Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Group 1 & 2 races at Morphettville using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s big races.
Collum has had a freshen up after a huge autumn, highlighted by Light Infantry Man at $23 in the Australian Cup and American Wolf at $21 in the Adelaide Cup. He’s raring to attack what is a super Group 1 card in Adelaide.
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In The Lab | Queen Of The South Stakes | Group 2 F&M SW 1600m
Prepared to excuse the run of On Display at Caulfield on a wet track. She’s much better suited on top of the ground and is well in under set weight conditions. Ben Melham boasts a strong record aboard and the distance is ideal. Only two horses have run the required rating of 101.8 to win this race – Blindedbythelight and On Display. At the price, we think On Display represents good value.
Suggested Bet: On Display
In The Lab | Tobin Bronze Stakes | Group 2 3yo SW 1200m
This race appears more open then the market suggests and I think by this stage of the day they will get away from the fence. Over 1200m I’m looking for something that will take cover and reel off some strong sectionals late. Mathematician is an exciting 3yo Gelding for Clarken who has shown a big turn of foot in his first two starts. He didn’t handle the wet track in the Redleva Stakes after a 33 day break but was still heavily backed – $4 > $3.4. Agree that this race is harder but he’s progressive. Very happy to be with him at odds!
Suggested Bet: Mathematician
In The Lab | Australasian Oaks | Group 1 3yoF SW 2000m
Capacity field in the Oaks over 2000m. A few of these are question marks over the trip so I’m happy to be with a couple that appear suited. Mating Call did her best work late to win the Auraria so the step up in distance looks ideal. This is her grand final and Jamie Melham takes the reins again. Ben Melham has a nice chance her too in Savitri! She faced the breeze on a fast pace and had a bit left in hand at Caulfield when winning. I’m happy to be on at a price.
Suggested Bet: Mating Call & Savitri
In The Lab | Robert Sangster Stakes | Group 1 F&M WFA 1200m
Cracking race this one! Not a great deal of pace here either and a few of the fancies get back and will need some luck. Charm Stone was in the wrong part of the track at Caulfield but did finish within one length of the in-form Jigsaw. That seems to be the right formline for this and Mark Zahra has tasted sucess with her when winning the Sangster last year. From gate 12 Zahra should settle positive with her and get out to the best ground in the straight.
Suggested Bet: Charm Stone
