Whichever way you look at the Oaks, there looks to be plenty of speed in the race. The Wakeful on Saturday was run at a very strong tempo and they didn’t loaf along in the Spring Champion Stakes that De Armas won. Zac Lloyd is going to need to be decisive early from Proxima Dea’s wide draw, they have a very short run into the fist turn. Conversely, the fact they should roll along will help break up the field and see slots open up.
Given how fast-run the Wakeful was, it will be interesting to see how those coming through Saturday’s key lead-up handle the 5-day turnaround.
That said, the way (4) De Armas trucked up to them at the 300m mark was ultra-impressive. Had she not layed in as badly over the concluding stages I think she wins that race by a good deal further. She will have the rail to guide her from gate one and J-Mac will put her to sleep in the run. She has had a faultless preparation towards the Oaks and I can’t see her having any issue running out the 2500m.
(1) Proxima Dea comes through the right form races. Beat a subsequent Derby winner in Stormy Marco in the Spring Champion and did so comfortably. She rode a hot tempo there, so shouldn’t be fazed by rolling along on Thursday. She comes through clearly the highest-rating races: both last start, but even going back to her midway win three back over 1800m. The 12 day gap between runs (vs key rivals 5 days) could also be seen as a benefit coming out of hard-run races. The two niggles I have is just how hard she’s going to have to work here – she will be the hunted – and the fact she has been up and racing since July 11 this campaign. Class filly and will be no surprise if she wins, but think she’s short enough.
I think there’s a terrific roughie in the race. (16) Shameful Impulse was terrific through the line in Saturday’s Wakeful and she will not only get 2500m, but even further. Her last few runs have built beautifully towards and Oaks and her trainer, Rob Blacker, knows how to handle a stayer. Drawn ideally in eight, Willie Pike will; put her to sleep the first two-thirds of the race before letting her rip late.
Given just how hard they went in the Wakeful, (2) Icelady was good on speed. Still think she’s a query at the end of 2500m, but she will give a sight.
(3) Quick Finish was bold on speed in the Derby on Saturday. I do think the Oaks is stronger than the Derby this year, so temper the form a touch. She’s another who is going to put herself on speed and be in this a long way.
Selections:
(4) De Armas
(16) Shameful Impulse
(1) Proxima Dea
(2) Icelady
Suggested bet: Backing De Armas (WIN) and Shameful Impulse 1x3 EW
Other bets on the card:
Race 2:
- Backing both (2) Keitel and (9) Misty Whisper
- Quinella 2,9,14
Look, both are going to spot them a start, but they will be strong late. Loved Keitel’s pipe-opener at Doomben first up; he spotted them a huge start and was strong through the line. Step in trip looks ideal. Flies second up. Massive fan of Misty Whisper who can be his own worst enemy. He will absolutely relish the wide-open expanses of Flemington. You’re Not The King is the horse to bear in on the light weight and looks to get a soft run on speed.
Race 3
- Backing (1) Feroce, smaller (7) Enxuto
This loke won’t get a better chance to win another race. His run was much better than it looked in the Crystal Mile and his Sir Rupert Clarke effort three back was terrific. Like that Mark Zahra jumps on – he maps for a super run dropping in grace. Enxuto’s racing pattern holds him back in life but he’s airborne and ready to win.
