I do my form without looking at the market, which occasionally leads to a decent shock when I finally open the prices.
Sass Appeal at $2.70 was one of those.
Don’t get me wrong, she can win. She maps well, the Danny O’Brien stable is flying heading into spring and there are certainly reasons to think she can improve back on top of the ground.
But $2.70? I struggled to mark he $5, and could get her even longer.
Sass Appeal won four on the bounce to finish her three-year-old season and that obviously reads well on paper, but dig a little deeper and I’m not convinced the form is as imposing as the winning streak suggests.
Take out Ole Dancer, who had absolutely no hope the way the race was run when Sass Appeal beat her, and she really didn’t knock over much. Salty Pearl is probably the best benchmark from that sequence and Sass Appeal did take care of her in the Kewney, but this is different territory.
This is proper open-age racing against some tough, seasoned geldings along with a handy entire and an in-form mare.
Sass Appeal resumed with 51.5kg and was given an absolute picnic before winning, then went to Caulfield and was pretty plain despite racing in the better ground. She may well improve significantly getting back onto a firmer surface, but at $2.70 she needs to.
The map is certainly in her favour, although there is enough pressure drawn around her that she may have to take a sit rather than completely control proceedings. And despite stepping into a stronger race, she remains on the 54.5kg she carried in BM100 grade last start because regular rider Logan Bates can’t use his claim here.
She was very well beaten by Fancify last start, who she meets that mare at the same weight as their last clash.
Fancify goes all the way in an upset to finish the day at Caulfield!@jamieleemelham @cmaherracing pic.twitter.com/MpvVfFXaoQ
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) August 29, 2026
Maybe she is simply better than these, but on the two runs this campaign she’s going to need to find a few lengths.
Maybe I’m underestimating how much she can improve onto a good deck.
Maybe O’Brien’s flying stable has her ready to explode third-up and I end up looking like an idiot.
That’s racing. It’s a game for strong opinions.
Betting is about price, not picking the most likely winner, and I simply can’t get anywhere near $2.70.
So who do I want to back?
Café Millenium is an easy forgive first-up. He spent the entire race in the inferior ground at Caulfield and I think he’s a much better horse on top of the ground. His best rating came over this track and trip on dry ground in the Elms back in February, and the likely strong tempo should suit. He’ll drift back, but he’s at his best when he can get into clean air and build late.
Welcometotheshow interests me at a much bigger price. He was excellent behind Just Party in a slick Goulburn Cup, producing the fastest final 200m of the meeting, and I thought the wide draw was probably the difference between finishing where he did and being right in the finish. He draws much better here, Craig Newitt knows him well and he gets a small weight swing on Just Party. At around $13, he’s clearly over the odds to my eye.
And Just Party has to be respected. He had only one trial leading into the Goulburn Cup, so there should be improvement to come, and he looks to have returned a better horse this preparation. He should also get a lovely stalking run behind what promises to be a genuine tempo.
The race doesn’t end there.
Sass Appeal can absolutely win. But at $2.70, she can do it without me.
