Group 1 racing continues with the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield, alongside some solid racing around the country.
The weather and track look good at Caulfield. Clear conditions, a Soft 7 and no standout barrier edges. She should play true.
Jockey-wise, Ethan Brown screams out with an A2E of 1.31. While the market circles JMac, I’d be surprised if Brown and Maher don’t win a few races.
Rosehill map edges
Up to Sydney, where Rosehill has a real split happening with the wide gates this week.
The 18% map edge will help:
Doradus and Proxima Dea – Race 1
Appeared – Race 3
Oh Arthur – Race 6
Rolling Magic – Race 9
Meanwhile, the -25% challenge faces favourite Althoff in Race 9 who could be back and wide from a wide draw.
Zac Lloyd’s Rosehill numbers are excellent on their own. Even better this week with JMac down in Melbourne.
Around the grounds
Eagle Farm: Backmarkers from the inside gates are the value spot, while forward types drawn wide are the ones the market gets wrong.
Morphettville: Similar to Caulfield, nothing is jumping out barrier-wise.
Now let’s bet.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1800m
Lots of green lights here for Makdane. Seven-day backup, super-short PF AI price and quick home last start. Maps behind the leader and Damian Lane is flying at the moment. $7.50 looks huge.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1100m
I’m actually more scared of War Machine ($6) than the $2.50 favourite, Oliveanotherday.
Bridal Waltz ($4.40) is the bet. Moody + Melham. Goes well first-up, has class and ranks on top for PF AI and the Top 4 Performers Tally.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m
American Eagle has been $4.90 into $4.40 and should start shorter. Also love the name: American Eagle.
Perfect PF Score and electric benchmarks. The debut win on a heavy track was eye-catching, producing one of the best closing sections of the entire day. And maps well this time.
Blackbook for Spring.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1400m
What an outrageous Memsie Stakes. You could back almost every runner.
With that level of competition, I’m not going crazy. But I’m backing Cosmic Crusader ($5) again. Love the map, love the closing speed. Fit, 2/2 in Melbourne and the stable is flying.
Cheeky bet on Birdman too; $41 into $31.
Rosehill Race 4 – 1500m
I mentioned Zac Lloyd at the top of the email and Beside The Ocean looks big ($5.50 into $4.80).
Ranks No.1 for PF AI and stormed home last start.
Rosehill Race 8 – 1100m
I backed Chilly Girl to beat her last time out, but I still love Blue Door. Perfect PF Score, super fit and a good gate. Should control the race and blitz them, like they’re supposed to at this price ($2.20).
Rosehill Race 10 – 1200m
Amazing Eagle will be a nasty result for bookies. Hopefully. $2.50 into $1.90 already.
Bjorn Baker’s 5YO has early speed, is down in the weights and looks to have too much class for this field.
Eagle Farm Race 1 – 1000m
The early smart money has come hard here. Takes a bit of the fun out at $3.30.
But Howdoyouzou looks the winner after an impressive trial a few weeks ago. And loves 1000m.
[IMAGE]
Eagle Farm Race 4 – 1400m
Schweida and Williams are a lethal combination and High Authority dominates the data. Should start shorter than $4.20. There’s a 15% map edge too.
Eagle Farm Race 8 – 1000m
Backing Polyglot again. Not with the same enthusiasm as last start based on the price, but love Michael Freedman’s stable.
Distance is perfect, maps well and should be hard to beat at $3.
Morphettville Race 1 – 1100m
I’m happy to back Bilk at $3.60. Ranks No.1 for both the Top 4 Performers and PF AI, and was 3+ lengths faster last start than the field.
Belmont Park Race 5 – 1300m
God’s Gate was 3.5 lengths faster than the field last start and should deliver at $2.50 for the experienced Parnhams.
Recorded three of the four fastest benchmarks over the past two years.
