Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Newmarket Handicap using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s race.
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In The Lab | Newmarket Handicap | Group 1 Handicap 1200m
The track – unique features of Flemington 1200m course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Good 4. Rail Out 6m. Fine
- Settling midfield with cover is the most profitable
- On speed horses are disadvantaged losing at 18% ROI
- Barriers 4-7 are performing best with a 10% strike rate
- Inside two lanes are historically inferior
Speed map & tempo:
The tempo appears moderate with pace coming from Caballus, Sghirripa and Gallant Son:
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- Shane & Cassie Oxlade and Harry Coffey have a 441% POT with a S/R of 50%
- John McArdle and Craig Williams are going well with a S/R of 22% and POT of 195%
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Newmarket Handicap. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried, margin spread and race quality.
| Date | Horse | Age | Sex | Weight | Margin | Racelab Rating |
| 08/03/25 | Joliestar 4M | 56.0kg | 1.25L | 108.5 |
| 09/03/24 | Cylinder 3C | 51.5kg | 1.25L | 107.0 |
| 11/03/23 | In Secret 3F | 51.5kg | 1.0L | 108.0 |
| 12/03/22 | Roch ‘N’ Horse 5M | 52.5kg | 0.4L | 109.1 |
| 06/2/21 | Zoutori 5G | 57.0kg | 0.2L | 109.7 |
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Newmarket Handicap:
Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win.
| Weight | Rating |
| 57.5kg | 111.4 |
| 57.0kg | 111.0 |
| 56.0kg | 110.3 |
| 55.0kg | 109.6 |
| 54.0kg | 108.7 |
| 52.0kg | 106.9 |
| 50.5kg | 105.8 |
| 50.0kg | 105.4 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below:
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price.
The verdict and betting strategy:
Fifteen runners compete in the 2026 Newmarket handicap. Tentyris was super impressive in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes but does have to carry 57kg here – he seems skinny enough. My Gladiola seems to be about the right price but I’m not convinced that she will see out the distance. The horses I’m looking for are all 1200m sprinters. War Machine brings some strong straight form and had excuses last start – worth a play at the price. Benedetta didn’t have much luck in the Lightning and will appreciate the rise in trip. Wodeton hasn’t been friendly to punters since his debut however his jump out down at the track was sharp and the camp are happy with him. With 50kg on his back he’s worth a play at odds.
Backing the overs:
War Machine (WIN)
Benedetta (WIN)
Wodeton (WIN)
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
