I’m underwater at the moment. The betting accounts, and my house on the Sunshine Coast. If they manage to race at Eagle Farm tomorrow, find the heaviest of heavy trackers.
Thankfully, the rest of the country is in better order. Good (4) tracks with probable rain on the way at Flemington, Randwick, Ascot and Morphettville, although rain is expected at most venues.
The Flemington Cox Plate will probably be run on a soft track, with up to 20mm of rain forecast for Melbourne in the afternoon.
Barrier vs run style: Horses facing a negative
The Barrier vs Run Style data suggests taking caution with horses settling forward from inside and wide barriers.
It’s not a death sentence, but it’s a negative for:
- Race 1: Ice Kool and Spywire
- Race 4: Angels Fury and Aroused
- Race 5: Mazu
- Cox Plate: Light Infantry Man
- Race 9: Sunset Park
We have the rail data at Adelaide, but you’ll need a Punting Form subscription to see Randwick and Ascot with the rail out.
Jockey data: The riders beating the market
I haven’t shared venue-specific jockey data in a while, but there are some absolute standouts to consider.
| Venue | Jockey | A2E edge |
|---|---|---|
| Morphettville | Caitlin Jones | +37% (470 rides) |
| Flemington | Mick Dee | +25% |
| Flemington | Ben Melham | +16% |
| Randwick | Nash Rawiller | +22% (752 rides) |
| Ascot | Natasha Faithfull | +19% (345 rides) |
| Ascot | Shaun O’Donnell | +21% (1600 rides!) |
| Eagle Farm | Angela Jones | +19% |
| Eagle Farm | Tahlia Fenlon | +15% |
Flemington trainer and jockey data
I’m about to get into the race predictions, but here are a couple of other data snacks to consider at Flemington.
JMac is a perfect chop-out with an A2E of 1.00, despite winning four Cox Plates in a row on three horses. WTF, seriously!
The training data at the home of racing is interesting too. Consistent with JMac, Chris Waller just beats market expectations with an A2E of 1.02.
The Maher stable consistently outperforms the market and is flying with its last 100 runners. Similarly, the iconic Hayes and Freedman names are also enjoying a rich vein of form.
And the Flemington lane data…
Flemington Tips
Race 1 – 1000m
Limping in here, but using that Barrier vs Run Style data to oppose the two favourites, along with the first-up record of Point And Shoot, to back a Bjorn Baker runner at $7.
Ice Kool looks short, but I love the closing 600m sectionals, particularly when fresh.
Selection: Point And Shoot ($7)
Race 4 – 1200m
Caddington is from an unfashionable stable for the spring, but his Kyneton maiden win was a huge run fresh.
The map looks ideal (13% edge), and he leads the Early Speed and Race Time Price ratings. The move from $7.50 into $6.50 is confidence-building too.
Selection: Caddington ($6.50)
Race 5 – 1200m
Jigsaw has been good to me, but his straight-track record is deterring my faith.
Rey Magnerio, on the other hand, loves the straight, had no luck last start and gets the winkers on. When he’s on, he’s really on, as the benchmark data shows.
Selection: Rey Magnerio ($9.50)
Race 6 – 1600m
I’m with Gai, Adrian and Surfin’ Bird ($2.60) in the Group 2 mile.
It’s a serious field, but none of these big names ran a place last start, while Surfin’ Bird was two lengths too good last run. The market is absolutely one-way, so we’re not getting value, but she looks the most likely favourite of the big races this weekend.
Selection: Surfin’ Bird ($2.60)
Race 7 – 2500m
Plenty of mail for Craig Williams’ ride, Aethelwulf. The form is unreal too.
But I think Juja Kibo looks better value. He’s been backed from $7 into $6.50 and is shorter on PF AI. Trust in Ciaron. He maps perfectly behind Future History and was blistering over the last 600m two weeks ago.
Selection: Juja Kibo ($6.50)
Race 8 – 2040m – Cox Plate
What a Cox Plate. Every 2000m Group 1 winner from the last year is in it.
The PF database says Sir Delius, Warwoven or Ceolwulf, followed by Cosmic Crusader.
And I’m nervously jumping off Sir Delius after being let down by my favourite stable so far. His map looks excellent tomorrow, too.
The safe bet, where money will flow, is the JMac/Waller/Aeliana combination. I’m taking the $5. She’s fourth-up, with four wins from six attempts at that stage of a preparation! That’s when she won the Tancred and Oaks.
JMac has ridden her five times for four wins and a second, too. She’s got the closing speed and is set for the 2040m.
Not going crazy here, but I’m on the JMac fairytale. Will consider backing Ceolwulf on the seven-day backup too ($7).
Selection: Aeliana ($5)
Also consider: Ceolwulf ($7)
Randwick tips
Race 4 – 1200m
The stable looks set for a big day, and so does the namesake horse.
Ciaron’s Star dominates the Top 4 Performers Tally, including recording -10.4 and -9.8 over the last 600m in two races this year. Taking $2.60.
Selection: Ciaron’s Star ($2.60)
Race 5 – 1600m
I backed Central Europe ($4.40) in the Caulfield Guineas and I’m sticking with the Waller colt.
He’s fully fit and this race should suit him. He’s also recorded the two fastest last 600m benchmarks.
Selection: Central Europe ($4.40)
Race 10 – 1600m
Joe’s Anthracite drops from 2000m back to 1600m and puts himself on speed.
He should be very strong late after recording -11.0 last start!
PF AI is shorter than the $5 market quote, and he should settle in the one-one with every chance.
Selection: Joe’s Anthracite ($5)
Morphettville tips
Race 2 – 1200m
This looks easier. Famous last words. Genuine odds-on favourite Virtual Illusion ($1.90) has a perfect PF Score of 100 for the Jolly stable, completely dominating the PF ratings and benchmarks.
Selection: Virtual Illusion ($1.90)
Race 6 – 1800m
Feeling dangerously confident about Somewhere Soon at $7.50 too.
On the seven-day backup, he leads the Top 4 Performers and was the fastest in the field last start.
Selection: Somewhere Soon ($7.50)
Race 8 – 1200m
Like A Drifter has been smashed in early betting.
The market saw the barrier trial and didn’t forget last preparation’s record.
He recorded -7.5 last start and Tala Hutchinson claims 3kg.
Selection: Like A Drifter
A few roughies to finish
- Randwick Race 8: Arabian Rose ($19)
- Ascot Race 4: Summer’s Legacy ($26)
- Ascot Race 6: Starwalker ($16)
