Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 2 (2) Autumn Winter
- Next Best: Race 7 (9) Autumn King
- Best Roughie: Race 8 (12) Abounding
- Best bet: Race 1 (15) Champagne Lane
Turf Talk
- Rail out 5m
- Slight chance of light showers across the week
- Should not impact the surface, expecting a Good 4 or Soft 5
Key stats
- Tony Gollan coming off five winners last Saturday and has timed the carnival well
- Angela Jones striking at 20% from her past 50 rides with ROI of +22%
Race by race overview
Race 1
I’ve had a stack of time for (15) Champagne Lane her whole career and things just haven’t panned out. Today I feel it is in her favour. Collett is as good as any jockey that’s been on her. Draws to land in front of a handful of runners and there looks a decent tempo up front. Hoping today’s the day I end up in front on her.
(3) Mercurial Lady gets blinkers first time. Might be a good move as she had every chance and was a little plain last start. Good gate a help too.
(4) Without Parallel was three wide no cover for the apprentice last start and was brave. From gate 14 with the same rider there is a chance of it again. Any rain and she might be a good bet, loves the wet. Update, the rain has hit!
Gollan has (11) Time Of My Life and (12) Zoufani. They went head to head last start and there was only a nose between them.
Selections:
(15) Champagne Lane
(4) Without Parallel
(3) Mercurial Lady
(12) Zoufani
Suggested Bet: Win (15) Champagne Lane , save (4) Without Parallel
Race 2
Fresh horses on the staying scene up here usually win. (2) Autumn Winter fits the bill. A real stayer who outstayed them over 2400m last start. 2200m still suits and looks to have good upside.
(10) Prochester promised to do something for the new stable but has just been pass marks. Suitable race to run well in here.
(1) Just Flying is more than up to this, I just can’t pick his days anymore.
Extremely hard to find nice things to say about this lot.
Selections:
(2) Autumn Winter
(1) Just Flying
(10) Prochester
Suggested Bet: Win (2) Autumn Winter
Race 3
What to do with (10) Balance The Books? Looked brilliant last prep and was very plain fresh. Can win but hard to get past the last run.
(9) All Adore was dominant in town last start and off that looks the one they have to beat. Tactically versatile, just 51.5kg and a great overall record.
(2) En Pointe has been in races for a long way this prep. Comes out of a strong race last week and this is easier. Up 6.5kg and loses senior rider for an apprentice though.
(3) Wondereach changes stables and also gets an apprentice on. Best form is good enough but want to see some money for it..
(1) Esjay was huge last prep. May just need this run.
Selections:
(9) All Adore
(10) Balance The Books
(2) En Pointe
(3) Wondereach
Suggested Bet: Win (9) All Adore
Race 4
All the class is at the top but with big weights.
(6) So You Are was very good fresh over the mile. Goes well second up and the rise to 1825m suits. Has run well here before and this looks a good target.
(8) Jenni Moreese has gone from a non-winner to winning four in a row and is in career best form. She travels well, has a turn of foot and if she holds that form she can win.
(11) Cavalry Man has been excellent at his two runs back. Best last 200m in both and he bolted in on this track last prep. Three starts at this track and trip for two wins.
(10) Kaluakoi might be better over further but was still able to win fresh. Collett on and respect.
(1) Nellie Leylax comes right into this now it’s a heavy track. Fitter for recent runs and the wetter the better for him.
(2) Belvedere Boys and (3) Don Diego De Vega have the class, so respect market moves.
Selections:
(11) Cavalry Man
(8) Jenni Moreese
(2) Belvedere Boys
(1) Nellie Laylax
(6) So You Are
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
What an ordinary race.
(2) Icarian Dream has some class but has turned into a non-winner. Wide gate doesn’t help but is a better horse than these.
(6) Kohler Kid has upside. (7) Duomo is in form but this is harder. (8) Adorable Thought was good last prep but the trial was just fair. Other chances and not a race I like.
Two main hopes out have killed this race and I have zero interest in getting involved.
Selections:
(2) Icarian Dream
(1) State Visit
(6) Kohler Kid
(13) Maurraqa
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
Been a lot of talk about (3) The Next Episode. Very well bred and has a nice turn of foot. Killed them in a Doomben trial recently and look for him to be flashing late.
This is harder for (4) Boomtowns but the debut win was excellent. Love the fact he was tipped out and saved for the carnival. With Gollan you have to respect.
(7) Dream Roca is with Birchley and there is no better juvenile trainer up here. Was outstanding in his first prep and even won in NZ. Market is the best guide with Birchley runners.
Selections:
(3) The Next Episode
(7) Dream Roca
(4) Boomtowns
(1) Itchintogo
Suggested Bet: Trifecta 3 / 1,4,7, / 1,4,7,
Race 7
If you are looking at the lead-up race, (2) Brave Monarch is the obvious reference. Showed a turn of foot and put most of these away last time. Not many excuses behind and draws well again to get a great run.
(9) Autumn King won his first two runs this prep. Had to go back in a leaders race last start and the run was better than it reads. Might be the one they have to beat and is double figures.
(5) Options would have used the fresh run as a barrier trial. Target might be weeks away but could be the improver. Wet is only a positive and could have a small win bet at $41.
Not much speed here and (6) Kilman led last start in the G3 and was beaten a lip. This looks a very nice target. Waller and Maloney is a combo we don’t see often.
(15) Snitzel Dancer bolted in a CL1 and then won a G3 next start. Always produces good late splits and from the inside draw will take beating.
(12) Another Cashie missed the start with blinkers first time and was driven forward, which made it mission impossible. Produced strong splits and gets a better setup here.
Selections:
(9) Autumn King
(15) Snitzel Dancer
(5) Options
(2) Brave Monarch
(12) Another Cashie
Suggested Bet: Each-way (9) Autumn King and small win bet (5) Options @$41
Race 8:
It has been a bit of a strange prep for (12) Abounding but she should be ready to peak now. Last start was over an unsuitable trip and she looks set to show her best.
If they go hard, (13) Splash Back can produce strong late splits. Good second-up record and shouldn’t be underestimated.
(2) Uncommon James is very good on his day but the gate and second-up off a long break are queries. (11) In Flight is consistent but got the perfect run last start and draws wide here.
(10) Lady Of Camelot has had a long break. Any other stable you’d be cautious, but Gai’s runners are always respected. Similar story with (3) Reserve Bank, watch the market.
(1) Transatlantic has goals later in the prep but feel the rain might help his chances here.
Selections:
(12) Abounding
(13) Splash Back
(11) In Flight
(1) Transatlantic
Suggested Bet: Each-way (12) Abounding
Race 9
Not the easiest race to finish with. Good luck if you’re alive in the quaddie.
(5) Charcoals looks well placed. Last start was a forgive after being forced back. Produced strong late sectionals and gets a better setup here.
(14) Cosmo Centaurus has been strong late and is rock hard fit now.
(19) Grammar Lad is an emergency but has been impressive winning his past two.
(18) Flying Embers is no star but might be the best wet tracker in the race so has to go in here.
Selections:
(5) Charcoals
(19) Grammar Lad
(18) Flying Embers
(14) Cosmo Centaurus
Suggested Bet: Wet has put me off.
