Turf talk:
- The track raced well on Day 1 of the Carnival with horses able to win from most lanes.
- On speed was no disadvantage, but as the day goes on today suspect they may get a bit wider on the track.
Key stats:
- Patrick Payne has plenty of key runners today – he strikes at 30% at Mildura across his career (8.1% PoT).
- Steven Vella is a jockey that knows this circuit well. He’s going at 32.7% across his riding career at Mildura (PoT 40.8%).
Race 1
Concede (2) Codename is a huge chance, but think he’s under the odds at $2. He had his chance at Bendigo last time out and was pretty weak late. That said, this is easier and he may be even better getting back on top of the ground.
Reckon (3) Defy Gravity is over the odds at $6. He does a lot wrong, this bloke. Head up, lays in, but will only get better with racing. He went out hard over 1200m when heavily backed at Murray Bridge last start and was entitled to tire. Back to 1000m is key here. Pushes forward and should give a great sight.
(5) Renege has had plenty of chances but will be in this a long way.
Suggested bet: Defy Gravity looks over the odds.
Race 4
(1) Grande Terre has a big weight to contend with but not overly concerned over the 1000m – he deserves it as the best horse in the race. He hasn’t had a jump-out but he’s trained locally and they don’t hold jump-outs up at Mildura, so not overly concerned – no doubt he’s been aimed at this. His four runs last campaign were all good enough to win this. He finished alongside Next Step Iowa at Geelong first-up, had no luck at Terang when fourth in December, had less luck at Burrumbeet when held up at a crucial stage and then closed out with a cracking on-speed effort at Geelong against much stronger opposition. If he’s anywhere near right and he gets a half-decent steer from the gate he will prove awfully hard to beat. $3.50 seems value.
Suggested bet: Like Grande Terre. Think $3.50 is overs.
Race 6
Think (10) Packers Journey can win this. She has had no luck his past two on the Ballarat Synthetic but has generally been racing well since joining Neil Dyer’s stable. He has been moderately away her past couple but Alana Kelly jumps back aboard and she was able to get her out of the gates very well three starts back, when racing on the speed before breaking her maiden at Donald. If she can jump cleanly off the inside she should get a lovely run here and take plenty of beating.
Like most of the Vella horses at the Carnival (1) Formidable Force resumes without a jump-out, but suspect he will be fit enough as they have clearly targeted this weekend with their horses. Had just the one run for the stable at Colac last start and was OK there. Dry track helps.
(2) Mr Markle and (5) Surfy Pete will both be thereabouts.
Suggested bet: Backing Packers Journey.
Race 7
Keen to back two horses in the last, (9) Pacific Jewel and (7) Phoebe Buffay. Pacific Jewel has her second start for Lucinda Boyd and I’d totally forgive Donald last time in when she was slow out and had plenty of excuses. She has trialled nicely this time in and the best of her is as good as anything in this race. If she can run up to her first-up run last campaign at Morphettville Parks I don’t think they can beat her. She has been bouncing out of the barriers nicely and the cherry on top is Meech riding – suspect she will put her into the race from a soft draw.
Phoebe Buffay gets into a weaker race than she has contested so far this campaign. Was in the inferior ground first-up at Swan Hill before racing in restricted room at Pakenham last start. Drawn well to get a nice trialling run just behind the speed. Ready to win third-up.
(2) Callistemon is an interesting runner having her first start for Cindy Brander. Drops way down in grade from what she’s been contesting in NSW. 1400m looks suitable for her.
Suggested bet: Keen to back Phoebe Buffay/Pacific Jewel.
