Turf Talk:
- Pakenham is one of the best laid out tracks in the country with lovely runs from most starts before they start turning and a long, wide 480m home straight.
- The 1000, 1100 and 1200m races start from a chute off the top of the home straight, so a northerly wind really assists leaders in these races. Barriers are of little consequence as they only have a slight bend to navigate.
Race 1
Excellent race.
Loved the trials of (4) Forbidden Desire. She won her latest at Caulfield under very light riding and her Cranbourne jump-out prior was excellent. Went out hard in the Merson Cooper at her only run last campaign so was entitled to tire. Can see her being ridden a bit quieter here and think Pakenham suits her style.
(5) Heat Map seems a big price at $14. Recent jump-out on the Caulfield Heath track was terrific, posting good time for the morning.
The Begg stable have hit form and they have a super hope here with (3) Charleston Lane. Trials have been excellent, the latest behind Luna Vega who has been competitive in Stakes company. Will run well on debut.
(7) Shamelle is another who has shown good ability in her jump-outs.
Not convinced (12) Wonderful Sky comes through the strongest race and she looks short enough at $2.90. Drawn to get buried away close to the fence, alebit she has a super jockey up in Ethan Brown. Race experience will count vs a few rivals, but have to take her on at the price.
Suggested bet: Backing Forbidden Desire/Heat Map. Quinella 3,4,5. Trifecta: 3,4,5 // 3,4,5,7 // 2,3,4,5,7,12
Never miss a winner by visiting the Betsy Tipping Hub – Click here
Race 2
Two winning chances for mine: (1) Brass In Pocket and (3) Concord Connie.
Have been taken with the jump-out work of (1) Brass In Pocket who has got back in each jump-out but been incredibly strong through the line, without being asked for much effort. 1200m on a big track from a wide draw looks ideal for her – she strikes me as a filly that needs galloping room. Think she will make her presence felt on debut.
(3) Concord Connie was heavily backed on debut last campaign before spotting them too big a start and charging home. The third horse out of that race went on to win its next two starts. Jump-outs have been good. Just needs even luck off gate three.
Suggested bet: Backing Brass In Pocket/Concord Connie
Race 3
Market has three horses under $3 and everything else given no hope – probably rightly so.
Think (10) There Were Roses is a real soft spot in the market. Got out to 2000m last time in and trials have suggested that’s again where we will see her head.
(8) Brightly Dance was sent forward last start and she ran second to Carriedo (who won again at Sandown on Monday). Fourth and sixth out of that race have also since won. This filly showed ability in trials prior to her debut where she didn’t have the best of luck. Rolls forward and looks to control this race – the horse they have to beat.
Suspect (7) Avenue Montaigne also pushes forward stepping to 1400m and she will be better for her first outing for the Begg stable.
Suggested bet: Backing Brightly Dance
