Interesting race to kick off proceedings. As we often see, Waller holds the keys to the betting here with three main chances. Rocket Girl ($2.35) has come out and will instead go around in R8 at Hawkesbury on Thursday, so I’m keen to find stablemate Snitzel’s Girl. I loved her first trial when getting back before finding the line impressively. Put a pen through the second trial when she was held up and resented the tight gap. I like her drawn out and she’s come up at good odds.
The third Waller runner, Consulate, is the danger. I’m not sure what Chad does from the wide gate, but she should have won last start with a better ride. Lone Piper should roll forward second-up with a complete lack of speed here and looks the forgotten horse. Woodenbridge is next best but looks rock-bottom odds at $4.40.
Suggested bet: Snitzel’s Girl & Consulate WIN
Happy to back Glissando at odds. She has had quiet but impressive trials, working through the line exceptionally well. The wet is unknown but, at $15 and with the 2kg claim, she’s worth a small play.
Ready Forcocktails brings the race fitness, coming out of a very strong rating race. From the smart gate, I expect Tyler to take up the running and use that fitness to his advantage. Pierro Lad is an interesting runner with key race fitness, now in his second preparation, and has trialled up well enough. Gate 1 is a smart advantage too. Pharland rounds out the numbers but does need to improve.
Suggested bet: Glissando EW
Not a whole lot of speed to report up front here, which is key to note. Keen to find the Chris Waller-trained Ballpark, who was dominant in a very similar race last start. He should get a very soft lead from gate 4 and prove the horse to run down. The only slight query is whether $3.00 is too short.
Real Breaker has fitness on his side now, deep into the preparation. Gate 10 is sticky, but I dare say we’ll see Morgan push the button early and look to land in the first four. The Chris Waller-trained duo of Barbray and Sister Daae go into the mix, but both need to improve on their recent form to be winning chances.
Not a bad betting race here. The market looks to have completely overreacted with the Waller-trained John Dory. At $3.00, he looks poison odds and has fitness against him.
Hereward looks the overlooked runner. He was good two back in the heavy before choking down badly last start when starting $6.50. He gets the tongue tie on, which is key, the 2kg claim, and maps to lead. All lovely ticks.
Not sure what to make of the trials from Kenmare Bay, and the gate is tricky too, but he does bring a smart profile into this event. Emballee needs to tick the wet-track box but has reached peak fitness and stays at 1550m.
Suggested bet: Hereward EW
Big field with plenty of speed expected up front over the 1400m. I do like the setup for current $3.80 favourite Conchiero. He produced a smart on-speed effort fresh when landing outside the leader. Up in trip with added fitness second-up is a typical Waterhouse and Bott profile. The heavy is unknown, but they’re trained to run through brick walls at that stable.
Charleroi is the danger. He gives away key race fitness but does lap up the wet going. He was beaten by a subsequent fresh winner in his latest trial, which is nice form.
Iceman is going well and has key race fitness. His get-back, run-on pattern hinders him in these sorts of races, but what is key is he’ll find the rails from gate 2.
Perfect Picture was an impressive last-start winner, coming from last around the leader-favoured Canterbury track. He mixes his form but goes into the mix.
Near impossible race. Big field and a stack of speed up front over the 1250m.
From the good draw, I’ll put Sapling on top. I like the wet-track profile and the tactical advantage. The cherry on top is Roper’s 2kg claim.
Mind Ya Bizz hits this race in career-best form. Yes, it’s a rise in trip, but that wet-track profile will carry her a long way.
Smart fresh win by the Michael Freedman-trained Pazyryk. She got through the soft deck fine in doing so, but the heavy is another ask. She’s in the mix. Lull gets in light with the 3kg claim after a smart last-start effort. The rise to 1250m is the big question mark. Infusion draws poorly but gets in light with the 1.5kg claim and also goes into the mix. Tricky race
The market has hammered the early price about Dear Jewel, from $4.60 into $2.90. Three consecutive impressive efforts and she looks extremely well weighted back in class here. The drop to 1000m is the only concern, but with race fitness on her side and the booking of Clark, I dare say she’ll handle it with ease.
Huon is the danger. He’s won four of five fresh and loves getting his toe into the ground. I would have much preferred a Soft 6 or 7 given the lack of fitness, but gate 6 should ensure an economical run in transit.
Not sure what to make of the recent form of Massira, but she’s an out-and-out 1000m horse and does have a heavy-track win from previous preparations. Be Quiet is next best but will need a stack of luck from the draw.
