Punting Form Data Drop: Saturday’s track analysis and best bets for a big weekend

Track Patterns

Punting Form’s historical track data can be used to help predict likely track patterns across different rail positions. Below is a summary of this week’s data.

Honing in on feature racing at Ascot, headlined by the Quokka, here is the detailed breakdown.

That 19% map edge for runners settling forward from wide barriers in Perth should suit:

• Bartime (R1)
• Mistress Of War (R4)
• Niccimota and Military Power (R6)
• Aurum Belle and Striking Alibi (R7)
• Jigsaw and Oscar’s Fortune (R8)
• Cessation and Thermosphere Lad (R9)

Morphettville is the other track with a clearly predictable pattern. Horses have been advantaged by getting away from the fence in recent meetings, and we’d expect that to continue on Saturday.

Puntingform Best Bets for the weekend

Randwick Race 5 – 2000m

Matias was found quickly by bookies and punters, opening short at $3.50 and now crunched into $3.

The Ryan and Alexiou top-weight has recorded two of the fastest last 600m benchmarks in the past five weeks. PF AI supports him, the map looks positive and there is plenty of trust in Nash.

Randwick Race 7 – 1600m

The PF database validates Campione D’Italia at $2.50. Waller, JMac and PF AI all have him on top.

Punting Form is also aligned on Fireball at $6.

But I love finding value in 2YO races, and there are a few to choose from. Zambales at $14 and Sumac at $31 both look likely to start shorter.

My main bet, though, will be Grinzinger Heart at $21.

Randwick Race 8 – 1200m

Small bet on Kerguelen at $9 in this Group 3.

Pride Of Jenni and Hyeronimus win well, and Kerguelen flew home last start, recording the fastest last 600m and last 200m. He maps out of trouble and should be hammering home.

Fastest last start, Craig Williams is in form and he rates well for Weight Class Price and PF AI. He maps to lead too, so you should get your money’s worth at $21.

Ticket on Sumac as well.

Randwick Race 10 – 1400m

I’m betting with irrational confidence on God’s Window at $23.

There has been early market support, he maps well and rates in the top two for Race Time Price, Late Speed, PF Score and Weight Class Price. He ran well fresh last start too.

Mornington Race 4 – 1200m

Milos Filos is a big price at $12.

He was the second quickest last start, the jockey and trainer are flying, soft tracks suit, he maps positively and he has recorded the fastest last 200m in the field.

Mornington Race 9 – 1200m

Recon is an emergency here, but should get a start.

The Pat Carey and Harris Walker stable is beating the market well across its past 100 runners, and Recon has the second strongest closing speed in the field behind the $3.80 favourite.

$9.50 into $9 and worth backing.

Eagle Farm Race 4 – 2406m

Akkadian Emperor at $4.50 should be shorter according to the database.

The Annabel and Rob runner leads the Top 4 Performers Tally and Late Speed Ranking. The five-year-old has also produced two of the three fastest benchmarks at this distance range.

Eagle Farm Race 9 – 1000m

Abounding at $9 looks a brilliant bet at the price. She has the 27% map edge and ran -13.6 over the last 600m last start. She also recorded the fastest last 200m of the race.

And yet again, it is a trainer and jockey combination that crushes the market.

Morphettville Parks Race 3 – 1550m

Mystic Wonder has a PF Score of 98 and ran -6.6 over the last 600m last start, nearly five lengths better than the rest of the field.

She ranks No. 1 across most PF ratings too. The move from $4.20 into $3.60 says some sharp judges are supporting her as well.

Morphettville Parks Race 9 – 1250m

Clarence, with Kayla aboard, is well over the odds at $7.50.

He has recorded three of the four fastest last 600m benchmarks and has a PF Score of 99. He maps positively too and should settle on the fence before getting a run at them through traffic.

Ascot Race 2 – 1000m

Looks a two-horse race, and I’m with Swingman, who has firmed from $3.80 into $3.

CJP’s little brother claims 3kg against the favourite and should not have any trouble navigating a field this size.

Swingman ranks No. 1 for PF AI, Weight Class Price and Race Time Price.

Ascot Race 8 – 1200m

Two bets in the $5 million Quokka.

The main bet is the 1200m specialist Jigsaw. The top-weight has won his past six at this distance.

From barrier 13, and ranking No. 1 for Early Speed, he gets that 19% map edge. He has firmed from $5.50 into $4.60 and will be in the finish.

And a local knockout that should be on the speed with him is Oscar’s Fortune at $26.

Punting Form Best Bets – Summary