Run To The Rose – Why St Gotthard is poison odds at $2.50!

Track Pattern – Rail +5m Entire

Expecting a Good 4 track here. The rail is +5m. I expect horses drawn to find the rails in the run to have a solid advantage. In the straight, lanes 1–8 should all be in play. I also expect horses landing worse than midfield off the rails to be disadvantaged.

Speed Map

The speed map looks the key to this race betting-wise. Let’s start with how important the 1200m chute start is. It’s an extremely tricky starting point if you’re drawn out, as you essentially turn for the first 600m. Horses on speed and finding the rails are often advantaged.

I expect the Waterhouse & Bott duo Plagiarism and Revengeance to use their smart draws and take up the running. This is cemented with the scratching of Music Time.

The next step of the puzzle is working out what Under Focus, St Gotthard, Central Europe and Warwoven do. I expect Zac Lloyd to find the leader’s back and rail aboard Central Europe. This is key with the rail out +5m and from the 1200m chute start. St Gotthard and James Mcdonald likely land in the 1-1, with Warwoven or Cormier on the back. This should push Under Focus to the rails and onto the back of Central Europe.

The rest will sort themselves out worse than midfield and look to run on.

Why St Gotthard Is Poison Odds At $2.50

St Gotthard is priced off “hype” and “expectation” here. Yes, he’s 2/2 overall, but I don’t think there has been enough substance in those wins, time or opposition-wise, to warrant $2.50 in what is a cracking field.

He has trialled up well and does map to find the 1-1, which are both positives. But at $2.50, he is priced as though he has already produced the figures required to win a race of this quality, and I don’t think we’ve seen that yet. He’s a good horse, no doubt, but I’m more than happy to take him on at those odds.

Key Chances

Central Europe

The talented colt is the best maiden in the country and should get every chance to break that duck here. He did plenty wrong fresh over the 1100m but still savaged the line impressively. He looks very well placed now up to 1200m, from an inside draw which should see him find the rails in the run and on the back of the leaders. Can only see him running well.

Under Focus

The sectinal star from the Rosebud. Gibbons had to take his medicine from the wide gate, snagging back to last. He has shown in the past he has tactical speed and can use his positive gate here to land in the first six. If he is to land on Central Europe’s back, then his chances only increase.

Warwoven

First-up run in the San Domenico was full of merit. Back and wide wasn’t the place to be fresh. Strips fitter here and I dare say they’ll try to be a touch more positive with the scratching of Music Time. If King is able to slot in on the back of St Gotthard, it’s game on.

St Gotthard

Maps beautifully, has trialled well and gets James Mcdonald aboard. He can absolutely win, but the entire knock is the price. At $2.50, I’m happy to bet around him.

Verdict

Central Europe – WIN (1u)

Under Focus – WIN (1u)

Happy to have a strong two-bet play here, taking on the $2.50 favourite and evenly staking both Central Europe and Under Focus. Both horses get ideal runs in transit, both look suited up to 1200m and, at around $8.50, look significantly better betting propositions than the favourite.