The road to The Championships at Royal Randwick is building momentum and every major meeting in Sydney sharpens the picture ahead of Racing NSW’s showpiece fortnight.
This is NSW expert Dean Watling’s weekly portfolio update. Each Saturday he reassesses the market. Who is trending towards a Group 1 target. Who is building quietly. Who may have already peaked. Who may not have come up.
The goal is simple. Identify the genuine Championship contenders and separate them from the rest.
Here is Dean’s latest portfolio shift out of Randwick.
BUY
Autumn Glow
The best we have. A generational talent in the making and arguably the finest version seen to date. Her Apollo win was extraordinary. The late sectional strength was phenomenal, with her final 200 metres faster than her 400 to 200 split. That is elite acceleration. If she lines up in a Group 1 Queen Elizabeth, she becomes a defining player.
Lady Shenandoah
She is not a pure sprinter and that became clear in the spring. Dean believes she finishes much closer to Joliestar in the Expressway without the late check. It was a terrific return. Over further, she profiles as a serious autumn force. A Coolmore or Queen Of The Turf campaign looks very realistic.
Aeliana
A strong return from the mare. She was not sharp enough to match Autumn Glow when the sprint went on, but her final 200 metres indicated she has come back in great order. Her coat did not come on in the spring, which is a key observation. This preparation could produce her best work.
HOLD
Ceolwulf
A sound first-up performance. Without the blinkers, Dean knew the full effort would not be exposed. Post race concerns emerged with blood present in both nostrils, but he was cleared by veterinarians and it was not classified as a bleeding attack. That clearance is crucial. The preparation remains on track.
Angel Capital
Expectations were high given his unbeaten first-up record. The run was not poor, but it was not a statement either. He is chasing a breakthrough Group 1 and heads towards the Newmarket second-up. Dean expects a sharper version there. No reason to lose faith yet.
SELL
Gerringong
The lead up trial was underwhelming and she did not show enough on race day. Taking on this stable second-up always carries risk, but there is little evidence she has returned improved.
Lilac
She trials well but does not consistently reproduce it on race day. The stable has not been operating at peak level and when these horses fail to fire fresh, the campaign can quickly flatten out. For now, her rating slips.
The portfolio will continue to shift as The Championships draw closer. Timing, placement and peak fitness will define who is ready for Sydney’s biggest stage. Stay tuned each Monday for Dean Watling’s updated look at the stocks.
