Race 1
American Eagle (4) has trialled exceptionally well ahead of her debut, although I’m wary of backing this stable at the moment.
I’m not usually one to place too much weight on horses running through the line, but Judas Tree (3) cleared out from the rest of the field after winning on debut. He trialled well on soft ground at Pakenham before that run and looks well suited to wet conditions.
Avengers (5) was fairly good on debut at Canterbury and can improve after a few quiet trials.
Commit (1) raced wide and without cover at Sale and still won anyway.
Selections
(4) American Eagle
(3) Judas Tree
(5) Avengers
(1) Commit
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
A Long Story Short (1) has been given little chance in his first two runs, despite the market showing some expectation at both starts. He can improve quickly.
Gold Chariot (4) holds a decisive ratings advantage, but he resumes over a mile on wet ground. There isn’t much speed on paper, so he should be ridden positively.
Next Tuesday (9) was narrowly beaten last start in what was only a basic maiden, but this race is not particularly strong beyond the favourite.
De Ascot (2) was brave on pace and can run well again.
Selections
(1) A Long Story Short
(4) Gold Chariot
(9) Next Tuesday
(2) De Ascot
Suggested Bet: A Long Story Short (1)
Race 3
There’s no reason Silent Shares (1) should not be favourite, having finished alongside Stylish and two lengths behind Duchess Zou last start, albeit with 53kg. The concern is that there doesn’t appear to be much pace, so she may need to outsprint the lot of them.
Sea Poem (4) is ready to peak third-up. Relative to the pace, she was in a good position last start and wasn’t actually finishing as quickly as it may have appeared to the eye. Craig Williams taking the ride signals intent.
Delicate Lady (2) has figures that measure up well in this company, but seven furlongs may test her.
Second Time (7) won decisively last start, although this is a big step up in grade.
Selections
(1) Silent Shares
(4) Sea Poem
(2) Delicate Lady
(7) Second Time
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
Ravenclaw (1) has jumped out well and won last preparation on heavy ground at Rosehill like a bomb. He beat Catch The Glory, who is now a Group-class winner. Of course, the stable change is a query and he has not raced for 300 days, but he is highly interesting nonetheless.
Dreamzel (2) should roll across and lead. He is down significantly in class, and returning to 1000 metres looks suitable.
Faraway Dream (7) was caught wide last start and can improve sharply second-up.
Foxenberg (5) runs well every now and then.
Selections
(1) Ravenclaw
(2) Dreamzel
(7) Faraway Dream
(5) Foxenberg
Suggested Bet: Ravenclaw (1)
Race 5
Bold Suitor (6) had excuses last start and did start shorter than Satin Diva when they met at his latest run. He has jumped out well since and can return to form.
Satin Diva (5) raced five wide at Caulfield last start. She can improve quickly third-up and return to form.
Saluted (1) was slow away last start and his race was over from there. He can improve if he jumps well from an inside draw.
Blue Humma (3) won comfortably, but in a rating that does not measure up in this race. I think he will drift.
Selections
(6) Bold Suitor
(5) Satin Diva
(1) Saluted
(3) Blue Humma
Suggested Bet: Bold Suitor (6)
Race 6
Komito (12) resumed well at Bendigo, making up plenty of ground. He was backed off the boards at Caulfield to no avail, as I remember he became quite restless in the mounting yard. He is a nice horse, and I think he should be favourite. He is one to follow, even if he doesn’t win here.
Blue Willow (14) is always well respected by the market, but I think perhaps too much in this instance. She was good from midfield last start, though, and will appreciate Craig Williams taking over.
Dubai Watch (7) ran well at Randwick last start at big odds and is well placed here.
Imponderable (15) has been building towards a win this campaign.
Selections
(12) Komito
(14) Blue Willow
(7) Dubai Watch
(15) Imponderable
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
Nearco Frod (1) improved dramatically a fortnight ago to return to something like his best form, though he is still not quite at his peak yet. It wouldn’t surprise me if he improved again.
Empress Of The Sun (9) is so consistent at this level. She will run well, but I would lean to Nearco Frod.
Bluestone (2) finished quickly from the rear last start, but he always does that. He is not interesting from a betting perspective unless he doubles in price, and I doubt that happens.
Omamori (11) is a strong stayer who receives a weight swing on the two runners who finished in front of him last start.
Selections
(1) Nearco Frod
(9) Empress Of The Sun
(2) Bluestone
(11) Omamori
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
Supernima (10) raced wide last start and can quickly bounce back to form. I marked him slightly shorter than the market.
Touchdown (9) is a progressive Lindsay Park runner, but 1400 metres first-up from a wide draw may be a negative. He can be one to follow out of the race, as he should improve over a mile and beyond.
He’ll Rip (1) is consistent in this grade and must be respected after a string of good runs without winning this campaign.
Glasgow Lass (16) is a runner of interest. She has drawn 20 and will likely be given little chance from the gate, but she started single figures in a decent Caulfield race over an unsuitable 1100 metres first-up, and she was a Listed winner in Western Australia before arriving in Victoria. One to watch.
Selections
(10) Supernima
(9) Touchdown
(1) He’ll Rip
(16) Glasgow Lass
Suggested Bet: No bet
