWO SHOES (IRE) | Joseph O’Brien | Wayne Lordan | $41 |
| RIVER OF STARS (IRE) | Chris Waller | Beau Mertens | $17 |
| ROYAL SUPREMACY (IRE) | Ciaron Maher | Robbie Dolan | $34 |
| TORRANZINO (NZ) | Paul Preusker | Ms Celine Gaudray | $34 |
| VALIANT KING (GB) | Chris Waller | Jye McNeil | $8 |
