The road to The Championships at Royal Randwick is building momentum and every major meeting in Sydney sharpens the picture ahead of Racing NSW’s showpiece fortnight.
This is NSW expert Dean Watling’s weekly portfolio update. After each Saturday he reassesses the market. Who is trending towards a Group 1 target. Who is building quietly. Who may have already peaked. Who may not have come up.
The goal is simple. Identify the genuine Championship contenders and separate them from the rest.
Here is Dean’s latest portfolio shift out of Randwick.
Buy
Autumn Boy
Outstanding fresh effort against the pattern of the day. Off-rails and off-speed were two strong negatives on Saturday. He latched onto the back of Napoleonic and found the line with intent. +3.5 from the 400m to the 200m, while his last 200m was +1.6. $3.70 into $2.90 late too was a nice market push. The Randwick Guineas is his race.
Attica
He did have rails in run and a direct passage in the straight through the key lanes 1–5, but you also had to be impressed with his last 200m. The shades stayed on here and he was +2.5 over that final furlong. Right on track but may want the 2000m.
Hold
Ninja
He had the absolute PR in this event. Add to that he had key race fitness on his rivals, but you still have to do it. Tommy was very soft on him at the end and he was holding Napoleonic. Yes, I think he’d get 1600m with his tactically versatile pattern, but I dare say he might come up short.
Napoleonic
I’d sell him over 1600m. I don’t think he’ll get the trip strongly. 1400m at the minute looks to be the end of his strength. Back to 1200m if they’re all over him. Going well.
Sell
Just Fine
Trialled up well, had the absolute perfect run here and couldn’t fire a shot in the straight.
Lazzura
She started $2.00 here and had every possible chance in run due to a peach by McDonald. Yes, she gave away race fitness, but she gives the feel at the minute she has reached her peak. Will start short in most runs and may need a wet deck to be at her best.
