Mark Zahra deserves enormous credit for winning Saturday’s Q22 aboard Royal Supremacy, but the bigger question is how was he allowed to do it so comfortably?
The raceday scratching of Pride Of Jenni fundamentally altered the complexion of the race. One of Australia’s most aggressive front-runners was suddenly out of the contest, leaving a clear tactical vacuum in a $1.2 million Group 2 featuring some of the best jockeys in the country.
Zahra recognised the opportunity immediately and seized it.
The numbers show just how extraordinary that opportunity became. Daily Sectionals’ Vince Accardi reported that Royal Supremacy was a staggering 28.2 lengths below standard to the 800m mark. While the wet conditions need to be taken into account, that remains an exceptionally slow tempo for a race of this quality and value.
In simple terms, Zahra led at a crawl.
It was one of the more remarkable tactical contests seen at Group level in recent years. Royal Supremacy rolled to the front and established a sizeable break through the middle stages, creating a visual that was familiar to anyone who has watched Pride Of Jenni race. The crucial difference, however, was that Pride Of Jenni generally creates those margins while running at a genuinely strong tempo and applying sustained pressure to her rivals. Royal Supremacy was achieving the same separation while expending far less energy.
As the race developed, it became increasingly difficult to escape the conclusion that the leader was being afforded a luxury rarely seen at this level. Zahra was able to dictate terms, control the tempo and maintain a significant advantage over the field, yet there was no meaningful challenge from any rival to force him out of his comfort zone or make him spend fuel before the race reached its decisive stages.
That is not intended as a criticism of Zahra. If anything, it is the highest compliment.
He rode the race beautifully.
The criticism belongs with the collective decision making of those behind him.
This wasn’t a field of inexperienced riders struggling to assess a changing race shape. The beaten jockeys included James McDonald, Nash Rawiller, Luke Nolen, Jason Collett, Jordan Childs, Ben Melham, Robbie Dolan and Jamie Melham. Collectively they have won countless Group 1 races, major staying contests and some of the most important races in Australia. They are elite riders and their records speak for themselves.
Which is precisely why the race was so perplexing.
Every jockey makes mistakes and every rider occasionally gets a race wrong. Viewed in isolation, however, this looked like a collective tactical failure from a group of world class hoops. At some point through the middle stages, somebody needed to make Zahra uncomfortable. Somebody needed to bridge the gap, force an increase in tempo or at least present the leader with a challenge.
Instead, Royal Supremacy was allowed to continue on his terms.
The comments of Half Yours co-trainer Tony McEvoy in the stewards’ report were particularly telling. McEvoy noted that Royal Supremacy had been afforded an uncontested lead and was able to dictate the race without significant pressure through the middle stages, adding that this was a contributing factor in the beaten favourite being unable to make sufficient ground in the straight.
It was a measured assessment, but one that aligned with what many punters were thinking as they watched the race unfold.
Jamie Melham was questioned by stewards regarding whether she had opportunities to improve earlier aboard Half Yours and explained that she was mindful of the Heavy 9 conditions and reluctant to expose the gelding too far from home.
The broader issue, however, extends well beyond the ride on Half Yours.
The other seven beaten jockeys also had opportunities at various stages to alter the complexion of the race. Whether it was moving earlier, improving around the field or simply applying some pressure to the leader, there were numerous chances for somebody to force Zahra into making a decision.
That is what makes the stewards’ report somewhat unsatisfying. Melham’s ride was examined because she partnered the beaten favourite, but the bigger story wasn’t any one ride. It was the collective failure of the chasing pack to react to a race shape that appeared increasingly untenable.
This was not a Maiden at a country meeting. This was a $1.2 million Group 2 featuring some of the best jockeys in Australia. Collectively, they allowed one of their peers to dictate a brutally slow tempo and establish a winning break without ever having to defend his position.
Of course, there may have been perfectly valid reasons for the decisions made behind the leader. Riders may have felt their mounts were not travelling strongly enough to improve, they may have been wary of the testing conditions, or they may simply have expected Royal Supremacy to come back to them.
The problem is that the data suggests the opposite occurred.
The race increasingly resembled a contest in which the mathematics no longer worked for those behind the leader. Royal Supremacy had secured a substantial advantage, was controlling the tempo and was doing so without being placed under any significant pressure. Yet the response from the chasing pack never came.
The sectionals only reinforce that conclusion. Half Yours recorded the fastest final 400 metres of the entire meeting, stopping the clock in 22.19 seconds despite contesting the second-longest race on the card. Think about that for a moment. A horse running in a 2200-metre Group race on a Heavy 9 track produced the best closing split of the entire day.
What more could he realistically have done from where he was at the top of the straight?
When a horse can unleash the fastest final 400 metres of the meeting and still never look like getting to the winner, it becomes difficult to argue the race was decided by superior finishing speed. The shape of the race had already done much of the damage.
Perhaps there were reasons. Perhaps riders believed the conditions would punish any horse attempting a sustained mid-race move. Perhaps they felt Royal Supremacy would come back to them naturally. Perhaps their own mounts simply weren’t travelling well enough to improve.
Whatever the explanation, the outcome was undeniable.
A $1.2 million Group 2 was run almost entirely on the leader’s terms, and one of Australia’s premier jockeys was allowed to dictate proceedings exactly as he pleased.
Royal Supremacy deserved the victory and Zahra deserves every accolade that comes with it.
The uncomfortable reality for the beaten brigade is that, from the outside looking in, the race appeared to be over long before the field straightened. The data suggests that may not be far from the truth.
