Race 1 – 4:53PM Ladbrokes Mega Multi Maiden Plate (1000 METRES)
Not sold on #10 SHAHAR. Stable have one winner from their last 50 runners, which was in a BM56 at Hanging Rock. Also didn’t think her trails were that of a $1.85 pop. She had a couple of excuses in town as a 2yo last campaign and strikes a firm track for the first time, which are both positives, but he being so short presents opportunity elsewhere.
Have always had time for #2 ELLSWORTH who makes his debut. He has had several jump-outs, impressing in each. Some slight concern that he had a 1000m trial at Caulfield on November 20 and was then more than five weeks between hit-outs when having a soft 800m jump-out at Cranbourne leading into this, but if he runs up to his trial work he will prove awfully hard to beat. Jason Maskiell is an aggressive rider, so expect him to use gate one to be right on speed. He looks over the odds at $6.
Can also have something on #4 TIJOLA who resumes gelded for a new stable. He debuted in a strong race at Bendigo at one run last campaign and wasn’t disgraced on a heavy deck. Jump-outs this time in have been sharp.
Suggested bet:
Can’t come at the $1.85 fave #10 SHAHAR. Can win, but looks poisonous odds.
Main bet on #2 ELLSWORTH at $6, but also sending #4 TIJOLA around a decent winning result, too.
Race 3 – 6:07PM Springvale RSL Maiden Plate (1400 METRES)
The Hayes boys have been very patient with #15 MIKE’S HOPE who has been scratched several times from wide draws. He has had three jump-outs this time in and gone nicely in each. Suspect he can press forward from gate two and get a lovely run. This isn’t an overly strong maiden to kick-off his career and 1400m looks ideal.
#2 BLACK COAL has always trilled better than he has raced. Struck a wet track at Sale first up when doing plenty of work up on speed. Suspect he will improve notably back to dry ground and with that 1400m run under his belt.
$9 VALEDICTORIAN has had his chances in similar quality of maidens. He did sit deep last time out and maybe stepping to 1400m for the first time will assist – but he’s easily opposed at $3.20.
Suggested bet:
Backing #15 MIKE’S HOPE, smaller bet on #2 BLACK COAL
