Racelab analysts have identified a pair of runners that profile ideally for conditions at both Doomben and Flemington on Saturday, with proven staying quality and wet track ability key themes behind the selections.
At Doomben, the team is happy to side with a hard-fit three-year-old coming off a peak performance on the quick back-up, while at Flemington they believe the market may have underestimated a last-start Sydney Cup winner perfectly suited dropping back to 2800m in the Andrew Ramsden.
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Doomben Race 7 – Beadman
Beadman caught the eye with a powerful late finish to win the Gold Coast Guineas last Saturday and Racelab expects the colt to be even better suited returning to 1200m this weekend.
The son of Snitzel maps to settle much closer from barrier one after getting back in the Guineas and looks ideally placed to take advantage of what are expected to be testing track conditions.
Importantly, Beadman has already shown he excels on rain-affected ground and his best career performance came over this distance range in the Ken Russell Memorial, where he demolished his rivals by eight lengths on a wet surface.
Hard fit, proven in the conditions and backing up quickly, Racelab believes he shapes as a major value play around the $10 mark.
Flemington Race 7 – Changingoftheguard
Racelab is also keen to side with last-start Sydney Cup winner Changingoftheguard in what shapes as a fascinating edition of the Andrew Ramsden.
The gelding profiles perfectly for the conditions of the race and has consistently produced the benchmark figures typically required to win an event of this quality. Incredibly, he has run to the required Racelab rating in 10 of his past 11 starts.
His Sydney Cup victory proved he runs a strong two miles, meaning the drop back to 2800m should hold no concerns whatsoever.
Tactically, the race also looks likely to suit. Changingoftheguard does his best work when ridden positively and allowed to roll along on speed, with Declan Bates appearing an ideal booking to execute that pattern.
The obvious query is whether the gelding can reproduce the peak figure he produced in Sydney after a 35-day freshen-up, particularly given he was on the seven-day back-up when winning the Sydney Cup.
However, Racelab believes the market has already factored that risk into the price and there is enough evidence to suggest he can still perform at a high level off a break, having previously won a stronger race at Randwick following a similar 35-day gap between runs.
At around the $5.50 mark, Racelab sees him as one of the better betting plays on the Flemington program.
