Turf talk:
- Pakenham is one of the best laid out tracks in the country with lovely runs from most starts before they start turning and a long, wide 480m home straight.
- The 1000, 1100 and 1200m races start from a chute off the top of the home straight, so a northerly wind really assists leaders in these races. Barriers are of little consequence as they only have a slight bend to navigate.
- Rail is out 3m. In recent meetings they’ve been wanting to avoid the inside – keep an eye on whether that is again the case early in the meeting.
Key stats:
- Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr go at 21.3% here at Pakenham from a decent sample size. Bang on with market expectation.
Race 1
This looks an ideal race for (5) Chowdown who resumes here. Was home the best last 600/400m splits of the meeting in a hot race at Sale when last at the races. Two jump-outs this time in have been solid and 1200m on his home track is ideal fresh. Should camp right on speed from a soft draw and prove awfully hard to hold out.
(10) Privateer went way too hard over 1400m last time out so was entitled to fall in a hole. Worry off that tough run, now fourth-up, dropping back to 1200m, if she might struggle to bounce back. Has tactical speed and she was good two back at Seymour, but there’s enough against her to think $3.20 is well under the odds.
Suggested bet: Like Chowdown.
Race 2
This again looks a race for those resuming.
Always had an opinion of (5) Bel Lupa and thought her recent Caulfield jump-out was outstanding. Caveat is she jumped-out very well last campaign before failing to break her maiden, but she did run well by the same token.
(6) Cabaret Queen looks talent and she comes through a strong Maiden on debut last campaign (first and third won their next starts). She still does a lot wrong; she wanted to throw her head in the air in a recent Cranbourne jump-out and hung out quite badly in the straight, but she may be able to get away with that over 1000m. Tongue tie going on suggests they are on top of an issue there and her talent is clear.
Suggested bet: Bel Lupa
Race 6
Like (4) Baywatch. She had the pattern in her favour but won well at Sale in one run last campaign. She has been ridden quietly in jump-outs this time in so expect that to be the case tonight. Loved how she worked through the line in both jump-outs and there looks good speed here that should see her flow into the race late. Handy 3kg claim for Bailey Kinninmont who I think rides well.
Not giving up on (9) Ocean Bay who missed the kick and was always amongst horses first-up here over 1200m. 1400m suits better and don’t mind the wide draw with a long run into the first bend.
(3) Stung is a horse with promise. Think Pakenham will suit, jump-outs have been strong and 1400m a nice kick of point. (6) Simply Outrageous was dominant first-up, posting good time there at Ballarat, but this is tougher.
Suggested bet; Backing Baywatch 1×3 E/W, small coin or two on Ocean Bay, too.
