Turf talk:
- Well we get away from the wet tracks in Victoria to a dry deck up at Mildura for Cup Day.
- Track generally races very fairly, horses can make ground with the right run in transit.
- It’s a track I approach with good confidence.
- 1400m start (Cup start) has a lovely run down the back straight before they start turning.
Key stats:
- Patrick Payne strikes at 30.5% at Mildura across his training career, beating market expectations from a decent sample size.
- Tony and Calvin McEvoy are another stable that have good success here, going at 27.8% across their career (15% PoT).
- Kylie Vella took out last years Cup, she has had 10 winners from the 30 runners she has brought to Mildura.
- Dean Yendall has plenty of experience here, striking at 24.6% across his career.
- Steven Vella is another rider who goes well at Mildura boasting a 34.8% strike rate at a PoT of 67.7% – many of those for his wife Kylie.
Race 3
(2) Just Like Jagger was super on debut at Geelong, having trialled nicely prior. Simply got too far back and was never a winning hope turning for home, but rattled late. 43 days between runs but suspect the stable would’ve targeted this race, as they often do with the Mildura Carnival. With even luck, he should be winning, but I will be wanting black figures to bet.
(5) Shujinko may have a head start on Just Like Jagger. Liked his recent trial at St Arnaud – looks to have come back well from a long spell. Yendall will be aggressive of gate one and should be in this a long way.
(6) Havana Moon is the other winning hope. Nice jump-out between runs.
Thought (10) Unstirred was just fair in trials prior to his debut and quickly knocked up when he did hit the track. Ear Muffs go on here to try and settle him pre race.
Suggested bet: Just Like Jagger on top, but only betting if get $2.20 +, which may not eventuate.
Race 5
Not alot of speed which will give (8) Kick Your Knees Up a chance to lead and prove hard to catch. Like the booking of Harry Coffey. Well beaten last start but that was on a heavy deck and best form is on top of the ground. Has generally run well fresh in the past and comes into this off 49 days. She’s a genuine 1000m horse who should be in this a long way.
Thought (3) Superisatic was unlucky not to beat (1) Demojo home when they clashed at Swan Hill and this bloke has since run super at Bendigo. Bolted in to win his maiden at this track back last year and like Johnny Allen jupming back aboard. Demojo can absolutely win. Was eased out of the race last start – total forgive. Very good when covering ground the start prior.
Suggested bet: Backing Suprisatic and Kick Your Knees Up
Race 7
Really like (1) Run Harry Run in this year’s Cup. It looks like they’ve been saving him for a dry track, which they get here. Jump-outs have been excellent. Won the Ararat Bowl first up at 1300m last campaign, the 1400m here is even more suitable. Maps ideally and has Harry Coffey aboard. Ticks plenty of boxes.
Early money for (2) Sav On Ice is noteworthy. This horses best puts him right in the finish of this. He was too bad to be true in the Manihi when last at the sports but has since changed stable to Garret Lynch. A must for the quaddie.
(6) Harmonious Senora won this race first up last year, albeit that was off a much shorter spell and it was a weaker edition of the race. She is a good fresh horse who would’ve been set for this and from gate four she will get a lovely run.
(4) Fine Future is racing very well. Back 200m in trip but that won’t worry him. He will get back and swoop late. Yendall looking for back-to-back Cups.
Suggested bet: Keen on Run Harry Run. Something small Harmoniuos Senora at odds, too.
Race 8
(6) Princes Toro looks the best value on the card. Peak performance of her career was first up over 1300m when winning at Bendigo last campaign. She has jumped-out very well for this return and good that Will Gordon had a sit on her in that last hit-out, as she can be ‘hit and miss’ at barrier rise. So long as horses can make ground – which we will know by the last race(!) – she will be strong late. Seems huge odds at $15.
(3) Zorro’s Flight and (4) El Trecero were the victims of interference from Chowdown at Sale last start; interference that ultimately saw Zorro’s Flight promoted to first. That said, I thought El Trecero was probably unlucky not to win that race and he should have a headstart today, plus gets a senior rider taking over.
Suggested bet: Having a good E/W bet on Princess Toro and something on El Trecero to win on the race if he gets the cash. Like the race.
