Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 4 (4) Paradoxium
Next Best: Race 8 (1) Autumn Boy
Best Roughie: Race 5 (9) Horseshoe Hill
Turf Talk
- Randwick hosts a strong ten race card headlined by the Group 1 Randwick Guineas and Canterbury Stakes.
- Tempo looks moderate across several races, which could place an emphasis on tactical positioning.
- Rain is forecast later in the day which could have an impact on the later races, particularly the Canterbury Stakes.
Stats that matter
- The Reisling and Todman Stakes remain key Golden Slipper lead-ups with 11 of the past 15 Slipper winners coming through those races.
- The Randwick mile can favour horses settling close to the speed when tempo is moderate.
- Track condition late in the day may influence betting strategies in the final three races.
Race by race overview
Race 1
Tricky event to open the program.
(4) Iceman goes on top for the in-form Conners camp, found the line well last start and maps ideally second up.
(1) Art Volant is 0/6 at the track but should get her chance again. Tactically versatile and has fitness on side.
(3) Zenmaster comes off a last start win in this class and stays at 1600m where three of his four career wins have come.
Outside of that, watch for (8) Kilbrannan to flop out the back before rattling home.
Selections:
(4) Iceman
(1) Art Volant
(3) Zenmaster
(8) Kilbrannan
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
Cracking staying event to ease into the program. Good speed expected up front.
Liked the way (12) Juja Kibo found the line first-up and since had a tick-over trial. Yes, tricky map, but he does have tactical versatility.
No knock on (7) Piggyback, she was outstanding last start when winning with a peach of a ride and once again maps ideally here.
(9) Star Of India was the run of the race last start when making up a stack of ground, strips fitter and goes in the numbers.
Selections:
(12) Juja Kibo
(7) Piggyback
(9) Star Of India
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
The fillies clash in the Group 2 Reisling Stakes over the 1200m and notably 11 of the last 15 Golden Slipper winners have come through the Reisling or Todman Stakes.
Hard to go past (1) Agrarian Girl, huge odds on debut but blew her rivals away with a dominant front-running display. She should get a soft tempo up front and could start shorter in the market.
(2) Chayan was a flashing light first-up behind Blue Diamond winner Streisand before being camped six-wide without cover in the Diamond, a huge effort. James McDonald goes on which is a big positive.
(12) Rachini is the big watch, sticky draw but looks to have grown wings since joining the Baker yard.
(8) Naadra maps ideally from barrier two and can only improve second-up.
Selections:
(1) Agrarian Girl
(2) Chayan
(12) Rachini
(8) Naadra
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4
The colts and geldings clash and I’m keen to bet up on the Bjorn Baker-trained (4) Paradoxium. He simply has to win this race if he wants to run in a Golden Slipper which means there is plenty of intent here. Loved his recent trial and like his map.
(1) Stretan Ruler had the shades on last time out and blew his rivals away, though he did find the rails in run which helped. Rock hard fit and the horse to beat.
(8) Wolf Gap was a smart debut winner at Warwick Farm and brings the X-factor.
Expect (2) Hidrix to bounce back with the blinkers going on.
Selections:
(4) Paradoxium
(1) Stretan Ruler
(8) Wolf Gap
(2) Hidrix
Suggested Bet: Paradoxium WIN
Race 5
Another smart contest in the Fireball Stakes for the three-year-olds.
(9) Horseshoe Hill has come up huge odds here. He’s been off the scene 245 days but returns with two excellent trials and was last seen running second to Raging Force which ties in well here.
(3) Beadman is respected but looks short at around $2.50 and may want rain to justify that quote.
(1) Hidden Motive has again trialled well and should land on speed from gate two.
(6) Caffe Florian has had just the one trial but is a progressive filly.
Selections:
(9) Horseshoe Hill
(3) Beadman
(1) Hidden Motive
(6) Caffe Florian
Suggested Bet: Horseshoe Hill EW
Race 6
Even contest overall with little obvious tempo over the mile.
(5) Unleeshing was a dominant last start winner over this trip and comes here after 28 days with a smart tick-over trial. Sticky gate but trusting Jason Collett.
(2) Pinito savaged the line first-up posting the meeting’s best last 600m and can only improve second up with James McDonald aboard.
(1) Quietness maps well from the inside draw after sneaky good trials and Berry takes the ride.
(9) Sweltering found the line well first-up and will appreciate getting up to the mile.
Selections:
(5) Unleeshing
(2) Pinito
(1) Quietness
(9) Sweltering
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
Intriguing edition of the Challenge Stakes over 1000m.
(8) Raging Force goes on top, he gets a lovely setup here first-up after some slick trials and the gate suits with rain forecast.
(1) Giga Kick was ridden upside fresh on a hot tempo and while the 1000m is the query, he’s the class runner and handles all conditions.
(3) Skybird is fascinating after winning the Group 1 Lightning Stakes fresh over the 1000m and now gets the equicast removed which is significant.
(4) Generosity maps well first-up with James McDonald sticking.
Selections:
(8) Raging Force
(1) Giga Kick
(3) Skybird
(4) Generosity
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 8
The Group 1 Randwick Guineas is the feature event of the program and what a field it is. Not much speed expected which may turn it into a tactical race.
Keen to side with the Chris Waller-trained (1) Autumn Boy who was exceptional late first-up in the Hobartville Stakes when closing against a heavy rails bias. He strips fitter and maps much better stepping to the mile.
(9) Sheza Alibi is the X-factor with a push-button turn of foot and if it becomes a sit and sprint she is the danger.
(3) Ninja is the map horse rolling forward and the mile looks within reach.
(2) Attica rounds out the numbers and could be ridden aggressively by Nash Rawiller.
Selections:
(1) Autumn Boy
(9) Sheza Alibi
(3) Ninja
(2) Attica
Suggested Bet: Autumn Boy WIN
Race 9
Wide open edition of the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes with rain forecast which could change the complexion of the race.
(7) Lady Shenandoah was strong late fresh over 1200m and looks to have come back wanting ground this preparation. Up to 1300m on a wet deck suits although the gate is tricky.
(6) Joliestar is respected but price and potential rain are queries. If it stays on a Good or Soft track she’s the one to beat.
(8) Beiwacht is intriguing back to Sydney, back around a bend and out in trip.
(4) Yorkshire rounds out the numbers.
Selections:
(7) Lady Shenandoah
(6) Joliestar
(8) Beiwacht
(4) Yorkshire
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 10
If the track remains in the Good to Soft range I’m keen to finish the program with (2) Gangsta Granny. She’s a mare rising through the grades quickly.
(3) Idle Flyer brings a sharp last start SP and has trialled well, barrier two and a soft deck suit although a heavy track may not.
(1) Abounding is the market watch with strong trials up north and often underestimated in betting.
Selections:
(2) Gangsta Granny
(3) Idle Flyer
(1) Abounding
Suggested Bet: Gangsta Granny WIN
