Punting Form Data Drop: Insight and best bets for a big weekend

Robert Sangster and Australasian Oaks tomorrow and the Punting Form Data Drop is back after a big weekend last week. James from Punting Form provides key insights and tips ahead of a big weekend, headlined by Group 1 racing in South Australia. 

JMac has flown to Adelaide, so that tells you the prestige (and cash) on offer at Morphettville. He’s then riding Group 1s in Hong Kong (Champions Day) the next day. If there’s a better job than his jockey manager, I’m not aware of it.

According to the Punting Form database, JMac has only ridden three times in the City of Churches. Same amount fo rides as he has tomorrow.

Naturally, he’s in the market on all three, but punters would be wise to consider Mark Zahra and Ben Melham (A2E 1.33-1.37). As well as the limited rides from apprentices Alysha Warren and Brooke King.

Leading jockeys at the meeting:

Key track intel

Analysis of key barriers and field position stats for Morphettville with the rail true shows that back of midfield can actually prove advantageous; certainly over-indexing vs the norm. Keep an eye on how the track plays as coming down the middle hasn’t been a negative in recent meetings.

Meanwhile at Flemington the data suggests the those settling off speed and potentially away from the inside rail might have an edge. The tale below shows that backing horses settling on speed with the rail true is most unprofitable.

The all-important bets for the weekend:

Morphettville Race 3 – 2000m

I’m opening the account softly here.

The market loves Port Adelaide Guineas winner Mcwoody ($2.30), but the Punting Form database says Autumn Mystery ($5.50) is just as quick. In fact, the 3YO gelding went three lengths faster over the last 600m last start.

There’s been support from $6 as well. Respect Mcwoody, but I want a ticket on the upset. Quinella might be the safe play if you’re looking to survive the first.

Morphettville Race 6 – 1200m

Mark Zahra in Adelaide is always worth noting.

Legacy Bound maps to settle just off the speed and should get a clean crack at them late. Strong ratings profile and has produced the fastest performance in the field.

$5 looks a fair price to get involved.

Morphettville Race 7 – 2000m

One of the races of the weekend and not one you’d usually dive into.

The favourite deserves to be there, and there’s a stack of chances in the database. But if I’m having a Group 1 swing, it’s Savitri.

$21 into $14, with PF AI pricing her closer to $10. Ben Melham on board and a map that works despite the wide draw.

Morphettville Race 8 – 1200m

Back-to-back Ben, but this time we’re betting harder.

Bridal Waltz should land in the perfect stalking position and has every chance. Ran well third up last prep and has been backed $11 into $7. Still looks overs.

Morphettville Race 9 – 1600m

Bamyan Buddha hasn’t attracted early money, which dents confidence slightly, but $8 still looks big.

Brooke King rides better than the apprentice claim suggests, and the 7YO gets in with just 53.5kg. Ticks Late Speed, Early Speed and benchmark boxes.

Flemington Race 1 – 2500m

Backing The Western Front to roll Bluestone and the rest.

$5 into $4.90. Strong late sectionals last start and has the turn of foot to be effective at the trip. Luke Currie a positive.

Flemington Race 3 – 1400m

Drumfire for Waterhouse and Bott looks a bet at $4.60.

Top rated by PF AI, ranks No. 1 for Early Speed and Race Time Price, and comes off the fastest last start rating. Will get every chance on speed.

Flemington Race 5 – 1400m

Sixteen compelling reasons on the Top 4 Performers table to back Big Swinger. Plus, the name.

Perfect PF AI Score (100) and has recorded the fastest last 600m at this distance range.

$6.50 looks a worthwhile play.

Flemington Race 6 – 2800m

Trying not to overplay the hand, but keen on the Cumani topweight in the St Leger.

Deal Done Fast has a perfect PF Score and ranks No. 1 for Late Speed, Race Time Price and Weight Class Price. Also owns the two fastest benchmarks at the trip.

$4.50 into $3.60 and looks the one to beat.

Randwick Race 6 – 1800m

Thrice has been smashed in betting, $6.50 into $3.50.

The word is out on the import. Hard to take the current price, but I’ll be finding a way to be with the Waterhouse and Bott runner.

Randwick Race 7 – 1500m

Backing Encap for Portelli and King.

The last 600m profile at the distance is outstanding. Competitive race but happy to be with it at $5.50.

Eagle Farm Race 1 – 1200m

Hard to knock the Gollan and Harley combination.

$3 looks fair for Savagery Vibe. Perfect PF AI score and ranks No. 1 for Race Time Price, Late Speed and Weight Class Price.

Summary of best bets: