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Ceolwulf

Ceolwulf

TAB Market Movers: Aeliana dethrones Sir Delius as Cox Plate money rolls in

Ceolwulf has been heavily backed for the Cox Plate, while several significant market moves have emerged ahead of Saturday's feature meetings at Flemington and Randwick.

Matt Welsh by Matt Welsh
October 20, 2026
in One Pool, Tips
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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With the Cox Plate heading to Flemington while Moonee Valley undergoes its redevelopment, Saturday promises a fascinating edition of the weight-for-age championship, while Sydney hosts Spring Champion Stakes Day.

Acceptances aren’t until Wednesday, but TAB’s all-in markets are already providing some clues, with significant moves across several feature races.

Flemington: Aeliana takes charge of Cox Plate betting

Sir Delius has dominated Cox Plate betting for months, but there’s been a changing of the guard at the top of TAB’s market.

Aeliana is now the $4 favourite, with Sir Delius relegated to the second line at $4.50.

The biggest move, however, has been for Ceolwulf, who has shortened dramatically from $11 into $5 following his run in last Saturday’s King Charles III Stakes.

It’s been the opposite story for Birdman, who has drifted from $5 to $11 following his moderate performance in the Might And Power Stakes.

The two three-year-olds are firmly in contention, with Warwoven at $5 and Blind Raise at $13. Despite upsetting Sheza Alibi last start, Land Legend remains a $26 outsider.

There’s been limited early activity in the McEwen Stakes, where Extratcalactic and Jigsaw share favouritism at $3. The former has attracted some support, firming from $3.50 into $3, but otherwise the market has been relatively quiet.

After missing a start in last Saturday’s Caulfield Cup, Juja Kibo has been well supported to win the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. The stayer has firmed from $5 into $3.50, with victory securing a place in the Melbourne Cup.

True Rebel remains favourite for the Moonee Valley Vase, but Joely is rapidly closing the gap, having firmed from $6 into $4.50.

Flemington: Soverato and the three-year-olds attract support

One of the more significant early betting moves across the Flemington program has been for OTI Racing’s Soverato.

The mare has been backed from $11 into $5 for the Tesio Stakes and is now second favourite behind Salty Pearl.

Too Darn Discreet has also attracted support, firming from $8 into $6.50, while Private Legacy has shortened from $26 into $15.

With showers forecast for Saturday, Mr Brightside’s connections will be hoping the weather provides some assistance as the popular gelding attempts to bounce back in the Crystal Mile.

He’s currently $4.50 in a market that has seen relatively little activity. Another Wil has attracted some support, shortening from $8 into $6, while last year’s Cox Plate runner-up Buckaroo has firmed from $15 into $11.

There’s been considerably more action in the Red Anchor Stakes for the three-year-olds, with Peyton firming from $8 into $5 and Punxatawney Phil shortening from $11 into $5. The pair have displaced Barracks at the head of TAB’s market.

Randwick: Global Goal heads Spring Champion Stakes betting

The filly Global Goal is favourite to claim the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes, heading TAB’s market at $2.80.

Proxima Dea is next at $4.50, ahead of Stormy Marco at $6.

Crescent King has been the standout early mover in the Brian Crowley Stakes, firming from $2.80 into $2.40. He’s now a clear favourite ahead of Ciaron’s Star at $3.50.

Central Europe heads betting for the Callander-Presnell at $2.50, but there has been support for two of his rivals. Omolong has firmed from $6 into $4.50, while Why So Hard has shortened from $6 into $4.60.

Both the Brian Crowley and Callander-Presnell are named in honour of giants of the Australian racing media.

Randwick: Lazzura holds firm as Tom Kitten shortens

Lazzura has a strong grip on favouritism in The Invitation at $2.30.

Verona Rose has attracted support, firming from $7 into $6, while at longer odds Arabian Rose and Super Smink have both shortened marginally from $26 into $25.

Lindermann remains the horse to beat in the Craven Plate at $2.30, but punters have shown interest in Tom Kitten, who has firmed from $4.50 into $3.50.

With acceptances still to come on Wednesday, there’s plenty of time for further market movement ahead of two of the spring’s biggest meetings.

All prices courtesy of TAB and correct at the time of writing. Markets are all-in, with acceptances to be taken Wednesday.

Tags: AelianaCeolwulfCox PlateFlemingtonmarket moversRandwickSpring Champion StakesTAB
Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh is the founder of Betsy and one of Australia’s most respected form analysts. A former executive at Racing.com and Racing Victoria, Matt has built a reputation for market-leading analysis, clear communication, and a deep understanding of both racing and wagering. With Betsy, he has assembled a team of trusted, high-quality form analysts dedicated to delivering expert analysis that will arm Betsy punters for a winning day at the races.

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