The build-up to this year’s Cox Plate has felt quite different from previous editions. Perhaps it isn’t a vintage edition, as said by legendary commentator Bruce McAvaney describing it on SEN during the week. Yes, it may be missing a warrior like Mr Brightside, the talented enigma Ceolwulf, the international presence of an Adelaide or State Of Rest type, and a Melbourne Cup contender after Sir Delius’ scratching put an end to that possibility.
However, the race still carries the sense that something special could unfold. With only eight runners, it threatens to become tactical, and you get the feeling that the likes of Via Sistina, Antino, Aeliana, and Nepotism are building towards peak performances on Saturday. Treasurethe Moment has shown glimpses of stardom, while Buckaroo and Light Infantry Man have produced performances in the past 12 months that prove they are top class and Attrition has the fairytale story.
Would I like more from the race I look forward to most each year? Of course. But there’s still enough there for The Valley, in its tired state, to conjure that last bit of magic and give us a contest worthy of applause.
As is often said during this week, “There is never a bad Cox Plate.” The optimist in me clings to that belief, knowing that legends aren’t made before the race. Think of So You Think in 2009, Winx in 2015, or Via Sistina last year; no one could have predicted the dominance of those wins or the manner in which they came about. That’s what makes the Cox Plate great. When those gates crash back at the top of the Moonee Valley straight on Saturday, everyone will hold their breath for the next two minutes, hoping to witness something spine-tingling or jaw-dropping.
Much has been made of the Turnbull Stakes trio. Via Sistina, the defending champion, hasn’t been at her absolute best but returns to The Valley and will relish a stronger tempo. Antino is Mr Reliable, ridden by the man many say produced one of the best losing rides in Cox Plate history on Humidor in 2017, trained by Tony Gollan, who so often delivers on big days, and has been set for this race for 12 months since his Toorak triumph.
Aeliana is the X-factor. She’s been solid in all three runs this preparation, has one of The Valley’s favourite sons aboard in Hugh Bowman, and is trained by the master, Chris Waller, a man who knows better than most how to peak on Grand Final day. All three can win the Cox Plate in my opinion, but it’s the three-year-old Nepotism who piques my interest.
I, like many, have always loved that three-year-olds add a different dimension to this weight-for-age classic. Often, they haven’t faced older horses until this very day, yet they frequently rise above expectations and figure in the finish.
In the last sixty years, eleven three-year-olds have won the W.S. Cox Plate. It began with Star Affair for Hall of Famer Pat Hyland in 1965. Rajah Sahib (1968) was guided by another icon, George Moore. Kiwi Daryl’s Joy won in 1969 before heading to the United States. Geoff Murphy claimed the first of his two Cox Plates in 1970 with Abdul, followed by the legendary Taj Rossi in 1973, who tore apart the spring for trainer Bart Cummings. Despite his brief reign, Taj Rossi is remembered as a genuine champion.
Then came iron filly Surround in 1975, the only filly ever to win the race, and nine years later, T.J. Smith’s outstanding Red Anchor in 1984, who completed the Caulfield Guineas–Cox Plate–Victoria Derby treble in just four weeks. He remains the last to achieve that feat and was named Australian Horse of the Year for his electrifying spring.
Those names belong to horses I admire through history books, none I truly connect with, having been born in 1996.
Still, I feel a connection to Octagonal, who won in 1995 for Shane Dye, because he sired my first favourite horse, Lonhro. I later learned just how good “Occie” was and grew to love watching replays of his thrilling win over Mahogany. Nine years later, his sire Zabeel produced another Cox Plate winner in Savabeel (2004), who scored a knockout victory in a field that included Elvstroem, Grand Armee, Fields Of Omagh, and Starcraft. Remarkably, he came off a Spring Champion Stakes win, and 21 years later, those two races are now run on the same day.
The go-to three-year-old winner in modern times is, of course, So You Think. His 2009 win was the first that genuinely amazed me. A raw colt having just his fifth start, he went to the front under Glen Boss and kept running, defeating another three-year-old in Manhattan Rain. That day, he announced himself a star before returning a year later to confirm his champion status.
Shamus Award may have been a maiden when he won in 2013, but his Caulfield Guineas run was enormous, storming home from last to finish third behind Long John. Apprentice jockey Chad Schofield took him to the front in the Cox Plate, and he held off Happy Trails and Fiorente to score memorably.
That year doesn’t feel too dissimilar to this one, with race favourite Atlantic Jewel ruled out during the week due to injury, much like Sir Delius’ scratching this year. It’s A Dundeel was the up-and-coming star but was off his game after an interrupted preparation, a situation not unlike Treasurethe Moment’s recent colic scare.
Since then, Castelvecchio bumped into the megastar Lys Gracieux in 2019, and Anamoe was narrowly denied in 2021.
Since 2000, twenty-seven three-year-olds have contested the Cox Plate, with nine finishing in the placings and three winning.
Three-Year-Old Cox Plate Starters
2024- Broadsiding 3rd, Evaporate Last
2023- Militarize 8th, King Colorado Last
2021- Anamoe 2nd, Captivant Last
2020- Grandslam Last
2019- Castelvecchio 2nd
2017- Royal Symphony 4th
2016- Yankee Rose 3rd
2014- Sweynesse 8th, Wandjina 10th, Almalad 13th.
2013- Shamus Award 1st, Longjohn 9th
2012- All Too Hard 2nd, Pierro 3rd, Proisir 8th
2011- Helmet 8th
2009- So You Think 1st, Manhattan Rain 2nd
2008- Samantha Miss 3rd
2006- Miss Finland 6th
2005- Hotel Grand Last
2004- Savabeel 1st
2002- Bel Esprit 8th
2001- Viscount 3rd
Diving deeper, the key for a modern three-year-old to win the Cox Plate is to be ridden forward. Those who settle in the top three at the 800m mark have an excellent record of finishing in the top three, including all three winners in that period.
Three-Year-Olds Settled in Top 3 at the 800m in the Cox Plate
2024- Evaporate 3rd settling at 800m – Last at finish
2023- King Colorado 1st – Last
2021- Captivant 1st – Last
2020- Grandslam 1st – Last
2014- Almalad 2nd – 13th
2013- Shamus Award 1st – 1st
2012- Proisir 1st – 8th, All Too Hard 3rd – 2nd
2011- Helmet 1st – 8th
2009- So You Think 1st – 1st, Manhattan Rain 2nd – 2nd
2005- Hotel Grand 1st – Last
2004- Savabeel 3rd – 1st
2002- Bel Esprit 3rd – 8th
2001- Viscount 2nd – 3rd
The Hawkes stable knows what it takes to win a Cox Plate with a three-year-old, having done so with Octagonal in 1995 and going close with Viscount in 2001 and All Too Hard in 2012.
This year, they saddle up the most intriguing runner, Nepotism. A Group 1 Champagne Stakes winner at two, he produced an improved effort in this year’s Caulfield Guineas, unlucky not to finish fourth with clear running. His Guineas performance draws parallels with Shamus Award and So You Think, both of whom ran strong miles in the Guineas from the back before leading throughout in their Cox Plate triumphs.
I’m not saying Nepotism is So You Think, or even Shamus Award, but he has the potential to run a huge race on Saturday and add his name to the rich history of three-year-olds in the W.S. Cox Plate. In my eyes, he’s a leading player this weekend, and at 20-1, he’s worth an each-way ticket in the final Cox Plate to be run at The Valley as we know it.
Bring on the ‘Best 2 Minutes in Sport’ on Saturday!
