Turf Talk:
- Track has come up a Heavy 8. There has been just 6mm for the last 7 days, so either that rating is a bit wrong of the track is just saturated. Need to keep a close eye on times early in the meeting.
- Rail true at Sale generally gives those on speed their chance, light winds will further assist.
- Imagine they get into the track as the day goes on and ease off the fence.
Key stats:
- Billy Egan continues to lead the way going at 22% from his last 100 at a PoT of 30.6%.
- Craig Williams has several key rides and he generally strikes at Sale, going at 22.3% across his career.
Race 1
Looks good speed for a 1700m maiden.
(10) Urban Creed was heavily backed at a price on debut but never got into the race at Pakenham. Did produce the 3rd best last 400/200m split of the meeting and demonstrated that 1700m would suit. Suitable race for him to be winning.
(1) Bank Heist has had two runs for then new stable and acquitted himself well in each. Heavy track suits.
(3) Collizi was ten-weeks between runs when going to the line locked together with (12) Pari Moi at Geelong last start. Both can again run well.
(10) Urban Creed
(1) Bank Heist
(3) Collizi
(12) Pari Moi
Suggested bet: Backing Urban Creed, smaller Bank Heist
Race 2
(4) Nedhammer Hen seems a big price at $18. He trialled nicely prior to his debut, where he simply got too far back before hitting the line strongly. Step to 1400m is ideal and he handles sting out. Negative is the map, but happy to have something small at double figures.
(12) Tisseyre has trialled up well between runs. Should get a soft trail from a good gate.
(8) Expanding Power struggles to get out of the barrier but she has her share of talent. If she could get away cleanly she can figure in the finish.
(4) Nedhammer Hen
(12) Tisseyre
(8) Expanding Power
(10) Jenni Poppins
Suggested bet: Backing Nedhammer Hen 1×3
Race 3
(11) Off Their Perch is a talent, she just needs to improve her manners. She can get quite keen in the run, which is a risk out to 1400m, but think she’s the horse to beat. She was terrific second-up last campaign when narrowly beaten at Pakenham and a repeat of that will see her winning this.
(2) Womboyn has his share of talent but can’t get him priced anywhere near the $2.80 on offer. Unfortunately due to fog we were able to see his latest jump-out at Cranbourne. Beat a couple of subsequent winners at Yarra Valley when last at the sports but was just fair first-up at Kilmore prior. Can win, but happy to work around at the price.
(9) Censori had a long spell leading into this campaign but should be ready now after two runs back.
(11) Off Their Perch
(2) Womboyn
(9) Censori
(8) Jetsetter Jack
Suggested bet: Happy to watch.
Race 4
Good maiden.
(11) Laura Eliza has jumped-out nicely for her debut. Like the booking of Billy Egan and the 1200m from the chute looks a beautiful kick off for her.
(3) Eeny Meeny has trialled quite well. Concerns for mine are the concussion plates on for his debut and he can do a bit wrong. Suspect he pushes forward and puts himself in the early firing line.
(6) Thinkyahot, (9) Gatwick and (16) Highaboveme all come through the same race at Echuca last time out. Don’t think Gatwick handled the wet track (coupled with wide draw expect may be withdrawn here). Thinkyahot the pick of the three, but market reflects that.
(11) Laura Eliza
(3) Eeny Meeny
(6) Thinkyahot
(7) Zoudeadly
Suggested bet: Something small Laura Eliza
Race 5
A very even race, as the market would suggest.
(5) Bella Cinque doesn’t win out of turn, but she does go best fresh. Jump-outs have been typically good – she wins most of her jump-outs – but there’s also a sign of intent here having had three of them. Wet track record doesn’t look great on paper but when you dig deeper she hasn’t had the best of luck in some of those runs, including her one heavy track effort at Mornington (where she was frankly unlucky not to be in the finish).
(2) Nordic Strike has trialled up well enough and he posted a big rating early last campaign. He will lead and prove hard to catch – update his chances if leaders are dominating.
(10) Dismantle has looked good in jump-outs for the new stable and has residual fitness coming down from Queensland.
(8) Mad About Magnus has shown talent in both trials and jump-outs. Tempo/pattern flattered a bit last start but she’s got upside. Interesting to see how they ride her from gate one as she can muster and race on speed but they got the best out of her going back last start.
Race doesn’t end there.
(5) Bella Cinque
(2) Nordic Strike
(10) Dismantle
(8) Mad About Magnus
Suggested bet: Wide in quaddie!
Race 6
Big fan of (5) Princess Mess. She is a different horse without the blinkers this campaign, having trialled well leading in. Both wins have been dominant and the 1400m shouldn’t pull her up. Makes her own luck on speed and will get through the going.
(10) Queen Beira is a big price. Raec didn’t work out for her at Mornington, but she trialled nicely prior and gets a soft trail.
(9) Lots Of Time was strong late first go for the new stable at Pakenham. Gets Willo and if they are making ground she can run well.
(3) Chocolate Box was good at Pakenham and seems to have come back in good order.
(5) Princess Mess
(10) Queen Beira
(3) Chocolate Box
(11) She’s A Con
Suggested bet: Backing Princess Mess/Queen Beira
Race 7
This is a very even contest.
(2) Red On Red has returned in terrific order. Liked his 650m trial Moe then he treated his rivals with contempt at Sandown. 1600m back to 1400m is certainly a query, but given he only had the one 650m trial prior to his first up run there should still be some freshness in the legs. Loves the slop. Loves Sale. And, most importantly, he gets on so well for Jason Maskiell who has been in the pigskin for six of his eight wins. Should get a nice trialling run right behind the sped but will need a good steer to find the best ground late.
(11) Garnacho should get a soft run and is knocking on the door for another – long overdue – win.
(1) Stay Silent will give a good sight on speed.
(2) Red On Red
(11) Garnacho
(1) Stay Silent
(5) Thinxzo
Suggested bet: Something small E/W Red On Red.
Race 8
Think (1) Perfuse can settle handier here quickly up in trip and from a better gate. Got a long way back at Pakenham first up over 1400m and never figured, but work through the line was solid. 1700m on wet ground suits and I didn’t mind his trial at Ararat when Patrick Payne rode (would’ve carried a bit of weight) prior to resuming.
Looks like 1700m will suit (2) Harbour Town the way he stuck on at the Heath. Not convinced on the strength of his debut maiden win, but he’s got upside and should get a nice run.
(6) Golden Hips maps perfectly and relishes sting out while (11) Sabeeria gets the shades on dropping in trip.
(1) Perfuse
(2) Harbour Town
(11) Saaberia
(6) Golden Hips
Suggested bet: Small E/W Perfuse.
