The Punting Form data has thrown up some fascinating track trends ahead of Saturday, with a strong historical edge for wide backmarkers at Sandown and an even bigger advantage for wide, on-speed runners at Morphettville Parks.
There’s also plenty of value on the betting front, including a double-figure play in the Group 1 Moir Stakes.
The tracks
Sandown-Hillside
It’s a Good 4 for Moir Stakes Day at Sandown but there is rain forecast on raceday, which needs to be monitored.
There’s some wild backmarker data to consider, too. The inside is off badly at -26%, the middle is also a negative, while Wide + Settle Back has a 16% edge. It’s a decent sample size as well.
Again, Ethan Brown knows the business. It feels like I type his name every week at the moment, while Jordan Childs is even sharper and has had a dozen more winners at Sandown.
Randwick
The rail is out 3m at Randwick and that will have an influence. The relevant data won’t populate until early afternoon today, but it will be worth keeping a close eye on once it does.
Eagle Farm
Eagle Farm suits horses settling forward.
The rail is out 0.5m, so I’m taking some liberties using the true-track data, but the historical numbers point towards an advantage for those racing prominently.
Morphettville Parks
Absolutely love the edge at Morphettville Parks. Wide + Forward beats the market by 22%.
That is a significant historical advantage and something worth keeping firmly in mind throughout Saturday’s meeting.
The bets
Sandown-Hillside Race 1 – 1500m
Small investment to warm up in a lightly raced field.
I’m backing Ko Phangan ($6.50). I have a soft spot for the Busuttin and Young stable and the horse’s benchmarks last start were quick, running -7.0 over the final 600m. Plus, Craig Williams has ridden the most winners at Sandown of all the jockeys engaged there on Saturday.
Sandown-Hillside Race 8 – 1000m
We’ve found Natural Fling ($3.10) and Cavalry Girl ($10) this preparation, so I’m looking to stay on.
There are plenty of capable knockout horses in the Group 1 Moir Stakes, but I’m sticking with Cavalry Girl. She’s super fit, the stable is flying and she possesses great early speed. We also get Craig Williams aboard.
Randwick Race 1 – 1400m
The topweight, Felix Magestic has gone from $6 into $5.50 and I think it should be shorter.
Punting Form AI has the seven-year-old marked much shorter than the market. The stable and jockey are both in form and it produced the fastest benchmarks of this field last start.
Randwick Race 4 – 2400m
Fernao ($6) is a bet. He has produced two outstanding final 600m figures in the past five weeks. There’s late speed, a positive map and the soft track is another tick.
Randwick Race 6 – 1200m
I’m sticking with Chilly Girl ($3.50) in what looks a tough heads-up battle with Pembrey ($2.10). I prefer the $3.50 versus taking $2.10.
The map looks positive, the benchmarks are electric and I normally have plenty of confidence with Tim Clark aboard.
Randwick Race 7 – 1400m
Idle Flyer ($2.60) is the bet here. She produced outstanding benchmarks two weeks ago and the filly looks comfortable stepping up in grade.
Zac Lloyd and Matthew Smith are a great combination, too.
Randwick Race 9 – 1600m
Lindermann ($2.70) is the play.
He was excellent second-up last preparation. Chris Waller will have him ready and Nash Rawiller should make him very hard to run down.
Eagle Farm Race 10 – 1200m
Hell ($4.60) and King Kapa ($8) both look over the odds.
Hell is the standout for me. I’m expecting him to get across and control the race from a good gate, with the Punting Form data showing a 27% map edge. He also ran very quick time last start.
Morphettville Parks Race 2 – 1000m
There will be dozens of Punting Form subscribers finding Deepfloat Diva ($4.60). The market says $4.60, while Punting Form AI has her marked around $3.
She produced great closing sectionals last start and has a history of fast final 600m performances.
Morphettville Parks Race 4 – 1000m
Grand Host ($5) is a fantastic bet.
He should get cover and possesses the quickest closing speed in the race. Money has already arrived overnight and I expect him to continue firming.
Belmont Park Race 3 – 1200m
I’m trying to get my money back on God’s Gate ($3.60).
I love the seven-day back-up, always. The distance is ideal, he’s with an experienced team and this week we get $3.60.
Roughies
A couple at bigger odds worth including:
Randwick Race 8 – Roselyn’s Star ($9)
Morphettville Parks Race 6 – Territorian ($10)
