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The Next Episode ridden by Mark Zahra wins the Asahi Super Dry Danehill Stakes at Flemington Racecourse on October 03, 2026 in Flemington, Australia. (Photo by George Sal/Racing Photos)

The Next Episode ridden by Mark Zahra wins the Asahi Super Dry Danehill Stakes at Flemington Racecourse on October 03, 2026 in Flemington, Australia. (Photo by George Sal/Racing Photos)

TAB early market movers: Derby Day plunges, Golden Eagle support and Melbourne Cup betting

TAB punters are making their moves ahead of Derby Day and Golden Eagle Day, while the Melbourne Cup market is also heating up.

Matt Welsh by Matt Welsh
October 26, 2026
in Tips
Reading Time: 10 mins read
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Nominations are out for Saturday’s opening day of the VRC Melbourne Cup Carnival, with TAB punters already making moves in the all-in markets.

Derby Day at Flemington promises a cracking card, while Sydney’s Golden Eagle meeting adds further depth to a huge afternoon of racing.

Several feature markets have been open for some time, but Monday’s nominations have prompted a fresh wave of support, including a handful of significant plunges at double-figure odds.

 

Flemington: Derby Day

The Victoria Derby market has been up for some time, but there has been fresh support on Monday for Stormy Marco, who is set to back up from last weekend’s Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney. Stormy Marco has firmed from $6 into $4.50 and now shares favouritism with True Rebel. Geelong Classic winner Murshihdi has also attracted support, shortening from $15 into $11.

Saturday’s Coolmore Stud Stakes is shaping as a cracking edition, with The Next Episode holding favouritism at $3. Dominant filly Satono Glow has attracted support, firming from $4.50 into $4, setting up an intriguing clash down the Flemington straight.

News emerged on Monday that Pride Of Jenni would not be taking her place in the Empire Rose Stakes, leaving Lady Shenandoah at the top of the market at $2.80. Surfin’ Bird is at $4.50, while Concord Connie has been one of the early movers, firming from $8 into $6.

Chris Waller has made a habit of winning the Carbine Club Stakes and could be in for another big Derby Day. His progressive galloper Unhinged, coming off successive wins in NSW, is now the $4 second favourite behind Ranarsson. The latter has quickly risen through the ranks with two dominant victories at Cranbourne and has been heavily supported since markets opened, firming from $8 into $3.50 favouritism. Glenorchy has also attracted interest, shortening from $11 into $8.

TAB opened the Damien Oliver Stakes at $8 the field, highlighting just how competitive Saturday’s contest looks. There has been some early support for Warnie, who has shortened into $6 favouritism.

The Rising Fast Stakes is an extraordinary betting race, with no fewer than six runners sharing favouritism at $8.

Among the best backed are Disneck ($15 into $8), Golden Strand ($15 into $8) and Granced Larceny ($11 into $8). King Zephyr has also attracted support, shortening from $15 into $9.

Backmarker Flying For Fun has been another notable firmer, backed from $4.50 into $3 favouritism for the Flemington Sprint.

One of the bigger long-priced moves has come in Saturday’s Vanity Stakes, where Grahame Begg-trained Blue Dream has been specked from $51 into $21. She charged home to win on debut at Kyneton and, while Saturday represents a sizeable rise in grade, at least a few punters are confident she can measure up. Regal Ambition heads the market for the fillies’ feature at $3.

 

Randwick: Golden Eagle Day

The newly minted Group 1 Golden Eagle headlines Saturday’s Randwick meeting, but there hasn’t been much room for punters to manoeuvre at the top of the market.

Sheza Alibi has stifled betting for weeks and remains the dominant $1.80 favourite. Beiwacht is the second elect at $6, while Autumn Boy and Skyhook have both attracted early support, firming from $11 into $8.

Jimmysstar heads betting for the Russell Balding Stakes at $3.50, but there has been support for a couple of his rivals. Headwall has shortened from $6 into $4.50, while Headley Grange has been a significant early mover, firming from $15 into $9.

