Flemington pattern warning
It’s set to be a gorgeous day in Melbourne, with a Good 4 expected and temperatures around 22 degrees.
The Punting Form data has thrown up one combination to be wary of at Flemington: horses settling forward from an inside barrier have produced a -21% A2E.
It’s a significant enough negative to keep in mind when assessing the card, particularly when the market has already found a runner fitting that profile.
At Rosehill, the data favours horses settling forward from wide barriers, while at Belmont Park, the sweet spot has been horses settling midfield from inside draws.
The Rosehill runners fitting the profile are Xtreme and I Am Steffi in Race 1, Mukhtalif in Race 4, Puntin in Race 5 and Grand Impact in Race 10.
At Belmont, keep an eye on Yamanex in Race 1, Sunny Honey in Race 3, Phat Chaps in Race 6 and Diamond Dancer in Race 8.
Flemington Race 3 – Barbara $5.50
Happy to back Barbara with confidence at $5.50. Streisand is very short in the market despite PF AI pricing her at $3.28, although she has attracted early support and leads the Top 4 Performers Tally.
Barbara has some strong positives of her own. Ben Melham has an excellent Flemington record, the map looks favourable and the Clint McDonald stable has a strong history of beating the market.
Flemington Race 4 – Paradoxium $3.40
A smaller bet on Paradoxium at $3.40. The price has already been crunched, which makes it difficult to bet with too much confidence, while the barrier and expected settling position also produces the negative combination highlighted in the Flemington data.
Still, the Rosehill barrier trial was impressive and the Bjorn Baker-Jason Collett combination adds confidence. Want a ticket, but keeping the stake under control.
Flemington Race 5 – Shockletz $4.90
Backing Shockletz at $4.90. The blinkers go on and there are some strong jockey-trainer and benchmark indicators supporting her chances. She also produced an excellent -8.4 last 600m at Flemington two starts ago.
There looks enough in the data to suggest she can take another step over 2500m.
Flemington Race 7 – Oliveanotherday $1.70
CHIPS IN.
Oliveanotherday produced a huge -14.9 in an eye-catching performance last start and looks the horse to beat again.
Straight racing at Flemington always brings an element of risk, particularly at a short price, but the map looks favourable and the underlying performance data is difficult to ignore.
Sometimes you simply have to be prepared to back the best horse in a big race. At $1.70, Oliveanotherday is one of the strongest plays of the day.
Flemington Race 8 – Sir Delius
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Plenty of confidence around Sir Delius in Race 8. The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stable consistently performs strongly against the market, while Craig Williams has more Flemington wins than any jockey riding at the meeting.
Most importantly, Sir Delius is a top-class horse and the map looks ideal. Everything points towards him getting his chance and he rates as another major play.
Rosehill Race 1 – Wayburn $3.70
Getting started in Sydney with Wayburn at $3.70. He owns a PF Score of 98 and appears 19 times on the Top 4 Performers Tally, which gives him an excellent data profile.
It’s a massive field, but Mollie Fitzgerald’s 3kg claim helps and the map suggests horses settling on pace or around midfield should have an advantage.
Rosehill Race 8 – Central Europe $6.50
There are several strong form horses towards the top of the market, but Central Europe is the bet. The Waller-Zac Lloyd combination is a positive and there are a number of relevant benchmarks and ratings supporting his chances.
The market agrees, with $7.50 into $6.50 suggesting there has already been some sharp support.
Rosehill Race 9 – Skyhook
The market is with Skyhook, and so are we. The 1300m looks ideal and he ranks on top for both Race Time Price and PF AI.
The map should also allow him to settle ahead of much of the traffic before getting a clean opportunity to build momentum around the turn.
Doomben Race 2 – Livalittle $2.50
Livalittle has already won twice this preparation, which explains the relatively short $2.50 quote, but the data suggests there could be another win coming.
He was the fastest runner last start, ranks No.1 for PF AI and gets 3kg off with Bella Youngberry, who herself has an excellent record of beating the market.
Doomben Race 9 – Unloading $6
The early value has disappeared with Unloading firming from $9 into $6, but there still looks to be enough meat on the bone.
He ran very well first-up last preparation and ranks No.1 for PF AI, while the Jones-Dodson combination is another positive. The market has found him, but he still looks over the odds.
Morphettville Race 2 – Money Honey $2.50
Money Honey has been heavily supported from $3.10 into $2.50 and the data is happy to follow the move.
She drops into a kinder grade after racing in Victoria and should be able to settle right on speed.
One of the more confident bets of the day and she should take plenty of catching.
Belmont Park Race 1 – Boy Crush $1.85
The price isn’t flash, but Boy Crush looks the best horse in the race.
He won nicely last start and should settle ahead of his main danger, while Holly Nottle has an excellent record at Belmont Park.
At $1.85, it’s about whether you’re prepared to take the short odds rather than any concern with his winning chance.
And the best of the roughies:
- Flemington Race 3 – Land Legend $10
- Rosehill Race 6 – Hidrix $12
- Rosehill Race 10 – Grand Impact $9
- Morphettville Race 8 – Mr Trafficanti $8.50
