I like to keep my form simple and find a bit of value. I often punt with my heart rather than my head, but that’s what makes this game so great.
It’s all well and good punting on the prestigious grounds of Flemington and Rosehill, but we barely hit the scoreboard last week (soz), so maybe some more salt-of-the-earth action at places like Sandown and Dunkeld can work wonders for us.
SANDOWN
R6 – (3) Don’t Hope Do
OK, so full disclosure, I do work for the stable, so take that how you will, but I guess you could say I have the good mail.
He has had a great spring without winning, running second to Cavalry Girl two starts ago before finishing just 0.5L off Rey Magnerio last start.
He’s hard fit now and, as long as he handles the quickish backup, he should be running a bold race.
The favourite had every favour in the run last start and got beaten by Stokke… he’s beaten almost every other horse well.
EW all day!
R7 – (13) Aroused
She looks to have a bright future, this filly. Won jogging at Ballarat on debut and just did a lot wrong down the straight last start to cost herself the race.
Think she can bounce back here in a big way with a rail to follow. Her main danger, Natural Fling, in my opinion, may have had enough.
She will be up on the pace, which is key on the Lakeside track, and looks a very nice EW bet.
NEWCASTLE
R8 – (6) Sweynesday
Think a tear almost dropped from my eye on Derby Day at Flemington when he couldn’t get past Ndola.
He drops slightly in grade here and also in the weights. Barrier 6 around Newcastle is ideal.
He has a great third-up record (2: 1-0-1) and, like his first-up race, had good sectionals compared to the rest of the field.
As long as the track is playing fairly, he looks a great EW bet.
R10 – (5) Navy Pilot
He’s been hitting the line well of late over unsuitable distances. All his best form has been around 1300m, which he gets here.
Has form around She’s An Artist, who is fancied in The Hunter, and I do not see why he is such a big price.
Sure, the barrier is not ideal, but he gets a 3kg claim and is hard fit being fifth-up into this.
Let’s go 1×4 to be safe, but let’s be honest, we all like to go for glory.
ASCOT: R2 – (4) Have A Crack
We were with him last start and he certainly had a crack for us, helping us out late on Cox Plate Day.
He’s back in distance here, which is the only knock. Won his only other second-up start and stays at the same weight.
Not too sure what the difference between an RS1MW and a BM66+ is, to be frank, but I’m sure there cannot be much.
The favourite comes through some nice form lines, but I think a bit of Pike tax is being added.
Will have a crack.
DUNKELD
R7 – (2) Foujita San
We’re going out wide here, but ever since going to Shane Jackson, he’s had a real revival.
Was very good last start behind what looks to be a very nice horse in In’Kantosstar and gets weight relief here in what is a weaker race.
He’s drifting at the time of writing, which I am assuming is because of the soft track?
As long as the track is dry enough, I don’t see him missing a placing in the time-honoured Dunkeld Cup.
SANDOWN
R6 – (3) Don’t Hope Do: $20 EW
R7 – (13) Aroused: $20 EW
NEWCASTLE
R8 – (6) Sweynesday: $10 EW
R10 – (5) Navy Pilot: $20 1×4
ASCOT
R2 – (4) Have A Crack: $20 Win
DUNKELD
R7 – (2) Foujita San: $20 Win
Multi
$20 – Don’t Hope Do PLC – Aroused PLC – Sweynesday PLC – Navy Pilot TOP 5
Approx. odds: $30–$40
SIMON ZAHRA MULTI
$5 – Don’t Hope Do WIN into Have A Crack WIN
Approx. odds: $22–$26
$15 – Don’t Hope Do PLC into Have A Crack PLC
Approx. odds: $3–$4
