With the first of the 2YO races for the season it’s a good time to take a look at trial watching philosophies. These aren’t objective, they are subjective, and are simply my approach to watching trials.
Watching trials and jump-outs is one of the best ways to get an edge on the punt. They give us a first look at how a horse is getting ready for its debut or coming back from a spell, how it’s handling pressure, and whether it’s ready to fire on race day.
Not every horse returns from the paddock in the same shape, and trials often expose those that are flying under the radar or those that aren’t quite there. Spotting both the good and the poor efforts can create terrific betting opportunities.
Here are the key things to look for when assessing trial performance.
Pressure and Response
Trials are rarely run at full throttle, but how a horse reacts when asked for an effort tells you plenty.
The ideal horse cruises through its work, looking comfortable and relaxed, yet shows another gear if asked.
Horses that run slick times under no pressure are always worth putting in the Blackbook.
If a horse is put under heavy pressure, even whipped, and doesn’t produce something special, that’s often a red flag heading into race day.
A good example of a horse doing it easily and running time is Pride Of Jenni at Cranbourne leading into this campaign. It’s an obvious example (she always trials well!) but it a clear illustration of a very good trial – if you saw an unraced horse do similar you’d be keeping a close eye on markets when it debuts!
Cranbourne Jump Out | Pride Of Jenni
A dominant jump out by Pride Of Jenni this morning at Cranbourne 👀 pic.twitter.com/dhcroiSezo
— Racing.com (@Racing) September 15, 2025
Time and Sectionals
Times are more important than who a horse is racing against. Just because horse A went around against a Group 1 horse and beats it is worthless if they ran a slow time (the Group 1 horse might have been out there for a leisurely gallop).
Compare a horse’s trial time against others from the same morning.
A slower overall time isn’t always a knock if the horse has reeled off a sharp late sectional. That shows genuine change-up speed, which wins races.
Where possible, get your hands on sectionals for trials, these can be hugely valuable in finding ‘hidden gems’.
Gate Speed / Early Speed
Where a horse lands in a race is critical, and trials give a reliable guide. If you are watching trials properly, you should be able to form an accurate speed map on a race with only debutants.
Horses that jump clean in trials usually repeat the trick on race day.
Horses slow away in trials tend to carry that trait forward. They can still win, but you’ll need to map them accordingly.
Track Bias and Conditions
Just like race day, the track itself can play a big role.
Some mornings certain lanes are faster, while others are a graveyard.
Be careful assuming a trial on Soft or Heavy means the horse will handle wet ground under race pressure. It’s only an indicator, once pressure is applied is when you find out whether a horse handles wet tracks. Fitness also plays a big role in coping with wet tracks.
Gear and Equipment
Always check the gear notes in the form.
Blinkers, winkers, and nose rolls can make a huge difference.
If a horse normally wears blinkers but doesn’t in a trial, expect a sharper effort once they go back on.
If blinkers go on for the first time in a trial and the horse improves, take note for race day.
Behaviour and Attitude
A horse’s body language often tells the story:
- Settling: Calm, relaxed horses usually replicate that on race day.
- Over-racing: Pulling and fighting the rider is a warning sign (mouth open/head in the air).
- Laying in/out: Horses that shift around can make life tough for jockeys.
An old example I use for a horse pulling in jump-outs is Yulong Wain here at Flemington (Red Jacket). He over-raced in both lead-up jump-outs before doing the same, and failing, as a short-priced favourite on debut.
Weight Carried
Not all riders are equal in trials.
Horses may carry trackwork riders much heavier than a race jockey.
Racing Victoria lists jockeys’ minimum weights. Use that to judge how much the horse was really carrying.
Be especially mindful if a jumps jockey, often 60kg or more, is on in a trial. Conversely, there are plenty of very lightweight jockeys out there, which needs to be factored in.
Trainer Patterns
Stables all have different trial philosophies.
Tom Dabernig: His horses often look sharp at the trials and race well early. Because the bar is high, it pays to be a little harsher when rating them.
Chris Waller: Rarely asks much in trials. His horses are usually ridden quietly, out the back, and only asked to extend briefly.
Building up a profile of each stable’s intent will sharpen your eye when watching trials seriously.
‘Past The Post’
Don’t just look at what a horse does to the line, keep following them until they pull up.
Quite often a horse will continue to improve through the line or be asked to extend past the post – you can pick up nuggets of gold in this period of the trial.
Check out our partners The Trial Files for more advice and coming winners from the jump-outs and trials
