Turf talk:
- Hard to say much more about this Pakenham Synthetic track other than it’s racing perfectly.
- Horses can win from anywhere with the right run and requisite talent. Light winds today will give those on speed a chance.
- Momentum is key for the backmarkers, you don’t want to be held up and trying to sprint on a dime.
- Bet with confidence. And what a treat of a meeting for a Monday with ten quality races, including a host of very strong maidens.
Key stats:
- Greg Eurell has had 18 runners on the Pakenham Synthetic this season for seven winners. He has another huge hand today.
- Matt Laurie goes at 21.3% here at the Pakenham Synthetic across his career (25.3% PoT)
- Luke Nolen rides this track well going at 22.5% across his career (13.1% PoT).
- Lachlan Neindorf has had a great 12 months, but his form has been a little indifferent in recent times with nine winners from his last 100 rides (-42.2% PoT), well below his 14.1% strike rate the past 12 months.
Race 1
This is a spectacularly good 2yo race. Plenty have trialled up nicely. Some handy race form amongst them.
The market gravitated to (8) Pocketfullofcash the moment they went up, and with good reason. This bloke has an abundance of early speed and clearly a stack of talent based off his jump-outs. He ran slick time in winning his most recent 1000m heat here on the synthetic and he should be able to clear them from the wide draw and lead. Looks the horse to beat, but the $2.25 on offer now is rock bottom, as it is a race of depth.
(7) Phillip Island may want a little further in time, but he has trialled up nicely and he had excuses on debut in the VOBIS Showdown last campaign. Willo on from a good gate – he will get a gun run in the race.
Think (9) Sodapop is worth including in exotics and I will have something the place on him. There will be good speed in this and he should let it all unfold and look to close late. Has shown a strong turn of foot in jump-outs.
Grahame Begg unearthed a super 2yo at Flemington on Saturday and Artison looks another likely juvenile from the camp. Was terrific late in her recent piece of work.
Suggested bet: Hopefully get a drift on Pocketfullofcash and can get close to $3. Looks super talented, but $2.25 is rock bottom. Include Sodapop in exotics.
Race 2
Reckon there’s two key winning hopes.
(7) Praise Her has jumped-out very well. She has left the gates fast in her last two jump-outs; one she settled on speed before cruising to the line to win under a big hold, the other she was allowed to balance up before being asked to finish off her work late. She moves like a very nice horse and from gate six she can bounce, settle on speed, and take a stack of catching.
(4) Miss Pantera has a great chance on debut. She has gone far better in synthetic and firm track jump-outs so no surprise to see them avoid a wet track. Drawn out, but has the speed to overcome the wide draw, especially with a good rider like Will Gordon up. Think she runs well.
(2) Alphabet has had his chances in weaker races than this.
Suggested bet: Keen to back both Praise Her and Miss Pantera. Spending $50 on the race I’m having $40 on Praise Her/$10 on Miss Pantera.
Race 3
(6) Cosmic Shower was good first up, setting a cracking tempo over 1200m in a race that had depth. She was pretty fresh rolling forward at the 1200m first up off 51 weeks, so did a good job to hang on as long as she did. Suspect they have to roll forward again from the gate and looking at the map she’s actually not drawn to badly as there’s speed outside.
Terrific roughie for mine in (1) Hot Defense, who is 60/1. He was given a very quiet hit-out when last at Traralgon, but went to the line with plenty in hand and he took a long time to pull up past the post. His jump-out here at the Pak Sytnh was good: he was allowed to balance up at the tail but showed a very nice turn of foot when given a squeeze. Is a neutral beginner, so might need luck off gate one, and I do think he will be a horse better suited with galloping room, but at such a big price you aren’t going to have everything in your favour. No moral by any stretch, but worth a few bucks E/W at 60/1.
(9) Jundah had no luck on debut here at Pakenham and probably should’ve gone close to winning. Draws ideally for Nolen – she will be in the finish.
Suggested bet: Backing Hot Defense E/W, Cosmic Shower WIN. Like the race.
Race 4
Limited chances here. (3) Oshima rises quickly from 1200m to a mile. He was strong through the line here at 1200m on debut having wanted to over-race a touch when restrained early. He begins only neutrally but looks a horse that can muster speed quickly and banking on a positive ride from Luke Nolen here in a race lacking tempo. If they send him forward, he can control the race and give a really good site. Has upside in a race that many of his rivals have had several chances.
(10) Soul Mistress is the clear danger. She was good this track and trip first up, just outgunned late by a fit horse with a big gap back to third. Jye McNeil has hit some form in recent weeks and with a decent steer she will be in the finish.
(8) Jenni Bassett is the map horse. She will get a lovely run on speed and should be in it a long way.
Suggested bet: Backing Oshima 1×3 E/W. Hopefully the employ positive tactics and he can run a big race.
Race 5
Another deep maiden.
(10) Queens Of Vino has had non luck in either run this campaign and she comes through a strong race behind First Regent. They ran slick time in that race and she was held up at a crucial stage in the straight. Totally forgive the last-placed effort at Sale fresh, too, she was chopped out when making a run in the straight. Drawn out, but they have a lovely, long run down the back before they start turning from the 1400m start, so plenty of time to find a position.
(11) Thommo looked legless in a heavy track jump-out at Cranbourne on June 29 but quickened down nicely when Willo asked for an effort here on the synthetic in his most recent work. The way he took some riding to get going at the 1000m suggests 1400m on debut is ideal. Willo heads home after this ride and only has three on the day, which is also a positive lead.
Like Thommo, (3) Ominous hasn’t looked flash in heavy track jump-outs at Cranbourne leading in, but have to be a bit forgiving given they come to the synthetic. Debut in a strong race was good at Seymour and 1400m looks ideal first up.
Suggested bet: Backing Queens Of Vino/Thommo.
Race 6
(10) King Maywin should be able to cross and either lead, or sit outside (4) Blondeau should that horse want to kick up again (although intention was to ride with cover last start). King Maywin was arguably a good thing beaten first up at Geelong when sitting deep throughout in a handy maiden. He belted his rivals this track and trip last start, albeit a little flattered as he did have a soft lead. He’s a horse I have always had plenty of time for and this isn’t an overly strong BM62 – think he can make the step. The little concern is 35 days between runs, but suspect Eurell wanted to keep him to this track and there wasn’t a meeting here last week.
(3) Claymore Mine looks over the odds. Two from two on synthetic tracks (Ballarat) and will appreciate getting off wet decks.
(1) Banknote Hustler got lost going the Sydney was last start, laying out badly in the straight, which was detrimental to his chances. Back in grade and gets a handy claim for Olivia East, who rides quite well.
Suggested bet: Backing King Maywin, something on Claymore Mine for a winning result, too.
Race 8
(3) Easy Dun is ready to win. Was beaten by (4) Hulkster this track last start but had excuses on that occasion and now gets a weight swing/map advantage. Didn’t have a lot of luck at Swan Hill over the Carnival, either. Good jockey up, maps perfectly. Think he’s one of two key winning hopes.
Suggested bet: Backing Easy Dun 1×3 EW
