Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 6 (2) Surf’s Up
Next Best: Race 4 (4) Hezdarnhottoo
Best Roughie: Race 3 (8) Portico
Turf Talk
- Kensington is likely to race on a rain-affected surface, so proven wet track form and race fitness look key.
- Barrier draws and in-run position could prove crucial across the program.
- James McDonald has several key rides through the meeting and that could be significant in a number of races.
Stats that matter
- Wet track performance is a major theme right through the card.
- Several leading hopes come through strong recent trial work.
- Fitness edges look important in a number of the more even races.
Race 1
A smart 2YO contest kicks things off and with the rain-affected track I am happy to side with (2) Naadra, who brings the race fitness edge. She was solid on debut behind Wolf Gap before an OK run in the G2 Reisling, and this is a more suitable grade.
(1) She’s Extra has to carry weight but gets relief with the 3kg claim and the wet ground could play into her hands.
(5) Moscow Maid goes right in the mix and on a dry track may well have been the top selection.
(9) Leonessa can improve sharply second-up from barrier 1 with James McDonald booked.
Selections:
(2) Naadra
(1) She’s Extra
(5) Moscow Maid
(9) Leonessa
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
It looks (6) Metallic Cat’s race to lose on paper. The 4YO mare comes through a strong rating debut race where she rode a hot speed and was only collared late. She strips fitter and should get a much softer run up on speed here.
(8) Cosmic Eagle is knocking on the door, has the right draw, peaks for this and has handled rain-affected ground before.
(2) Lontrice has had support early and while he needs to improve on ratings, the market may be telling a story.
(7) Aladdin’s Girl resumes after showing promise in her first preparation, can run well fresh.
Selections:
(6) Metallic Cat
(8) Cosmic Eagle
(2) Lontrice
(7) Aladdin’s Girl
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
One of the tougher races on the program.
I am fascinated to see what (8) Portico can do on debut. His first two trials were solid without being spectacular, but the penny looked to drop in his third hit-out when he put a gap on his rivals in fast time.
(2) Under Focus brings strong form around The Next Episode and added race fitness second-up, but will need a good ride from the draw.
(13) Baylie’s Folly and (12) Peyton both come through the same Maiden and can improve with better luck after trialling better than they raced fresh.
Selections:
(8) Portico
(2) Under Focus
(13) Baylie’s Folly
(12) Peyton
Suggested Bet: Portico EW
Race 4
A good race with plenty of form to dissect.
Happy to side with (4) Hezdarnhottoo, who was impressive fresh off a long layoff before not handling the Flemington straight second-up. Back around a bend and with James McDonald booked, this sets up nicely.
(9) Hay Street is the watch, racing in terrific form and helped by the 1.5kg claim.
(3) Grand Prairie was terrific first-up over 1100m and strips fitter.
(6) Mafia looks a solid place hope in a competitive race.
Selections:
(4) Hezdarnhottoo
(9) Hay Street
(3) Grand Prairie
(6) Mafia
Suggested Bet: Hezdarnhottoo WIN
Race 5
Deep race with plenty of chances.
I like the look of (13) Royal Silver, who was very impressive first-up over 1200m at Kembla in the wet. The track will not be an issue, she will just need some luck from the draw.
(1) Azarax gets a jockey boost with James McDonald booked and maps to land outside the leader third-up.
(6) Monopolistic looks underrated in the market off a strong last-start win and a fitness trial.
(5) Just Maz has some query at 1400m but still goes in the mix.
(2) Rivendell also comes into calculations if the track remains in the soft range.
Selections:
(13) Royal Silver
(1) Azarax
(6) Monopolistic
(5) Just Maz
(2) Rivendell
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6
The best of the day comes up here with (2) Surf’s Up. I loved both recent trials from this well-bred mare. She was kept quiet in the first before trucking through the line, then looked smart again in her second hit-out when asked to find the line. The map is slightly sticky, but she looks the one to beat.
(4) Horseshoe Hill has been heavily backed early and drops sharply in class after a solid fresh run in Listed grade.
(3) Southern Heiress peaks fourth-up and should roll forward, which could be key in this race.
(10) Lighthouse Lass strips fitter 3rd up and the in-form Zac Lloyd jumps in the saddle. Looks a likely improver.
Selections:
(2) Surf’s Up
(4) Horseshoe Hill
(3) Southern Heiress
(10) Lighthouse Lass
Suggested Bet: Surf’s Up WIN
Race 7
A wide open staying event.
(3) Cap Saint Martin goes on top off the back of a very encouraging first-up 1600m effort. He rises to 1800m now and draws perfectly in gate 1.
(5) Kenmare Bay is ultra-consistent, handles wet ground and should be thereabouts again, though he does lack a knockout punch.
(9) Without Peer did enough first-up to improve into the mix with added distance.
(2) Glad You Think So drops back in class and should appreciate the conditions from a soft draw with the 3kg claim.
Selections:
(3) Cap Saint Martin
(5) Kenmare Bay
(9) Without Peer
(2) Glad You Think So
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 8
A good contest to round out the card.
(9) Spirit Of Camelot looks ready to peak third-up with James McDonald booked and should get a lovely run in transit from the draw. She handles the wet and looks the one to beat.
(7) Monte Veebee is consistent but has tested punters at short quotes recently.
Last-start winner, (5) Fiddlers Green, has form in the wet and can be in contention here.
(11) Transcend looks next best.
Selections:
(9) Spirit Of Camelot
(7) Monte Veebee
(5) Fiddlers Green
(11) Transcend
Suggested Bet: Spirit Of Camelot WIN
