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Davida ridden by Blake Shinn wins the Drummond Golf Handicap at Caulfield Heath Racecourse on August 08, 2026 in Caulfield, Australia. (Photo by George Sal/Racing Photos)

Davida ridden by Blake Shinn wins the Drummond Golf Handicap at Caulfield Heath Racecourse on August 08, 2026 in Caulfield, Australia. (Photo by George Sal/Racing Photos)

Sunday Review: The Heath delivers, Shinn shines and the learnings from Saturday

The Caulfield Heath again proved its worth as a fair betting surface, while Blake Shinn produced a riding masterclass and Jabez Johnstone continued to make his mark.

Matt Welsh by Matt Welsh
August 9, 2026
in Analysis
Reading Time: 6 mins read
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The Heath does exactly what punters want

The Caulfield Heath hosted just its third Saturday meeting since opening in March 2024 and, while you’re never going to hold a Cox Plate there, it continues to prove its worth.

It will never be Melbourne’s feature circuit, nor does it need to be. What it does do is race predictably and, in my humble opinion, that’s exactly what punters want.

Horses could win from anywhere on Saturday. They won closer to the inside and wider on the track, from the front and from the back. Importantly, that was no fluke.

I walked the surface during the week and it was remarkably even, particularly given we’re in the dormant season for kikuyu. It raced exactly as it walked.

And there was a touch of irony in all this. Saturday’s meeting was transferred from Moonee Valley while that track undergoes its redevelopment. Comparing apples with apples, the Heath is a far fairer surface for punters than the old Valley, with its 173-metre home straight.

Sure, we romanticise The Valley, and rightly so to a point. It was a fabulous cauldron for one day of the year, Cox Plate day. But strip away the romance and, if anything was a “dog track”, it was the old Valley.

The Heath is a momentum track and Saturday rewarded the jockeys who understood that. The aggressive riders were to the fore. Those prepared to put their horses into the race, build momentum before the home bend and make decisive moves were rewarded.

It’s not a circuit where jockeys can sit on their hands until straightening and expect their horse to sprint past rivals on a dime. And nor should it be.

The right horses won on Saturday and, importantly, the right jockeys won too.

We’ve had meetings this winter where results have been dictated by who found the right part of the track. Saturday wasn’t one of them. Talent, jockey skill and the run in transit decided races, not who happened to find the “best lane”.

For punters, that’s exactly how racing should be.

 

Shinn hits the ground running

It’s bloody good to have Blake Shinn back.

Shinn returned to the saddle last weekend after being sidelined following his fall on Melbourne Cup Day last year and it hasn’t taken him long to remind everyone what we’ve been missing.

Speaking of aggressive jockeys, he’s as good as we have.

As a punter who loves trying to piece together the puzzle of a race, sometimes successfully, sometimes horrifically, there’s something immensely satisfying about watching Shinn do exactly what you hoped he would. For a few fleeting moments, you convince yourself you can actually see into the future.

Davida was the perfect example.

She had been slow away at her previous two starts and it had proven costly. Shinn hops aboard, gets her cleanly out of the gates and from there you knew, or at least hoped, what was coming next.

Go forward. Take control. Make them catch you. That’s exactly what he did.

By the time Davida turned the top corner and faced the headwind, Shinn owned the race. He pinched some cheap fractions through the middle stages, then dialled things up around the home bend and had his rivals chasing.

Davida all the way…just 📸

Blake Shinn on the board at Caulfield 👑@blake_shinn @dobrienracing pic.twitter.com/1KN4mJlStG

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) August 8, 2026

It was an inch-perfect ride. Literally. One more stride and Jenni Multabella nails her.

Then came Changing Colours.

The ride couldn’t have been much more different, yet it showcased another part of what makes Shinn so good.

Changing Colours was allowed to balance up early, settling with just two runners behind her and travelling strongly. Approaching the home bend, Shinn was boxed away in an awkward spot and needed clean air.

The ease with which he manoeuvred her into the clear while building momentum around the bend was poetry. No panic, no stop-start. It all just happened.

Sure, he had the horse underneath him, but this was exquisite.

