Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 8 (17e) Cruiserweight
Next Best: Race 6 (2) Prince Tycoon
Race by race overview
Race 1
(3) Burning Heartz has jumped out well leading into her debut, finishing second to Lucky Brook, who was $4.20 and won on debut in Saturday grade at Caulfield last Saturday. She looks a talented filly and can make a winning start.
(1) Signed By A Kiss might not be the most naturally gifted runner in the field, but race experience is a significant advantage in a race like this.
(2) Anglais has attracted strong market support since markets opened and, coming from that stable, demands plenty of respect.
(4) Helizangel made a good debut and has scope to improve with that experience.
Selections:
(3) Burning Heartz
(1) Signed By A Kiss
(2) Anglais
(4) Helizangel
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 2
(2) Off Their Perch won with plenty in hand at Sale and looks capable of improving again. Patrick Payne traditionally has his team firing through the winter months and this horse profiles well.
(4) Meleys won during the Swan Hill Carnival, narrowly defeating King’s Reflection, who subsequently started $5 in Saturday grade at Flemington. That form reads strongly.
It surprised me when (8) Baltic Blizzard opened favourite, but the market has corrected since. He was below expectations at Caulfield last start, although there was confidence behind him, suggesting he’s capable of better.
(1) Miss Revealing also deserves respect.
Selections:
(2) Off Their Perch
(4) Meleys
(8) Baltic Blizzard
(1) Miss Revealing
Suggested Bet: Back (2) Off Their Perch and (4) Meleys.
Race 3
(8) Stupendous made up significant ground first-up and should appreciate getting back onto a more spacious circuit. Craig Williams can settle him closer and that should make him very hard to hold out.
(3) Geffina has been racing in excellent form and appeals as a genuine each-way chance.
(4) Perfect Ten and (1) Eleanor Dumont both won impressively at their latest starts and are capable of measuring up again.
Selections:
(8) Stupendous
(3) Geffina
(4) Perfect Ten
(1) Eleanor Dumont
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 4
(9) Empress Of The Sun is racing in career-best form after producing two outstanding ratings in succession. She stays strongly, possesses a nice turn of foot, draws well and gets the services of the in-form apprentice of the winter.
(3) Lightening Mann was generally ridden forward in Britain before arriving in Australia. After two conservative Australian runs, he was allowed to roll to the front at Swan Hill over 2400m and responded with an impressive win. There was market confidence around him on debut here as well, giving extra merit to that latest performance.
(7) Nearco Frod had a lengthy layoff before this preparation and has resumed below his absolute best, but still well enough. He looks capable of taking another significant step forward here.
Selections:
(9) Empress Of The Sun
(3) Lightening Mann
(7) Nearco Frod
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 5
I thought (1) Sea Poem was excellent first-up and looks capable of improving again against this level of opposition.
(6) Vienna Vixen hasn’t produced her best performances recently, but the market has consistently respected her. That alone suggests she’s worth keeping on side.
(7) Happy Link won impressively first-up on the Pakenham Synthetic, finishing off strongly. The query is whether that form transfers to rain-affected turf, making the formline slightly difficult to assess.
(11) Forever With Ned won well on heavy ground at Wangaratta, although the wide draw may force her to concede a start.
Selections:
(1) Sea Poem
(6) Vienna Vixen
(7) Happy Link
(11) Forever With Ned
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 6
(2) Prince Tycoon has the early speed to take advantage of the on-pace bias that often exists over 1200 metres at Sandown Lakeside. Third-up now, he looks ready to produce his peak performance this campaign.
(13) Cinturato will appreciate rain-affected conditions, although six furlongs may prove a touch sharp.
(11) Jugiong won well last start despite receiving little market support beforehand. He is likely to settle off the speed again.
(17e) Regal Secret has ability and should be able to roll forward into a prominent position.
Selections:
(2) Prince Tycoon
(13) Cinturato
(11) Jugiong
(17e) Regal Secret
Suggested Bet: Back (2) Prince Tycoon.
Race 7
(3) Dark Simba returned to form with a dynamic performance at Bendigo. While he’s already had 15 starts, there’s still a sense he hasn’t produced his absolute best and this could be the race where it all comes together, despite drawing wide.
Plenty of punters supported (16) Blue Willow last start, firming from $17 into $8 before finishing third. She looks ready to peak, has drawn well and shapes as a fascinating runner.
It’s impossible to take much from (6) From A Distance’s first two runs this preparation given the testing conditions on both occasions. Blinkers go on, he returns to a mile and, having only one jump-out before this campaign, there is every chance those runs were simply fitness builders.
(11) Glenfinnan drops back to a mile after failing over 2000m last start and can bounce back quickly.
Selections:
(3) Dark Simba
(16) Blue Willow
(6) From A Distance
(11) Glenfinnan
Suggested Bet: No bet at this stage, but monitor the market. Blue Willow and From A Distance become increasingly interesting if they continue to drift.
Race 8
(17e) Cruiserweight made a huge impression on Australian debut, firming from $8 into $3.50 before the jump. The race was run in fast overall time and he finished strongly, suggesting there’s still plenty of upside.
(5) Kahhof raced well on speed last start and should enjoy another favourable run. He looks to be improving with racing and could be ready to peak third-up.
(8) Botanical Boy resumes on a heavy track, which is a concern, while the Anthony and Sam Freedman stable isn’t operating at its usual level. He simply cannot start inside 4/1. I made him double figures.
(1) Raikoke is remarkably consistent and should again get every chance from an on-speed position.
Selections:
(17e) Cruiserweight
(5) Kahhof
(1) Raikoke
(8) Botanical Boy
Suggested Bet: Back (17e) Cruiserweight and (5) Kahhof.
