PB Lawrence Stakes Day looks good. Cool but clear, with the track currently a Soft 7, and there’s a nice little Barrier vs Historical Run Style snack to consider.
CAULFIELD: WIDE AND FORWARD
Wide + Forward is showing a 17% edge at Caulfield. That should help a handful of strong horses in the market:
Race 1: Educated
Race 4: Sneaky Sunrise
Race 5: Closer To Free, Myhro’s Ruler
Race 6: Lara Antipova
Race 7: Private Eye, Evaporate
Race 8: Recommendation
Race 9: Machine Gun Gracie
ETHAN BROWN LOVES CAULFIELD
Ethan Brown is your man too, with 318 winners at an A2E of 1.29.
He brings in more cash than Glick’s Bakery + Attica combined. Neither is technically in Caulfield, but close enough.
ROSEHILL: ON-SPEED THE PLACE TO BE
For the Rosebud meeting at Rosehill, on-speed is best, but it races more consistently than Caulfield.
Waller matches the market, while Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, Joe Pride, Matthew Dale and Michael Freedman beat the market well.
DOOMBEN: MIDFIELD MAP EDGES
Freedman pops up in the Doomben data too. I think you’ll get sick of me sharing his stable’s record through spring.
The Barrier vs Run Style data at Doomben is significant too.
Midfield + Inside is a 19% edge, while Midfield + Wide is a 27% edge. Juicy enough sample sizes too.
That brings the following runners into focus:
Race 1: Lukey Blue, Hey Daisy
Race 2: Metal Boss
Race 4: Razors
Race 5: Pure Alpha
Race 6: Slipsain, Pink Vixen
Race 7: Blazing Harry
Race 8: Grinzinger Champ, Forgotten Spirit
Some of the female jockeys know what they’re doing too. Tahlia Fenlon, Tiffani Brooker and Chelsea Baker all have a couple of rides each and beat the market well.
Onto the best bets….
CAULFIELD RACE 4 – 1400M
With Mr Verse choosing Sydney over Melbourne, I’m backing Duchess Zou for Ciaron Maher. Jabez Johnstone is elite and claims 2kg, while the five-year-old mare ran -13.0 last start.
We’re getting $4.20, when PF AI says around $3.
BET: Duchess Zou @ $4.20
CAULFIELD RACE 5 – 2400M
Backing Myhro’s Ruler at $10. Big price for the last-start winner. Those benchmarks were sound too. We get that 17% map edge as well.
BET: Myhro’s Ruler @ $10
CAULFIELD RACE 6 – 1100M
I’m backing Natural Fling at $3. Excellent jump-out, Damien Lane pilots and the map looks great.
Lara Antipova will limit my stake a little, as the Punting Form database rates her well too.
BET: Natural Fling @ $3
PB LAWRENCE STAKES
I’m not betting in the race of the weekend. Willie Pike has a great record at Caulfield and I was with Cosmic Crusader last start, but $2.60 looks right in the PB Lawrence.
Quality opposition with question marks.
BET: No bet
CAULFIELD RACE 9 – 1600M
With Maher + JJ again. Light Infantry Man’s best is faster than the field. He’s normally better deeper into the prep and that’s why we’re getting $5.50.
But claiming 2kg, settling behind the speed and has every possible. Soft track also a plus.
BET: Light Infantry Man @ $5.50
ROSEHILL RACE 2 – 1300M
Finally a shortie I can pig out on. JMac + Waller. $1.70.
Just do the job, Steel Will.
BET: Steel Will @ $1.70
ROSEHILL RACE 6 – 1100M
Backing Polyglot to rebound. And I’m dangerously confident at $8.50. PF AI has remained very bullish, Tim Clark, who is on fire at the moment, pilots and the map looks OK.
Early market support too. And Michael Freedman trains.
BET: Polyglot @ $8.50
ROSEHILL RACE 8 – 1100M
Blue Door at $3.80 could be a chips-in bet for some punters. The Punting Form ratings and benchmarks are outstanding, albeit on a small sample.
But I’m backing Chilly Girl at $7 to get the slightly better run, with Tim Clark settling her on the bunny.
Betting for value with what looks like a crackin’ $200K Rosebud.
BET: Chilly Girl @ $7
ROSEHILL RACE 10 – 1400M
Backing Mr Verse with confidence at $10. Big price.
He leads the Top 4 Performers Tally, was impressive on debut for the new stable and should be faster second-up.
BET: Mr Verse @ $10
DOOMBEN RACE 2 – 1350M
How is Hot Image $13? I mentioned the Tiffani Brooker form at the top and the last-start winner has recorded the fastest benchmark in the field so far.
The map isn’t great, but the stable is in form, the distance is ideal and it’s a big price.
BET: Hot Image @ $13
MORPHETTVILLE PARKS RACE 7 – 1250M
Dancing Storm has a perfect PF Score and ran 3+ lengths quicker than the field over the last 600m last start.
Stable and jockey win and are in form, maps fine and looks big at $3.50.
BET: Dancing Storm @ $3.50
