Dean Watling dissects tactical Queen Elizabeth Stakes showdown at Randwick

Dean Watling has gone runner by runner through Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick, with the autumn’s headline act shaping as one of the most tactical editions of the race in recent years. There is no shortage of class, but with multiple on-speed influences and key runners drawn to need the race run their way, map and tempo look set to decide everything.

Dean Watling’s Queen Elizabeth Speed map

Dubai Honour – Cracking ride by Marquand in the Tancred when unsettling the field and almost pinching the race. Gate 5 should see him roll to the front again, 2400m back to 2000m suggests to me he’ll turn it into a proper 2000m contest. That’s his best chance of winning.

Sir Delius – He has the most improvement to come in the field, improved sharply second-up in the Ranvet when only 1.13L off Aeliana. This screams “peak rating” third-up set up. He does draw a good gate but will need to be on his game in the first 200m to land in a positive spot.

Light Infantry Man – A hard horse to catch, comes off a last start Australian Cup win. No Pride Of Jenni here but I dare say it’ll be a strongly run 2000m contest which does suit.

Lindermann – The most improved galloper in Australia over the past two years. Dry deck, 1600m to 2000m is now his optimum. He’ll slide across and land up on speed, the query is how soft he gets it with other on-speed runners engaged.

Wootton Verni – Dropped back in grade last time out in the Neville Sellwood and won impressively. Full confidence now but faces a stiff ask here, add to that he does draw to spot the field 3-4L.

Caviar Heights – Was no match for Wootton Verni last time out in the Neville Sellwood. Needs to improve sharply here.

Autumn Glow – Shooting for 12 in a row, her last start demolition of the George Ryder was her best figure to date. Everything sectionally suggests 2000m will suit her down to the ground. The biggest tick come Saturday is a firm deck for her, handles wet but is a better horse on dry. Maps to find 1-1 and is $1.40 for a reason.

Aeliana – Thrilling win in the Tancred when reeling in Dubai Honour in a career-best performance. She was only 0.4L off Autumn Glow in the Verry Elleegant Stakes two back. $8 vs $1.40 – hmm. The query here is the draw, she’ll either end up last or roll to the front, that’ll likely dictate her race.

Selections:
(7) Autumn Glow
(1) Dubai Honour
(2) Sir Delius
(8) Aeliana