Militarize hasn’t won since the 2023 Golden Rose, some 1129 days ago. The UK has had three prime ministers in that time, but punters are keeping the faith, with the former star colt heading the Sydney Gold Cup market at $5.

The early money, however, has come for Starzintheireyes, who has firmed from $11 into $7. Perisher has also had friends in betting, shortening from $15 into $9.

The Four Pillars Midway is another wide-open betting contest, with Alabama State heading the market at $6. However, there has been a significant move at longer odds for Cosmic Avenger, who has been backed from $101 into $34.

 

Melbourne Cup: Point Of Law heads betting

While attention turns to Derby Day on Saturday, the market for Tuesday’s $10 million Melbourne Cup is also taking shape.

Geelong Cup winner Point Of Law is the $6 favourite, having opened at $26, and is one of up to eight runners Ciaron Maher could saddle up in Australia’s most famous race.

Trustyourinstinct is next in betting at $8, while Defiantly, James J Braddock, Saint George and Shockletz are currently $11.

Saint George has been another significant firmer, having opened at $34, while Maher’s Geelong Cup winner Point Of Law remains the horse punters have wanted to back.

 

Melbourne Cup 2026: TAB all-in market

Tuesday 3 November. Fixed odds supplied 26 October. All-in betting. Prices subject to change.

Runner Opening win Current win Current place
Point Of Law $26.00 $6.00 $2.25
Trustyourinstinct $13.00 $8.00 $2.75
Defiantly $8.00 $11.00 $3.50
James J Braddock $11.00 $11.00 $3.50
Saint George $34.00 $11.00 $3.50
Shockletz $13.00 $11.00 $3.50
Enfjaar $51.00 $15.00 $4.50
Hopewell Rock $21.00 $15.00 $4.50
Stinger Glass $15.00 $15.00 $4.50
Juja Kibo $26.00 $18.00 $5.25
Middle Earth $26.00 $18.00 $5.25
Goodie Two Shoes $26.00 $26.00 $7.25
Sons And Lovers $21.00 $26.00 $7.25
Mr Monaco $21.00 $34.00 $9.25
Zahrann $15.00 $34.00 $9.25
Zakouma $15.00 $34.00 $9.25
Kings Valley $51.00 $51.00 $13.50
Kizlyar $34.00 $51.00 $13.50
Knights Choice $51.00 $51.00 $13.50
Pinhole $51.00 $51.00 $13.50
Royal Supremacy $34.00 $51.00 $13.50
So You Are $101.00 $51.00 $13.50
Soul Of Spain $51.00 $51.00 $13.50
Soulcombe $51.00 $51.00 $13.50
The Euphrates $26.00 $51.00 $13.50
Vauban $51.00 $51.00 $13.50
Wine Dark Sea $15.00 $51.00 $13.50
Asterix $51.00 $101.00 $26.00
Future History $101.00 $101.00 $26.00
Litzdeel $26.00 $101.00 $26.00
Onesmoothoperator $101.00 $101.00 $26.00
Small Fry $34.00 $101.00 $26.00
Strictly Business $101.00 $101.00 $26.00
King Pedro $101.00 $201.00 $51.00
Omni Man $101.00 $201.00 $51.00
Torranzino $51.00 $201.00 $51.00
Valiant King $51.00 $201.00 $51.00
Jennivamoose $51.00 $301.00 $76.00
Manzor Blue $101.00 $301.00 $76.00
Tags: Derby DayFlemingtonGolden Eaglemarket moversMelbourne Cup CarnivalRandwickTABVictoria Derby
Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh is the founder of Betsy and one of Australia’s most respected form analysts. A former executive at Racing.com and Racing Victoria, Matt has built a reputation for market-leading analysis, clear communication, and a deep understanding of both racing and wagering. With Betsy, he has assembled a team of trusted, high-quality form analysts dedicated to delivering expert analysis that will arm Betsy punters for a winning day at the races.

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