Two winners, two completely different rides. Davida was aggression and control; Changing Colours was patience, balance and timing.

That’s Blake Shinn at his best.

 

Jabez does it again

If Shinn’s ride on Davida was the best of the day, Jabez Johnstone’s aboard Stay Silent was a close second.

Settling outside the leader, Jabez wasted no time building momentum heading into the home bend, stretching his rivals before they even entered the straight and making the task for race favourite Celtics almost impossible.

Stay Silent wins again for Jabez Johnstone and Ciaron Maher 🥇🥇@cmaherracing @RacingBennett pic.twitter.com/XqfiuoV8Nr

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) August 8, 2026

Celtics ran enormous, but simply spotted Stay Silent too big a start when the race was there to be won.

It was another perfect example of how to ride aggressive and get the best out of a horse. Jabez made full use of Stay Silent’s cruising speed and, importantly, made the move before his rivals did.

Had he waited another 100 metres before pulling the trigger, I suspect the result is flipped.

Another proactive ride from an apprentice who continues to make every post a winner.

 

Custom burns punters

Despite a terrific steer from Jabez Johnstone, Custom wasn’t able to justify her very short $1.60 quote in the first leg of the quaddie, which was taken out by Flyer at a big quote.

Flyer flies over the top at $26 ✈️

A double for Jye McNeil!@JyeMcNeil @WarrenRacing @RosemontStud pic.twitter.com/lXrzd7VKLk

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) August 8, 2026

Looking back for reasons why, it’s easy to conclude she was highly flattered by two things at her previous start: a strong tempo that allowed her to get over the top late, and finding the best lanes on the track.

The first point also goes a long way to explaining the big rating she produced that day. Custom ran slick time compared with the older horses in the Monash Stakes, but on Saturday, in a race that lacked the same strong early tempo, she wasn’t the same mare.

That’s the danger on just relying on just ratings alone. Like any form factor, ratings are vital, but backmarkers rely on the intent of others in the field to produce their optimum rating, whereas horses that make their own luck control their destiny.

Custom is talented, no doubt, but she’s now two wins from 12 starts for a reason. She needs certain things to fall her way and, at $1.60, you’re paying a very short price about a horse who isn’t always going to get them.

 

Blackbookers from the bush

Oxley Tycoon (Bairnsdale Tuesday, Race 3) – A horse who showed promise at the trials last campaign but didn’t deliver on raceday. He was quickly gelded and that might just be the making of him. Oxley Tycoon trialled brilliantly leading into his return at Bairnsdale before producing a breathtaking near-last-to-first win around one of Victoria’s tighter circuits. It’s a long way from a Bairnsdale maiden to town, but I suspect he can measure up in much better races.

Bairnsdale Race 3 | Oxley Tycoon

Big win! Carleen Hefel gets her first winner back from injury 🔥

📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/N56CBjSYZm

— Racing.com (@Racing) August 4, 2026

Lepolo (Ballarat Thursday, Race 1) – A nice colt. He showed good ability at the trials and backed that up with a dominant debut win. Look, he beat nothing, but it was the manner of the victory that impressed. He’ll eventually get over a lot further than 1400m and looks destined to win much better races than a maiden on the synthetic.

Ballarat Synthetic Race 1 | Lepolo

The debutant dominates! 🔥 @HTCoffey & @mcevoyracing combine as the 3YO colt cruises home 💨

🥇 @NickoNoonan Next Best
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a034ry pic.twitter.com/mYieAvqI4P

— Racing.com (@Racing) August 6, 2026

Tags: Blake ShinnCaulfield Heath racingCaulfield Heath reviewChanging ColoursCustomDavidaJabez JohnstoneVictorian Racing
Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh is the founder of Betsy and one of Australia’s most respected form analysts. A former executive at Racing.com and Racing Victoria, Matt has built a reputation for market-leading analysis, clear communication, and a deep understanding of both racing and wagering. With Betsy, he has assembled a team of trusted, high-quality form analysts dedicated to delivering expert analysis that will arm Betsy punters for a winning day at the races.

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