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Dubai Honour [BRadley Photos]

Dubai Honour [BRadley Photos]

Racelab’s In The Lab: Ratings reveal the key plays in Tancred Stakes & Australian Cup

Dubai Honour and Aeliana dominate the Tancred numbers, while Light Infantry Man shapes as the value play in a wide-open Australian Cup.

Matthew Collum by Matthew Collum
March 28, 2026
in NSW Racing
Reading Time: 8 mins read
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Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Group 1 races at Rosehill and Flemington using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s big races. 

To learn more about Racelab, please click here.

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In The Lab | Ranvet Stakes | Group 1 WFA 2000m

Horse Trainer Jockey Weight JTD Best RBM L3 Odds
Dubai Honour (IRE) W J Haggas T Marquand 59 110.5 112 $3.60
Vauban (FR) G Waterhouse & A Bott Tim Clark 59 110.5 110 $6.50
Soul Of Spain (IRE) C J Waller Tommy Berry 59 110.5 105 $17.00
Valiant King (GB) C J Waller K Mc Evoy 59 110.5 102 $34.00
Zarir (IRE) C J Waller S Clipperton 59 110.5 105 $151.00
River Of Stars (IRE) C J Waller J R Collett 57 108.1 104 $26.00
Piggyback C Maher Zac Lloyd 57 108.1 106 $27.00
Aeliana (NZ) C J Waller J B Mc Donald 56.5 107.5 109 $1.80

Small field of eight runners in the Tancred Stakes and there isn’t much speed on paper. Going through the ratings, there are only three horses that have ever done the JTD – Dubai Honour (five times), Vauban (once) and Aeliana (three times). You can see why the market has identified the top three. Aeliana is on the quick back up after winning the Ranvet Stakes last week – she is clearly the one to catch. That being said, Dubai Honour is all class and has runs on the board! He won this race last year fresh and looks ready to go again. Vauban was solid first-up winning the Sky High Stakes over 2000m and must be respected here.

Selections: Dubai Honour (WIN)

****************

In The Lab | Australian Cup | Group 1 WFA 2000m

Horse Trainer Jockey Weight JTD Best RBM L3 Odds
Tom Kitten A & S Freedman Craig Williams 59 110.5 111 $5.00
Light Infantry Man (FR) C Maher H Coffey 59 110.5 109 $18.00
Apulia Ben, Will & JD Hayes W Pike 59 110.5 107 $11.00
Just Fine (IRE) G Waterhouse & A Bott Jordan Childs 59 110.5 103 $61.00
Birdman (IRE) C J Waller B Melham 59 110.5 112 $3.60
Sabaj M Price & M Kent Jnr Beau Mertens 59 110.5 109 $12.00
Mark Twain (NZ) P Stokes Lachlan Neindorf 59 110.5 103 $35.0
Pride Of Jenni C Maher Declan Bates 57 108.3 111 $5.0
Damask Rose (NZ) M W Walker Jamie Melham 57 108.3 101 $46.0
Leica Lucy (NZ) C J Waller Damian Lane 57 108.3 106 $5.5
Basilinna (NZ) E & D Browne Jye McNeil 57 108.3 103 $201.0
Philia David Vandyke D W Stackhouse 57 108.3 102 $51.0

Field of twelve runners in the G1 Australian Cup over 2000m at Flemington. Speed will be fast with Pride Of Jenni taking up the running from Philia and Just Fine. Birdman and Light Infantry Man get lovely runs in behind the speed. Looking at the ratings and the market has identified the top three although Pride Of Jenni’s rating of 111 was in the Empire Rose Stakes over 1600m. Her last three runs over this distance she has been beaten a total of over 42 lengths rating 98, 91 and 98! I couldn’t possibly be with her here. Birdman was strong through the line winning the G2 Peter Young Stakes, he had a few favours that day and this is his toughest test to date. Tom Kitten has two wins on the bounce and the distance won’t be a problem. He generally runs his best races first- and second-up so I wouldn’t be surprised to seem him regress slightly here third-up from a wide draw. Leica Lucy has been screaming out for the distance, picks up frosty and will love the sting out. She’s primed for a big run. Light Infantry Man took out this race last year by 2L off a similar setup rating 112. I’m inclined to forgive his run last start considering he was in the worst ground at Caulfield – his SP was close to Birdman there too. He’s got the ratings to win and I’m happy to be on him at odds!

Selections: Light Infantry Man (EW)

Tags: Australian Cupbetting analysisFlemingtonGroup 1 racingHorse Racing TipsRacelabRosehillTancred Stakes
Matthew Collum

Matthew Collum

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Comment: Deductions are a mess. Racing needs a national solution.

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